THE HIGHLY PATHOGENIC AVIAN INFLUENZA (HPAI) OUTBREAK IN U.S. DAIRY CATTLE IS A MAJOR THREAT TO U.S. CATTLE PRODUCERS, U.S. FOOD SECURITY, AND THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR OF THE U.S. ECONOMY. THE OUTBREAK IS ESPECIALLY CHALLENGING BECAUSE IT IS THE FIRST TIME THAT HPAI HAS BEEN FOUND IN CATTLE. WE KNOW THAT SHIPMENTS OF DAIRY CATTLE HAVE MOVED HPAI OVER LONG DISTANCES BETWEEN STATES, BUT WE DON'T KNOW MUCH YET ABOUT HOW TO PREDICT OR STOP THE SPREAD. THE GOAL OF THIS PROJECT IS TO CREATE PREDICTIONS OF HOW HPAI COULD CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE U.S. BASED ON CATTLE SHIPMENTS AND DISEASE DATA. WE HAVE THREE OBJECTIVES: 1) WE WILL COLLECT DATA ON CATTLE SHIPMENTS AND THE HPAI OUTBREAK; 2) WE WILL DEVELOP PREDICTIONS ABOUT U.S. CATTLE SHIPMENTS AND HPAI TRANSMISSION USING THE COLLECTED DATA (OBJ. 1) AND OTHER INFORMATION; 3) WE WILL USE THE HPAI DISEASE PREDICTIONS TO UNDERSTAND HOW HPAI IS SPREADING IN THE U.S. AND HOW IT CAN BE CONTROLLED. THIS PROJECT WILL GIVE US A WAY TO DETERMINE THE RISK OF HPAI SPREADING INTO NEW LOCATIONS IN THE U.S. AND WHAT CAN BE DONE TO PREVENT THAT SPREAD. WE WILL WORK WITH THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND STATE VETERINARIANS TO ENSURE THAT THE RESULTS OF THIS PROJECT ARE USED TO HELP CREATE SURVEILLANCE AND RESPONSE STRATEGIES FOR HPAI. THE RESULTS OF THIS RESEARCH PROJECT WILL PROVIDE AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE ONGOING HPAI OUTBREAK AND WILL BE USED TO PROTECT THE INTERESTS OF INDIVIDUAL PRODUCERS AND THE CATTLE INDUSTRY IN GENERAL FROM THE IMPACTS OF HPAI OUTBREAKS NOW AND IN THE FUTURE.