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WHEN USING MODELS TO FORECAST HOW FORESTS WILL RESPOND TO CHANGING CLIMATE AND WILDFIRE, WE USE DATA FROM THE RECENT PAST TO DEVELOP THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE AND AREA BURNED. THESE DATA TYPICALLY COVER A PERIOD OF 30-40 YEARS, WHICH IS A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD FOR CAPTURING VARIABILITY IN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE AND FIRE. TREE RINGS AND FIRE SCARS FROM TREES HELP TO EXTEND THE PERIOD OVER WHICH WE HAVE CLIMATE AND AREA BURNED DATA BY HUNDREDS OF YEARS IN FOREST TYPES THAT HISTORICALLY BURNED IN SURFACE FIRE REGIMES (FIRES WHERE MOST TREES SURVIVE). PALEO-FIRE DATA, RECONSTRUCTIONS OF FIRE HISTORY FROM CHARCOAL TRAPPED IN LAKE SEDIMENTS, CAN HELP EXTEND THIS RECORD BACK THOUSANDS OF YEARS. I EXPECT THAT USING A RECORD OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN CLIMATE AND FIRE THAT EXTENDS HUNDREDS TO THOUSANDS OF YEARS WILL BETTER HELP US PROJECT HOW FIRE WILL RESPOND TO FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE. IF THIS LONGER RECORD CHANGES HOW MODELS SIMULATE FIRES, THAT INFORMATION WILL BE USEFUL TO INFORM CURRENT DAY MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES THAT ARE AIMED AT DECREASING THE CHANCE OF FAST-MOVING, HOT FIRES THAT KILL TREES AND THREATEN COMMUNITIES.

$103,133FY2022National Institute of Food and AgricultureUSDA

University Of New Mexico, Albuquerque NM

Investigators

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