**AWARDS ISSUED PRIOR TO JANUARY 20, 2025, WERE FUNDED UNDER PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATIONS AND MAY NOT REFLECT THE PRIORITIES AND POLICIES OF THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION.** CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGE ARE MAJOR THREATS TO BIODIVERSITY PERSISTENCE. IN RESPONSE TO THESE AND OTHER CONCERNS, THE NATIONAL CLIMATE TASK FORCE RECENTLY LAID OUT A CONSERVATION STRATEGY FOR ACHIEVING A GOAL OF PROTECTING 30% OF U.S. LANDS AND WATERS BY 2030. A KEY CHALLENGE IS HOW TO DEAL WITH UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH CLIMATE AND LAND USE CHANGE THAT MAKE INVESTMENTS IN CONSERVATION RISKY. MODERN PORTFOLIO THEORY (MPT) HAS BEEN APPLIED TO IDENTIFY PORTFOLIOS OF PROTECTED SITES, ECOSYSTEMS, OR SPECIES THAT BALANCE RISK AND RETURN OF CONSERVATION BENEFITS IN THE FUTURE. HOWEVER, APPLICATIONS HAVE BEEN LIMITED BECAUSE MPT IMPLICITLY ASSUMES CONSERVATION AGENCIES ARE UNWILLING OR UNABLE TO PLAN CONSERVATION INVESTMENTS OVER TIME. IN REALITY, SITUATIONS WHERE CONSERVATION AGENCIES ENGAGE IN EFFORTS TO CONSERVE PORTFOLIOS OF SPECIES AND/OR SITES THROUGH A ONE-SHOT DEAL ARE EXTREMELY RARE. THIS PROJECT WILL ADDRESS THE LIMITATIONS OF THE STATIC MPT APPROACH IN CONSERVATION PLANNING BY DEVELOPING A DYNAMIC COUNTERPART THAT WILL DETERMINE A TIME SERIES OF PORTFOLIOS OF TARGET SITES FOR BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION. THE CONSERVATION STRATEGY IDENTIFIED BY OUR MODEL WILL HEDGE RISK OVER GEOGRAPHIC LOCATIONS AND OVER TIME BY DEVELOPING THREE DYNAMIC MPT APPROACHES. EACH DYNAMIC COUNTERPART REPRESENTS A DIFFERENT REAL-WORLD SITUATIONS ABOUT THE FISCAL AND CONTRACTUAL FLEXIBILITY FACED BY DIFFERENT CONSERVATION AGENCIES (E.G., USDA'S CONSERVATION RESERVE PROGRAM, AGRICULTURAL CONSERVATION EASEMENT PROGRAM, AND FOREST LEGACY PROGRAM).
$650,000FY2022National Institute of Food and AgricultureUSDA
University Of Tennessee, Memphis TN