Behavioral Epidemiology: Applications of Agent-Based Modeling to Infectious Disea

Brookings Institution, Washington DC

Investigators

Linked publications & trials

Abstract

PI: Dr. Joshua M. Epstein[unreadable] Title: Behavioral Epidemiology: Applications of Agent-Based Modeling to[unreadable] Infectious Diseases, Chronic Diseases, and Disaster Preparedness[unreadable] Abstract:[unreadable] Models are central in important areas of public health, including pandemic flu,[unreadable] chronic disease, and disaster preparedness. However, behavioral factors are[unreadable] virtually ignored in current modeling, a crucial defect. Behavior can[unreadable] fundamentally shape the spread of infectious diseases (such as influenza). People[unreadable] may flout, or not know, government containment directives. Distrustful[unreadable] communities may refuse vaccine. Rather than self-isolate, exposed individuals[unreadable] may flee in fear, accelerating the spatial spread of disease. Epidemic modeling to[unreadable] date has virtually ignored these behavioral adaptations and their consequences.[unreadable] Behavior also shapes chronic disease outcomes-yet no behavioral mechanism is[unreadable] currently offered to explain, for example, the striking historical dynamics of[unreadable] obesity. Theoretical and empirical work could identify such mechanisms,[unreadable] including peer effects. Behavior would also shape health outcomes in a disaster.[unreadable] In an urban toxic plume release, the natural impulse to flee could amplify[unreadable] congestion, undermining evacuation, and increasing exposure. Are there simple[unreadable] decentralized rules or tailored messages that could, instead, generate efficient[unreadable] evacuation? Behavior under stress may be based on poor information,[unreadable] unwarranted fear, or entrenched social norms. These possibilities should[unreadable] condition risk communication and the design of containment/preventive[unreadable] strategies across the spectrum of public health threats. At present, they do not.[unreadable] A central goal of this research, then, is to model boundedly rational endogenous[unreadable] behavioral adaptations and their feedback effects on spatio-temporal disease[unreadable] dynamics. The Project covers both the epidemiology of behaviors (such as panic,[unreadable] non-compliance, distrust) and the role of behavioral factors in the progress of[unreadable] infectious and chronic diseases.[unreadable] The core analytical technique will be agent-based modeling by multi-[unreadable] disciplinary research teams. The PI is a recognized pioneer in this innovative[unreadable] field, and has directed successful multi-disciplinary agent modeling projects on[unreadable] Smallpox, Archaeology, Economics, and Civil Violence, as recounted in his book,[unreadable] Generative Social Science: Studies in Agent-Based Computational Modeling[unreadable] (Princeton, 2006).