A Dynamic Model of Teen Sex, Abortion and Childbearing

Duke University, Durham NC

Investigators

Abstract

(Revised Abstract) DESCRIPTION: Teenage pregnancy rates, although hitting a new low in 1999, are still very high in the U. S. with 46.6 births per 1000 teenage women. Using secondary data analysis, we will estimate a dynamic discrete choice model of teen decisions about sexual activity, contraception, and other pregnancy outcomes. By estimating the dynamic model, we will be able to account for persistence due to habit formation. The dynamic model will then be used to forecast both short and long run teen pregnancy and birth rates under different state policies regarding sex education, and access to reproductive health services.