** AWARDS ISSUED PRIOR TO JANUARY 20, 2025, WERE FUNDED UNDER PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATIONS AND MAY NOT REFLECT THE PRIORITIES AND POLICIES OF THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION.** AFRICAN SWINE FEVER (ASF) IS A DISEASE ASSOCIATED WITH MASS MORTALITY AND THE MOST IMPACTFUL SWINEDISEASE WORLDWIDE. IMPROVED KNOWLEDGE RELATED TO THE SPREAD OF SUCH PATHOGENS IS CRITICAL FOR ANEFFECTIVE PLAN FOR THE DEPLOYMENT OF CONTROL AND ERADICATION STRATEGIES IN COUNTRIES SUCH AS THE US.IN THE ABSENCE OF EFFECTIVE VACCINES FOR ASF, CONTROL STRATEGIES ARE HEAVILY DEPENDENT ON MASSDEPOPULATION AND MOVEMENT RESTRICTIONS. BEFORE SUCH COMPLEX INFECTIOUS DISEASE THREATS AREINTRODUCED, IT IS VITAL TO EVALUATE THE EFFECTIVENESS AND ECONOMIC IMPACT OF DISEASE CONTROLINTERVENTIONS TO PROTECT THE $20 BILLION PORK INDUSTRY AND AMERICA'S FOOD ECONOMY. WE PROPOSE TOSIMULATE THE DYNAMICS OFASF OUTBREAK AMONG THE SWINE POPULATION OF THREE LARGE SWINE PRODUCINGSTATES IN THE US, CONSIDERING MAJOR MODES OF WITHIN AND BETWEEN-FARM TRANSMISSION.OUR INTEGRATEDOBJECTIVES ARE TO:1) DEVELOP MATHEMATICAL MODELS UTILIZING REAL SWINE POPULATION DYNAMICS DATA AT MULTIPLELEVELS: A) FARM, B) BARN AND C) PEN-LEVELS ACROSS MULTIPLE US STATES.2) INVESTIGATE THE FEASIBILITY OF ASF CONTROL AND ERADICATION STRATEGIES, AT FARM, BARN ANDPEN-LEVEL.3) ENGAGE STAKEHOLDERS WITH PARTICIPATORY MODELING TO ENHANCESTAKEHOLDER UNDERSTANDINGAND MODEL USABILITY.THIS PROJECT WILL MINIMIZE INDUSTRY DISRUPTION DURING DISEASE EMERGENCIES BY TESTING THEEFFECTIVENESS OF CURRENT TACTICS AGAINST ASF. OUR PROPOSAL ADDRESSES PRIORITIES OF THE DATA SCIENCEFOR FOOD AND AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS (DSFAS) CODE (A1541). OUR WORK WILL PROVIDE ACLEAR PICTUREOF THE FEASIBILITY OF RESPONDING TO A LARGER SCALE DISEASE OUTBREAK. THIS PROJECT WILL ADVANCE THENATIONAL ABILITY TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD DISEASE EMERGENCIES.
$591,481FY2024National Institute of Food and AgricultureUSDA
North Carolina State University, Raleigh NC