AS WOLF POPULATIONS RECOVER ACROSS THE UNITED STATES, INCREASED ATTACKS ON LIVESTOCK HAVE LED TO CALLS FOR LEGALIZED WOLF HUNTING. HOWEVER, REDUCING WOLF POPULATIONS THROUGH LEGALIZED HUNTING DOES NOT ALWAYS DECREASE LIVESTOCK ATTACKS; SOMETIMES, WOLF CULLS ARE FOLLOWED BY INCREASED DEPREDATIONS. THIS COUNTERINTUITIVE PATTERN MAY EMERGE BECAUSE LEGALIZED KILLING OF WOLVES CAN DECREASE WOLF PACK SIZES OR CAUSE PACKS TO BREAK APART. SMALLER PACKS AND DISPERSING WOLVES MAY BE MORE LIKELY TO TARGET LIVESTOCK THAN WILD PREY. TO EFFECTIVELY CONSERVE WOLVES AND PROTECT LIVESTOCK, IT IS CRITICAL TO UNDERSTAND THE FEEDBACK BETWEEN WOLF SOCIAL DYNAMICS AND WHICH PREY (WILD OR LIVESTOCK) THEY CHOOSE TO HUNT. MY PRELIMINARY MATHEMATICAL MODELING SUGGESTS A STRONG LINK BETWEEN PREDATOR GROUP SIZE, PREY CHOICE, AND PREY POPULATION SIZE. DURING THE AFRI EWD FELLOWSHIP, I WILL DEVELOP AND ANALYZE A NOVEL MATHEMATICAL MODEL TO EXPLORE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WOLF PACK FORMATION, WILD PREY AVAILABILITY, AND THE FREQUENCY OF LIVESTOCK ATTACKS. I WILL THEN USE THE MODEL TO PREDICT THE IMPACT OF LETHAL (E.G. ALLOWING RECREATIONAL HUNTING OF WOLVES) AND NON-LETHAL MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES (USING GUARD DOGS AND TAKING CATTLE IN AT NIGHT) ON WOLF PACKS. THE PREDICTIONS FROM THESE MATHEMATICAL MODELS WILL BE TESTED USING DATA FROM PUBLISHED RESEARCH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PROJECT WILL PROMOTEECOSYSTEM HEALTH AROUND PASTORAL LANDS BY FINDING APPROACHES TO PREVENT WOLF-LIVESTOCK CONFLICT WHILE CONSERVING WOLVES. THE FINDINGS WILL BE SHARED WITH POLICYMAKERS, RANCHERS, AND CONSERVATIONISTS TO GUIDE PRACTICES PROTECTING LIVESTOCK AND WILDLIFE. THROUGH THIS FELLOWSHIP, I WILL PREPARE FOR A CAREER AS A PROFESSOR BY EXPANDING MY MATHEMATICAL SKILLS, DEVELOPING NEW EXPERTISE IN DATA ANALYSIS AND POPULATION GENETICS, AND PRESENTING MY RESEARCH TO DIVERSE AUDIENCES.
$225,000FY2025National Institute of Food and AgricultureUSDA
The Trustees Of Princeton University