** AWARDS ISSUED PRIOR TO JANUARY 20, 2025, WERE FUNDED UNDER PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATIONS AND MAY NOT REFLECT THE PRIORITIES AND POLICIES OF THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION.** RANGELANDS IN WESTERN GREAT PLAINS ARE EXPERIENCING MORE FREQUENT EXTREME DROUGHT, POSING GRAND CHALLENGES TO ECOSYSTEM SERVICES OF THIS AGRICULTURALLY IMPORTANT REGION. MONITORING AND FORECASTING DROUGHT AND PREDICTING ITS IMPACTS ON FORAGE PRODUCTION ARE CRITICAL FOR INFORMING MANAGEMENT DECISIONS ON SUSTAINING ECOSYSTEM SERVICES VIA FLEXIBLE LIVESTOCK STOCKING UNDER RAPIDLY CHANGING CLIMATES. HERE, WE WILL DEVELOP A HIGH-RESOLUTION (30-M), NEAR REAL-TIME MONITORING AND FORECASTING SYSTEM OF AGROECOSYSTEM DROUGHT AND FORAGE PRODUCTION FOR THE WESTERN GREAT PLAINS. USING SOIL MOISTURE AS A MEASURE OF AGROECOSYSTEM DROUGHT AND ABOVEGROUND NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY (ANPP) AS THE INDICATOR OF FORAGE PRODUCTION, OUR WORK IS UNIQUE AND DIFFERS FROM PREVIOUS APPROACHES BY (1) LEVERAGING MULTIPLE STREAMS OF SATELLITE AND GROUND OBSERVATION DATA, (2) EMPLOYING DIFFERENT MACHINE LEARNING METHODS, AND (3) CO-PRODUCING TOOLS WITH THE RANCHING COMMUNITY TO PROVIDE NOVEL INSIGHTS INTO THE UNDERSTANDING OF DROUGHT AND ITS AGROECOSYSTEM IMPACTS. THIS MONITORING AND FORECASTING SYSTEM WILL BE BUILT INTO THE EXISTING WEB TOOL, GRASSCAST, TO PROVIDE WEEKLY UPDATED MAPS OF MONITORING AND FORECASTING OF AGROECOSYSTEM DROUGHT AND FORAGE PRODUCTION. WITH OUR TRANSLATIONAL GOAL IN PROVIDING A HIGHLY USEFUL TOOL FOR MONITORING AND PREDICTING AGROECOSYSTEM DROUGHT AND ITS IMPACTS ON FORAGE PRODUCTION, THIS RESEARCH MEETS THE GOAL OF PRIORITY AREA SUSTAINABLE AGROECOSYSTEMS: HEALTH, FUNCTIONS, PROCESSES AND MANAGEMENT PROGRAM (A1451) TO IMPROVE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN MANAGED NATURAL AND AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS.
$737,332FY2024National Institute of Food and AgricultureUSDA
Colorado State University, Fort Collins CO