**AWARDS ISSUED PRIOR TO JANUARY 20, 2025, WERE FUNDED UNDER PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATIONS AND MAY NOT REFLECT THE PRIORITIES AND POLICIES OF THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION.** GRASSLAND TO SHRUBLAND ECOSYSTEM TRANSITIONS WITH INCREASING WOODY PLANT ENCROACHMENT (WPE) ALTER KEY ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN RANGELANDS, NOTABLY PRODUCTION OF HERBACEOUS PLANTS USED FOR LIVESTOCK FORAGE AND SOIL RETENTION. OVER 70% OF GLOBAL RANGELANDS EXIST IN ARID AND SEMI-ARID DRYLANDS, WHICH COMMONLY EXPERIENCE WPE AND ARE VULNERABLE TO DEGRADATION WITH INCREASED TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION VARIABILITY DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE. DESPITE APPLICATION OF VARIOUS METHODS TO REMOVE WOODY PLANTS AND RESTORE ESSENTIAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES, WPE MANAGEMENT FREQUENTLY YIELDS DISAPPOINTING AND VARIABLE RESULTS, RISKING POOR RETURN ON EXPENSIVE RESTORATION TREATMENTS. THIS IS LIKELY TO A CRITICAL THRESHOLD OR TIPPING POINT IN THE TRANSITION FROM THE GRASSLAND TO SHRUBLAND STATE IN WHICH THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ECOSYSTEM CHANGE SO SUBSTANTIALLY THAT REVERSING THE TRANSITION MAY NEVER OCCUR, EVEN WITH ACTIVE INTERVENTION.UNDERSTANDING WHERE THESE THRESHOLDS LIE IN THE CONTINUUM BETWEEN GRASSLAND TO SHRUBLAND ECOSYSTEM STATE CHANGE, AND HOW WPE MANAGEMENT COULD BE APPLIED STRATEGICALLY GIVEN THESE THRESHOLDS, IS CRITICAL TO EFFECTIVELY RESTORING RANGELANDS AFFECTED BY WPE AND THE ECOLOGICAL BENEFITS THEY PROVIDE INTO THE FUTURE. THE OVERARCHING GOAL OF THIS PROJECT IS TO QUANTIFY CROSS-SCALE FACTORS IMPACTING THE PLANT COMMUNITY RESPONSE FOLLOWING WPE MANAGEMENT TO IMPROVE PREDICTABILITY IN DRYLAND RESTORATION OUTCOMES. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPLISHED BY MODELING PLANT COMMUNITY DATA IN RESPONSE TO FACTORS THAT CAN DRIVE ECOSYSTEM CHANGE FROM THE RELATIVELY SMALL SCALE (E.G., INCREASING SOIL EROSION WITH LOSS OF GRASS SPECIES) TO THE LARGE SCALE (E.G., LAND MANAGEMENT, WEATHER) ACROSS A DRYLAND GRASSLAND TO SHRUBLAND GRADIENT IN THE NORTHERN CHIHUAHUAN DESERT. IDENTIFYING THE RELATIVE INFLUENCE OF THESE FACTORS ON THE PLANT COMMUNITY FOLLOWING WPE MANAGEMENT WILL REFINE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF WHERE THRESHOLDS LIE ALONG THE GRASSLAND TO SHRUBLAND TRANSITION, AND AT WHAT POINT(S) ALONG THE TRANSITION LAND OWNERS AND MANAGERS CAN APPLY MANAGEMENT TO RELIABLY MEET RESTORATION GOALS.