← LeaderboardsInvestigatorsiAttributed = a PI's even-split share of each grant — a $1M grant with 2 PIs counts $500K each.
Predictive Science Incorporated
San Diego, CA
$23,193,351
Total funding
44
Grants
Funding over time
peak $10.6M · FY2009–25$20M$15M$10M$5M$0
'09
'10
'11
'12
'13
'14
'15
'16
'17
'18
'19
'20
'21
'22
'23
'24
'25
Funding mix
By agency
NASA$17,799,831 · 29
NSF$5,393,520 · 15
By mechanism
—$23,193,351 · 44
Investigators at Predictive Science Incorporated
InvestigatorsiAttributed = a PI's even-split share of each grant — a $1M grant with 2 PIs counts $500K each.
Exposure= the full size of every grant they're on ($1M each).
Rising Stars
First grant in the last 5 yrs
Not enough data
Emerging Leaders
6–10 yrs in
Not enough data
All-Time
Most funded here, all years
Not enough data
Largest grants
DYNAMCS: A DYNAMICALLY EVOLVING MODEL OF CMES AND SEPS$3,002,893
· FY2022 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration
USING A COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL AND PHYSICS-BASED MODELS WE WILL DEVELOP A ROBUST SCHEME FOR PREDICTING THE VALUE OF BZ AT 1 AU (AS WELL AS ITS ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTIES) AT LEAST 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE. OUR DIVERSE TEAM INCLUDES THE NECESSARY EXPERTISE TO ACHIEVE THE GOALS OF THE PROPOSED WORK AND OUR UNIQUE COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH WILL PROVIDE BOTH A QUANTITATIVE GROUND-TRUTH FOR A VARIETY OF TECHNIQUES AS WELL AS A RIGOROUS METHODOLOGY FOR IMPROVING PREDICTABILITY.$1,727,095
· FY2020 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Collaborative Research: PREEVENTS Track 2: Quantifying the Risk of Extreme Solar Eruptions (QUEST)$1,690,434
· FY2019 · GEO
USING A COMBINATION OF DATA ANALYSIS GLOBAL MODELING AND THEORETICAL DEVELOPMENT WE PROPOSE TO ADDRESS THREE FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS RELEVANT TO PARKER SOLAR PROBE (PSP) OBSERVATIONS.$1,642,477
· FY2020 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration
OUR PROPOSED PROJECT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE OUR CURRENT UNDERSTANDING OF CME EVOLUTION.$1,396,666
· FY2020 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration
USING A COMBINATION OF STATISTICAL AND PHYSICS-BASED MODELS WE WILL DEVELOP A ROBUST SCHEME FOR PREDICTING THE VALUE OF BZ AT 1 AU(AS WELL AS ITS ASSOCIATED UNCERTAINTIES) AT LEAST 24 HOURS IN ADVANCE. OUR DIVERSE TEAM INCLUDES THE NECESSARY EXPERTISE TO ACHIEVE THEGOALS OF THE PROPOSED WORK AND OUR UNIQUE COMPREHENSIVE APPROACH WILL PROVIDE BOTH A QUANTITATIVE GROUND-TRUTH FOR A VARIETY OF TECHNIQUES AS WELL AS A RIGOROUS METHODOLOGY FOR IMPROVING PREDICTABILITY.$923,122
· FY2015 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration
THE SOLAR WIND EXPANDS OUTWARD FROM THE SOLAR CORONA AND FILLS THE HELIOSPHERE. IT IS THE MEDIUM BY WHICH SOLAR-DRIVEN SPACE WEATHER PHENOMENA TRANSMIT THEIR EFFECTS TO EARTH AND THE SURROUNDING SPACE ENVIRONMENT. FUNDAMENTAL QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE WIND'S ORIGIN AND ACCELERATION ITS CONNECTION TO SMALLER-SCALE DYNAMICAL PHENOMENA CLOSE TO THE SUN AND THE PARTITIONING OF THE WIND INTO FAST AND SLOW STREAMS.$901,205
· FY2020 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration
LINKING SURFACE MAGNETIC FIELDS TO THE STRUCTURE AND DYNAMICS OF THE SOLAR CORONA$749,573
· FY2022 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration
CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CMES) ARE LARGE ERUPTIONS OF MAGNETIZED PLASMA FROM THE SUN INTO THE HELIOSPHERE. THERE EXISTS LITTLE DOUBT THAT MOST CMES ARE COMPRISED OF MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES (MFRS) ALTHOUGH THEIR ORIGIN AND TIME OF FORMATION HAS BEEN DEBA$749,190
· FY2020 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration
PROMINENCES (OR FILAMENTS) ARE ELONGATED COLD AND DENSE PLASMA STRUCTURES THAT ARE OBSERVED IN THE SOLAR CORONA FOR UP TO SEVERAL MONTHS BEFORE THEY OFTEN ERUPT AS PART OF A CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME). IT IS NOW WELL ESTABLISHED THAT PROMINENCES ARE SUSPENDED BY SHEARED/TWISTED MAGNETIC FIELDS WHICH ALSO THERMALLY ISOLATE THE PROMINENCE PLASMA FROM THE 100 TIMES HOTTER AND LESS DENSE CORONA. HOWEVER THE DETAILS OF PROMINENCE FORMATION AND OF THE EVOLUTION OF PROMINENCE PLASMA IN CMES AND IN INTERPLANETARY SPACE ARE NOT YET WELL UNDERSTOOD. THE PRESENTLY MOST FAVORED SCENARIO FOR PROMINENCE FORMATION IS THE "THERMAL NON-EQUILIBRIUM" (TNE) MECHANISM WHICH IS BASED ON CORONAL PLASMA CONDENSATION RESULTING FROM FOOT-POINT HEATING AND PLASMA EVAPORATION. THIS MECHANISM HAS BEEN MODELED EXTENSIVELY FOR ONE-DIMENSIONAL (1D) MAGNETIC CONFIGURATIONS. TIME-DEPENDENT FULLY 3D MAGNETOHYDRODYNAMIC (MHD) SIMULATIONS WHICH ARE REQUIRED FOR VALIDATION AND FOR A DEEPER UNDERSTANDING OF THE UNDERLYING PHYSICS EXIST ONLY SINCE A FEW YEARS. VERY RECENTLY THE FIRST SIMULATION OF THE ERUPTION OF A PROMINENCE PRODUCED BY EVAPORATION AND CONDENSATION WAS PRESENTED. HOWEVER ONLY IDEALIZED FLUXROPE CONFIGURATIONS AND AD HOC HEATING FUNCTIONS HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED SO FAR AND THE INTERPLANETARY PROPAGATION OF SELF-CONSISTENTLY FORMED PROMINENCE PLASMA HAS NOT YET BEEN MODELED. MORE SOPHISTICATED SIMULATIONS THAT INCLUDE REALISTIC MAGNETIC CONFIGURATIONS AND PHYSIC-BASED HEATING MODELS ARE THEREFORE NEEDED. WE PROPOSE TO USE OUR THERMODYNAMIC MHD CODE MAS TO SYSTEMATICALLY MODEL AND INVESTIGATE THE FORMATION ERUPTION AND INTERPLANETARY PROPAGATION OF PROMINENCES. SIGNIFICANTLY EXTENDING EXISTING SIMULATIONS WE WILL CONSIDER DIFFERENT IDEALIZED FLUXROPE CONFIGURATIONS AND USE THE PHYSICS-BASED WAVE-TURBULENCE-DRIVEN (WTD) FORMALISM FOR HEATING THE CORONA. EMPLOYING OUR EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE IN SIMULATING SOLAR ERUPTIONS WE WILL ALSO SIMULATE FOR THE FIRST TIME THE FORMATION ERUPTION AND INTERPLANETARY PROPAGATION OF OBSERVED PROMINENCES. NASA SPACECRAFT OBSERVATIONS WILL BE USED TO CONSTRUCT AND CONSTRAIN THESE CONFIGURATIONS AND FOR A DIRECT COMPARISON WITH THE SIMULATION RESULTS. IN TURN WE WILL USE OUR RESULTS TO INTERPRET SUCH OBSERVATIONS AND IN SITU MEASUREMENTS. OUR INNOVATIVE APPROACH WILL ALLOW US TO ADDRESS IMPORTANT SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS SUCH AS: (1) HOW DO THE GEOMETRY AND THE ELECTRIC CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF A FLUX ROPE EFFECT THE FORMATION AND PERSISTENCE OF PROMINENCE PLASMA? (2) CAN WTD HEATING SELF-CONSISTENTLY LEAD TO PROMINENCE FORMATION OR IS LOCALIZED FOOT-POINT HEATING STILL REQUIRED? (3) WHAT DETERMINES HOW MUCH PROMINENCE PLASMA IS EJECTED FROM THE SUN DURING AN ERUPTION AND TO WHAT EXTENT IS IT HEATED BY FLARE RECONNECTION? (4) HOW EXACTLY IS PROMINENCE PLASMA DISTRIBUTED IN CMES? (5) HOW DOES PROMINENCE PLASMA EVOLVE DURING ITS PROPAGATION IN THE OUTER CORONA AND INTERPLANETARY SPACE?NASA'S H-SR PROGRAM ENCOURAGES INVESTIGATIONS THAT COMBINE NUMERICAL MODELING WITH DATA ANALYSIS/INTERPRETATION AND ADDRESS (AT LEAST) ONE OF THE FOUR HELIOSPHERIC DECADAL SURVEY GOALS. THE WORK PROPOSED HERE WILL ACCOMPLISH THAT BY PERFORMING STATE-OF-THE ART MHD SIMULATIONS AND BY USING AND INTERPRETING OBSERVATIONS FROM NASA SPACECRAFT. IT ADDRESSES THE SURVEY GOALS "TO DETERMINE THE ORIGINS OF THE SUN S ACTIVITY AND PREDICT THE VARIATIONS IN THE SPACE ENVIRONMENT" AND "TO DISCOVER AND CHARACTERIZE FUNDAMENTAL PROCESSES THAT OCCUR BOTH WITHIN THE HELIOSPHERE AND THROUGHOUT THE UNIVERSE".$707,355
· FY2020 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration
SHINE: How Does Surface Flux Evolution Determine the Structure and Dynamics of the Solar Corona and Inner Heliosphere?$578,828
· FY2025 · GEO
SHINE: A Numerical Investigation into Coronal Mass Ejections (CME-CME) Interaction Events$545,775
· FY2023 · GEO
WE PROPOSE AN EFFORT AIMED AT BRINGING TOGETHER RECENT ADVANCES IN THE THEORY AND MODELING OF TURBULENT HEATING IN THE SOLAR ATMOSPHERE WITH MODERN OBSERVATIONAL CONSTRAINTS. OUR APPROACH WILL BE TWOFOLD ON ONE END INCORPORATING NEW TECHNIQUES IN MODELING THE GLOBAL SOLAR CORONA AND SOLAR WIND AND ON THE OTHER USING THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL CONSTRAINTS TO BENCHMARK IMPROVE AND POSSIBLY RULE OUT MECHANISMS AND FORMULATIONS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS A VAST AREA OF STUDY WE FOCUS ON TWO KEY SCIENCE QUESTIONS SPECIFICALLY SELECTED TO SPAN A LARGE DYNAMIC RANGE OF SCALE AND SCIENTIFIC INTEREST FROM THE CORONA TO ONE AU NAMELY: 1) IS THE RELATIVELY STEADY HEATING AND ACCELERATION THAT WE EXPECT FROM WAVE TURBULENCE SUFFICIENT TO EXPLAIN THE RELATIVE CHARGE-STATE AND SPEED STRATIFICATION OF THE FAST AND SLOW SOLAR WIND? 2) CAN THE HEATING AND ACCELERATION FROM WAVE TURBULENCE ACCOUNT FOR THE PLASMA STRUCTURING AND NON-THERMAL WIDTHS MEASURED IN POLAR CORONAL HOLES? TO ADDRESS THESE QUESTIONS THE CENTRAL THEME OF OUR RESEARCH PLAN WILL BE CONDUCTING FOCUSED REALISTIC EXPERIMENTS USING A MULTIDIMENSIONAL THERMODYNAMIC MHD MODEL OF THE SOLAR CORONA AND SOLAR WIND. WE WILL INTERPRET OUR RESULTS IN THE DIRECT CONTEXT OF OBSERVATIONS AND FORWARD-MODELED OBSERVABLES. OUR HEATING AND ACCELERATION MODEL WILL BE BASED ON A WAVE-TURBULENCE-DRIVEN (WTD) FORMULATION THAT CAPTURES THE MACROSCOPIC PROPAGATION REFLECTION AND DISSIPATION OF LOW FREQUENCY ALFVENIC TURBULENCE. PART OF THE RESEARCH PLAN WILL FOCUS ON TESTING AND BENCHMARKING APPROXIMATIONS FOR THE HEATING AND REFLECTION TERMS IN THE PRESENCE OF MAGNETIC INTERFACE REGIONS SUCH AS CORONAL STREAMERS AND THE FAST AND SLOW WIND INTERFACE. MOST IMPORTANTLY OUR RESEARCH PLAN EMPHASIZES CAREFUL OBSERVATIONAL SYNTHESIS AND MODEL COMPARISON---EXAMINING NOT ONLY FULLSUN EUV IMAGES BUT ALSO EMISSION LINES AND LINE-WIDTHS AT VARIOUS REGIONS IN THE CORONA AND CHARGE STATES IN THE SOLAR WIND. WE CAN ACCOMPLISH THIS BY LEVERAGING A NEW CAPABILITY IN OUR MODEL ONE THAT ALLOWS US TO TRACK THE TIME-DEPENDENT NON-EQUILIBRIUM IONIZATION STATE OF MINOR IONS AT ALL SPATIAL LOCATIONS IN THE MODEL. THIS WILL ENABLE US TO VASTLY IMPROVE OUR CALCULATIONS OF SYNTHETIC OBSERVABLES ALL THE WAY FROM THE LOW CORONA (SOHO/EIT STEREO/EUVI SDO/AIA AND HINODE/EIS) TO THE EXTENDED CORONA (SOHO/UVCS) TO 1AU (ACE/WIND AND ULYSSES). THIS PROJECT IS ALSO TIMELY AND RELEVANT TO THE GOALS OF NASA AND THE HELIOPHYSICS DECADAL SURVEY. OUR EFFORT BRINGS TOGETHER RECENT ADVANCES IN GLOBAL CORONAL MODELING AND VETS THEM USING A WEALTH OF INFORMATION GLEANED FROM NASA MISSIONS AND INSTRUMENTS. BRIDGING THE GAP BETWEEN NUMERICAL MODELS AND REMOTE SENSING DIAGNOSTICS HAS BECOME CRUCIAL FOR INTERPRETING THE COMPLEXITY OF MODERN OBSERVATIONS AND THIS SITUATION WILL CONTINUE WITH THE UPCOMING PARKER SOLAR PROBE AND SOLAR ORBITER MISSIONS. THIS CONTEXT IS SPECIFICALLY RELEVANT FOR THE SCIENCE OF POLAR CORONAL HOLES AND THE SLOW AND FAST PROPERTIES OF THE SOLAR WIND WHICH WE STUDY HERE. TO ADDRESS THESE QUESTIONS WE HAVE FORMED A TEAM WITH A BROAD RANGE OF EXPERTISE FROM ANALYTICAL THEORY TO NUMERICAL MODELS TO OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS---A MAKEUP REPRESENTATIVE OF THE CURRENT SCOPE AND GOALS OF THE HELIOPHYSICS SUPPORTING RESEARCH PROGRAM.$533,868
· FY2020 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration
THE BASIC PICTURE OF A TWO-STATE SOLAR WIND IN PART ED BY THE ULYSSES MISSION HAS BEEN CHALLENGED MANY TIMES OVER THE YEARS. MOST RECENTLY RESEARCHERS HAVE APPLIED MORE SOPHISTICATED ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES TO BROADEN THE LIKELY NUMBER OF FUNDAMENTAL$524,851
· FY2020 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration
OBJECTIVES: THE SOLAR MAGNETIC FIELD IS THE ENERGY SOURCE FOR VIOLENT SOLAR ACTIVITY IN THE FORM OF FLARES CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CMES) AND PROMINENCE ERUPTIONS. THE ENERGY IS BELIEVED TO BE STORED AS FREE MAGNETIC ENERGY (ENERGY ABOVE THE POTENTIAL FIELD STATE) PRIOR TO ERUPTION. ONE OF THE OUTSTANDING PROBLEMS IN SOLAR PHYSICS IS TO UNDERSTAND THE MECHANISM(S) OF THIS ENERGY RELEASE TO THE POINT OF OBTAINING A PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY. AN INTRIGUING RESULT FROM RECENT SIMULATIONS (E.G. AMARI ET AL. NATURE 514 2014) IS THAT THE ENERGY OF A PARTICULAR FIELD THE PARTIALLY OPEN FIELD APPEARS TO BOUND THE ENERGY STORAGE OF AN ERUPTING REGION I.E. WHEN THE FREE ENERGY OF A REGION APPROACHES THIS BOUND THE CONFIGURATION ERUPTS. IF THIS PROVES TO BE TRUE IN GENERAL IT WOULD PROVIDE A POWERFUL WAY TO ESTIMATE THE POSSIBLE ENERGY RELEASE PRIOR TO ERUPTION. THE PRIMARY OBJECTIVE OF THIS PROPOSAL IS TO DIRECTLY TEST THIS THEORETICAL IDEA USING SOLAR DYNAMICS OBSERVATORY (SDO) HELIOSEISMIC AND MAGNETIC IMAGER (HMI) AND ATMOSPHERIC IMAGING ASSEMBLY (AIA) DATA. DATA: OUR INVESTIGATION WILL PRIMARILY USE SDO HMI LINE-OF-SIGHT AND VECTOR MAGNETOGRAMS AND SDO AIA EUV IMAGES. METHODOLOGY: THE ALY-STURROCK THEOREM (ALY APJ 375 1991; STURROCK APJ 380 1991) STATES THAT A FORCE-FREE MAGNETIC FIELD CANNOT HAVE AN ENERGY THAT EXCEEDS THAT OF THE OPEN FIELD OF A MAGNETIC FLUX DISTRIBUTION; IF THE THEOREM HOLDS THE MAXIMUM FREE ENERGY THAT CAN BE STORED IN A REGION CORRESPONDS TO THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENERGIES OF THE OPEN AND POTENTIAL FIELDS. HOWEVER IT IS DIFFICULT TO APPLY THIS THEOREM TO REAL FLARES/CMES WHICH OPEN ONLY A PORTION OF THE FIELD SO THAT THE ALY-STURROCK THEOREM CAN GREATLY OVERESTIMATE THE POSSIBLE STORED ENERGY. SIMULATION STUDIES HAVE FOUND THAT THE ENERGY OF A CLOSELY-RELATED FIELD THE PARTIALLY OPEN FIELD MAY PROVIDE A MORE PRACTICAL BOUND FOR THE ENERGY THAT CAN BE STORED IN AN ERUPTING REGION. THIS FIELD IS DEFINED TO BE OPEN EVERYWHERE IN A SUBDOMAIN S_O ON THE SOLAR SURFACE AND CLOSED EVERYWHERE ELSE. S_O IS THE REGION WHERE THE FIELD OPENS AND/OR RECONNECTS. A RECENTLY DEVELOPED FLARE-RIBBON DATABASE (KAZACHENKO ET AL. APJ 845 2017) CAN PROVIDE A CRITICAL TEST OF THIS THEORY. THIS DATABASE INCLUDES OVER 3000 FLARES FROM 2010 TO EARLY 2016. THE FLARE RIBBON MASKS (THE AREA SWEPT OUT BY THE RIBBONS DURING THE FLARE) ARE MEASURED USING AIA 1600A IMAGES AND PROVIDE A USEFUL ESTIMATE FOR S_O IN THE THEORY. WE WILL USE THESE MASKS TO DEFINE S_O AND COMPUTE PARTIALLY OPEN FIELDS USING HMI MAGNETIC FIELDS AS BOUNDARY CONDITIONS. WE WILL PERFORM THESE CALCULATIONS FOR A WIDE RANGE OF ERUPTIVE FLARES AND COMPARE THE FREE ENERGY LIMIT CALCULATED FOR THE PARTIALLY OPEN FIELDS TO NOAA GOES X-RAY DATA. OUR STUDIES WILL COMPREHENSIVELY TEST THIS THEORY AS WE EXPECT THERE SHOULD BE A SIGNIFICANT CORRELATION BETWEEN THE PARTIALLY OPEN FIELD ENERGIES AND GOES X-RAY FLUENCES. THE CALCULATION OF PARTIALLY OPEN FIELDS INVOLVES SOLUTIONS OF LAPLACE'S EQUATION AND FIELD LINE TRACING. WE HAVE DEVELOPED FAST SOLVERS AND TOOLS FOR THESE TASKS MAKING IT FEASIBLE TO COMPUTE HUNDREDS OF CASES. RELEVANCE: OUR PROPOSED WORK ADDRESSES KEY GOALS OF THE SDO MISSION (WHAT MAGNETIC FIELD CONFIGURATIONS LEAD TO THE CMES FILAMENT ERUPTIONS AND FLARES THAT PRODUCE ENERGETIC PARTICLES AND RADIATION?) AND THE HELIOPHYSICS DECADAL SURVEY (DETERMINE THE ORIGINS OF THE SUN'S ACTIVITY AND PREDICT THE VARIATIONS IN THE SPACE ENVIRONMENT).$521,196
· FY2020 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration
THE RISE OF SUNRUNNER: A NEW MODEL FOR PREDICTING THE PROPERTIES OF INTERPLANETARY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS AT 1 AU$498,406
· FY2020 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration
ONE OF THE MAJOR CHALLENGES IN HELIOPHYSICS IS THE CHARACTERIZATION OF THE GLOBAL STRUCTURE AND EVOLUTION OF CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (CMES) AFTER THEY ERUPT FROM THE SUN. CURRENTLY THE MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION OF CMES IS EITHER INFERRED INDIRECTLY FROM$461,717
· FY2022 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration
WE PROPOSE TO DEVELOP A SOPHISTICATED MODELING CAPABILITY TO CAPITALIZE ON THE UNIQUE MEASUREMENTS EXPECTED FROM SOLAR PROBE PLUS (SPP) AND SOLAR ORB$451,713
· FY2015 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration
THE CONFLUENCE OF THE STEREO AND SDO MISSIONS HAS ALLOWED A LARGE FRACTION OF THE SUN TO BE SIMULTANEOUSLY OBSERVED FOR MANY YEARS AT EXTREME ULTRAVI$410,000
· FY2017 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration
INTEGRATED MHD-FOCUSED TRANSPORT MODELING OF SOLAR PARTICLE EVENTS$399,954
· FY2020 · National Aeronautics and Space Administration