** AWARDS ISSUED PRIOR TO JANUARY 20, 2025, WERE FUNDED UNDER PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATIONS AND MAY NOT REFLECT THE PRIORITIES AND POLICIES OF THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION.** NUMEROUS STUDIES SHOW THAT THE LAND SECTOR - THROUGH CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND BIOMASS ENERGY WITH CARBON CAPTURE AND STORAGE - PROVIDES A CRITICAL LINK TO A WORLD THAT LIMITS TEMPERATURE CHANGE TO 1.5°C. HOWEVER, RESEARCH ALSO SHOWS THAT INCREASING LEVELS OF DIEBACK AND DISTURBANCE (E.G., FIRES) POSE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK TO FORESTS, WHILE CHANGES IN CROP YIELDS COULD ALTER THE AMOUNT OF LAND USED FOR CROPS, IMPERILING CARBON CURRENTLY STORED IN FORESTS. DESPITE THE SCALE OF POSSIBLE POLICY ACTION, WHICH COULD INCREASE FORESTLAND BY HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS OF HECTARES AND SHIFT THE GLOBAL PATTERN OF FOOD PRODUCTION, THE CURRENT LITERATURE HAS NOT CONSIDERED WHETHER CLIMATE RISKS AFFECT THESUSTAINABILITY OF COORDINATED GLOBAL ACTION TAKEN THROUGH THE PARIS AGREEMENT. ACCOUNTING FOR CLIMATE IMPACTS IN FOREST AND AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS REQUIRES DEVELOPMENT OF NEW INTEGRATED MODELING SYSTEMS CAPABLE OF CAPTURING (1) INTERTEMPORAL ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE (E.G., THE RESPONSE OF MARKETS TO STOCK EFFECTS LIKE DIEBACK); (2) REGIONAL DIFFERENCES THAT AFFECT THE FLOW OF COMMODITIES;AND (3) LAND MARKET INTERACTIONS. THIS RESEARCH INNOVATES BY DEVELOPING A NOVEL DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION MODEL OF THE GLOBAL FOREST AND AGRICULTURAL SECTORS WITH 16 POLITICAL REGIONS, AND UP TO 16 BIOMES (DISTINCT ECOREGIONS) IN EACH REGION. WE INTEGRATE NEW CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ESTIMATES IN FORESTRY AND AGRICULTURE, AND CALIBRATE OUR MODEL WITH NATIONAL FOREST INVENTORY DATA TO AVOID PROBLEMS IDENTIFIED IN CURRENT INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT MODELS. BY SYSTEMATICALLY ASSESSING ALTERNATIVE POLICY APPROACHES, WE BETTER UNDERSTAND HOW CLIMATE CHANGE INFLUENCES THE FUTURE PROVISION OF LARGE-SCALE LAND-BASED CARBON DIOXIDE REMOVAL FROM THE ATMOSPHERE.

Ohio State University, The, Columbus OH

Investigators