** AWARDS ISSUED PRIOR TO JANUARY 20, 2025, WERE FUNDED UNDER PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATIONS AND MAY NOT REFLECT THE PRIORITIES AND POLICIES OF THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION.** AMONG SCIENTIFIC AND PUBLIC SPHERES, A COMMON NARRATIVE IS THAT WARMING TEMPERATURES WILL EXACERBATE PEST PROBLEMS IN CROPS. HOWEVER, THIS CONVICTION IS LARGELY BASED ON SCIENTIFIC STUDIES THAT ARE PERFORMED UNDER CONTROLLED LABORATORY CONDITIONS OR THAT USE PREDICTIVE THEORETICAL MODELS INSTEAD OF USING REAL FIELD POPULATIONS. ADDITIONALLY, THE FEW STUDIES THAT HAVE BEEN CONDUCTED IN THE FIELD ARE SEVERELY LIMITED IN SCOPE IN TERMS OF THE NUMBER OF YEARS, SPECIES, AND CROPS EXAMINED. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE YET TO UNDERSTAND HOW CLIMATE WARMING IS ACTUALLY AFFECTING MOST PEST POPULATIONS IN CROP FIELDS, AND SUBSEQUENTLY, HOW CLIMATE WARMING WILL AFFECT FOOD SECURITY IN THE COMING YEARS.TO ADDRESS THESE QUESTIONS, WE WILL INVESTIGATE THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE WARMING ON A SUITE OF CROP-ASSOCIATED ARTHROPODS USING A NOVEL APPROACH CALLED ECOINFORMATICS. THIS METHOD HARNESSES LONG-TERM DATA ORIGINALLY COLLECTED BY PEST CONTROL ADVISORS THAT WORK FOR CROP GROWERS, WHICH WE THEN REPURPOSED FOR SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH. THERE ARE MANY BENEFITS OF THIS APPROACH, BUT MOST NOTABLE IS THE SIZE OF THE DATASET, WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS CONTINENTS AND YEARS.USING THIS DATASET, WE WILL ANALYZE THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WARMING TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANCES OF OVER 25 PEST AND BENEFICIAL ARTHROPOD SPECIES TO DETERMINE WHICH SPECIES POPULATIONS INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO WARMING. THIS WILL ALLOW US TO IDENTIFY A SET OF PESTS WHOSE DAMAGE POTENTIAL WE EXPECT TO INTENSIFY IN COMING YEARS, WHICH WE CAN THEN SHARE WITH FARMERS AND RESEARCHERS TO HELP DIRECT RESEARCH AND PEST MANAGEMENT EFFORTS IN AREAS WHERE IT WILL BE MOST NEEDED. ADDITIONALLY, WE WILL DETERMINE IF CERTAIN SPECIES TRAITS CAN EXPLAIN THESE OBSERVED POPULATION CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO WARMING IN THE FIELD. THESE FINDINGS WILL BUILD THE FOUNDATION OF A PREDICTIVE, TRAIT-BASED FRAMEWORK FOR INTEGRATED PEST MANAGEMENT TO BETTER MITIGATE AND PREVENT CROP LOSS IN A WARMING WORLD.
$120,000FY2024National Institute of Food and AgricultureUSDA
University Of California, Davis