**AWARDS ISSUED PRIOR TO JANUARY 20, 2025, WERE FUNDED UNDER PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATIONS AND MAY NOT REFLECT THE PRIORITIES AND POLICIES OF THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION.** FORESTS IN THE SEMIARID WESTERN US PROVIDE KEY ECOSYSTEM SERVICES FOR THE REGION AND ARE CRITICAL FOR LOCAL ECONOMIES AND POPULATIONS. HOWEVER, RISKS TO FORESTS ARE ACCELERATING IN THE US AND GLOBALLY. RESOURCE MANAGERS ARE SEEING A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN REFORESTATION NEEDS IN RECENT DECADES DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF MORE BURNED AREA, THE ACCELERATED PACE OF TIMBER HARVEST, AND THE US ENGAGEMENT IN THE TRILLION TREE INITIATIVE. THIS IS PRESENTING A CHALLENGE FOR THE USFS, WHICH HAS A LEGAL MANDATE TO MAINTAIN THE EXTENT OF NATIONAL FOREST LAND AND TO MONITOR FOREST RECOVERY FOLLOWING DISTURBANCE OR HARVEST. THIS PROJECT PRESENTS A COMPREHENSIVE METHODOLOGY THAT WILL ALLOW THE USFS AND OTHER AGENCIES TO PRIORITIZE PLANTING EFFORTS TOWARDS AREAS WHERE TREE PLANTING IS NEEDED FOR FOREST RECOVERY WHILE MINIMIZING EXPENDITURES TOWARDS AREAS THAT WILL NO LONGER SUPPORT TREES OR AREAS THAT WILL LIKELY REGENERATE NATURALLY. OUR APPROACH IS BASED ON AN ENSEMBLE OF EXISTING MODELS THAT WILL DETERMINE THE PROBABILITY OF SEED AVAILABILITY, THE PROBABILITY OF SUITABLE HYDROCLIMATIC CONDITIONS FOR SEEDLING ESTABLISHMENT, AND THE INTERSECTION OF SEED AVAILABILITY AND SUITABLE HYDROCLIMATE WHICH DEFINES AREAS WHERE NATURAL REGENERATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR. THIS INFORMATION IS USED WITHIN A RISK-BENEFIT FRAMEWORK TO INFORM RESOURCE ALLOCATION AND TO RECOMMEND MANAGEMENT GOALS BETTER ALIGNED WITH THE NEW REALITIES OF WESTERN FORESTS.