WARMER AND DRIER CLIMATE CONDITIONS HAVE LED TO AN UNPRECEDENTED INCREASE IN EXTREME WILDFIRES AND DROUGHTS IN WESTERN FORESTS, RESULTING IN GREATER AREAS EXPERIENCING DROUGHT-RELATED TREE MORTALITY AND SUBSEQUENT WILDFIRE. THESE NOVEL OVERLAPPING DISTURBANCES PRESENT A KEY MANAGEMENT CHALLENGE ACROSS THE AMERICAN WEST. GIVEN LIMITED RESOURCES FOR RESTORING FORESTS, IT IS CRITICAL TO IDENTIFY DRIVERS OF FOREST RESILIENCE TO PRIORITIZE AREAS FOR MANAGEMENT AND SUPPORT MANAGEMENT DECISIONS ABOUT WHEN TO RESIST, ACCEPT, OR DIRECT CHANGE. THE PROPOSED PROJECT HAS TWO MAIN OBJECTIVES: (1) INVESTIGATE HOW COMPOUNDING DISTURBANCES (FIRE FOLLOWING EXTREME DROUGHT) INFLUENCE FOREST COMPOSITION AND RECOVERY TRAJECTORIES, AND (2) IDENTIFY THE EXTENT TO WHICH PRE-DISTURBANCE MANAGEMENT, FOREST STRUCTURE, AND ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS CONTRIBUTE TO FOREST RESILIENCE UNDER COMPOUNDING DISTURBANCES. I WILL LEVERAGE A UNIQUE NETWORK OF ESTABLISHED PLOTS THAT EXPERIENCED BOTH EXTREME DROUGHT AND WILDFIRE WITH VARIABLE PRE-DISTURBANCE TREATMENT HISTORY AND COMPARE OBSERVATIONS BEFORE AND AFTER FIRE TO MODEL DRIVERS OF FOREST RECOVERY AND UNDERSTORY COMPOSITION. USING THESE FINDINGS, I WILL DEVELOP STATE-AND-TRANSITION MODELS TO PREDICT RECOVERY TRAJECTORIES UNDER DIFFERENT DISTURBANCE SEVERITY AND PRE-DISTURBANCE TREATMENT SCENARIOS.
$0FY2023National Institute of Food and AgricultureUSDA
University Of California, Davis