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**AWARDS ISSUED PRIOR TO JANUARY 20, 2025, WERE FUNDED UNDER PREVIOUS ADMINISTRATIONS AND MAY NOT REFLECT THE PRIORITIES AND POLICIES OF THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION.** THERE HAS BEEN AN UNPRECEDENTED INCREASE IN THE FREQUENCY AND SEVERITY OF WILDFIRES, WITH 2020 MARKED AS THE MOST ACTIVE WILDFIRE YEAR ACROSS THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. FOLLOWING WILDFIRES, CASCADING HAZARDS SUCH AS DEBRIS FLOW AND FLOODING MAY OCCUR, RESULTING IN POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC SEQUENCES. THE ESCALATING RISK OF CASCADING HAZARDS REQUIRES DECISION-MAKERS, ENGINEERS, SOCIAL SCIENTISTS, AND OTHER STAKEHOLDERS TO WORK TOGETHER TO ENABLE RURAL COMMUNITIES TO BETTER CONFRONT CASCADING HAZARDS. THE OVERARCHING GOAL OF THIS MULTIDISCIPLINARY PROJECT IS TO REDUCE THE VULNERABILITY OF RURAL COMMUNITIES TO THE IMPACTS OF WILDFIRE-RELATED CASCADING HAZARDS UNDER CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. THE PROJECT HAS BEEN PROPOSED IN CLOSE COLLABORATION WITH EMERGENCY PLANNING AUTHORITIES AND WILL BE CONDUCTED IN LAKE COUNTY, CALIFORNIA, A RURAL COUNTY THAT POSSESSES KEY CHARACTERISTICS OF A COMMUNITY AT RISK FOR CASCADING HAZARDS. EMPLOYING A SUITE OF ENGINEERING AND SOCIAL SCIENCE METHODS, THE PROJECT OBJECTIVES ARE TO: (1) ADVANCE CURRENT MODELING CAPABILITIES FOR UNDERSTANDING THE COMPLEX SPATIOTEMPORAL FACTORS DEFINING THE EVOLUTION OF CASCADING HAZARDS (DROUGHT, WILDFIRES, DEBRIS FLOW, AND FLOODING) AND THEIR IMPACTS UNDER CHANGING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, (2) IDENTIFY INFORMATION SHORTFALLS AND BEHAVIORAL RESPONSES OF EMERGENCY MANAGERS, PLANNERS, AND VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES AS THEY PREPARE FOR AND RESPOND TO CASCADING HAZARDS, AND (3) DEVELOP INTERACTIVE, SCENARIO-BASED, MULTILINGUAL TOOLS THAT WILL ENABLE EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND PLANNERS TO MAKE AND COMMUNICATE TIMELY DECISIONS ABOUT CASCADING HAZARDS.THE PROPOSED PROJECT OUTLINES A MULTIDISCIPLINARY APPROACH FOR MITIGATING THE IMPACTS OF CASCADING HAZARDS BY INTEGRATING SCIENCE, COMMUNITY, AND EMERGENCY PLANNING PERSPECTIVES. WE ADVANCE THE STATE-OF-THE-ART ON HOW CASCADING HAZARDS MAY DRIVE ONE ANOTHER, AND ALSO HOW THESE HAZARDS IMPACT COMMUNITIES AND MAY BE MITIGATED IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE. THERE HAS BEEN LIMITED RESEARCH TO FORECAST SPATIOTEMPORAL IMPACTS OF CASCADING HAZARDS ON COMMUNITIES. THE PROPOSED EFFORTS WILL BRING TOGETHER WHAT HAS OFTEN BEEN AN ISOLATED AND RETROSPECTIVE ACTIVITY, AND MAKE IT INTEGRATIVE AND PROSPECTIVE. WE FURTHER WILL ADVANCE RISK MANAGEMENT AND CRISIS COMMUNICATION BY SHOWING HOW DIVERSE SOURCES OF DATA (PROCESSES, COMMUNITY AWARENESS, AND EMERGENCY PLANNING TECHNIQUES) CAN BE INTEGRATED TO IMPROVE DECISION-MAKING AND COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT. WE WILL PROVIDE INSIGHTS INTO HOW PHYSICAL, SOCIAL AND INFRASTRUCTURAL VULNERABILITIES IN RURAL COMMUNITIES MAY BE EXACERBATED BY CASCADING EVENTS. THROUGH AN INTEGRATED PLATFORM, WE WILL INTERTWINE BOTH ENGINEERING AND SOCIAL SCIENCE DIMENSIONS IN A NOVEL SPATIOTEMPORAL FRAMEWORK. THE MODELING OF CASCADING HAZARDS AND THEIR IMPACTS WILL BE UNIQUE AS THEY WILL ACCOUNT FOR BOTH CURRENT AND FUTURE SCENARIOS. WHILE APPLIED TO THE SEQUENCE OF DROUGHT, WILDFIRES, DEBRIS FLOW, AND FLOODING, THIS FRAMEWORK IS DIRECTLY TRANSLATABLE,TO ANY SET OF CASCADING HAZARDS, AND THE PROPOSED PLATFORM MAY BE EXPANDED TO BETTER UNDERSTAND OTHER HAZARD SEQUENCES (E.G., EARTHQUAKES, TSUNAMIS). THE PROPOSED EFFORTS WILL ALSO PROVIDE A UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO ENHANCE THE SCIENCE OF RISK AND MULTILINGUAL CRISIS COMMUNICATION IN VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES BY EXPLORING THE EVOLVING ROLE OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE.THE PROPOSED EFFORTS BRIDGE THE GAP BETWEEN ENGINEERING, SCIENTIFIC AND SOCIAL SCIENCE DIMENSIONS THAT HAVE BEEN STRIVING TO REDUCE THE CONSEQUENCES OF CASCADING HAZARDS, OFTEN IN ISOLATION OF ONE ANOTHER. BY INTEGRATING SPATIOTEMPORAL MODELING OF HAZARDS, COMMUNITY VULNERABILITY, CRISIS COMMUNICATION, AND COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT, WE HAVE A UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO BETTER EQUIP EMERGENCY PLANNERS WITH THE KNOWLEDGE AND SCIENCE-BASED TOOLS NEEDED TO MAKE INFORMED DECISIONS AND REDUCE CONSEQUENCES OF CASCADING HAZARDS ON RURAL COMMUNITIES. THE ABILITY TO TRANSLATE REAL-TIME MODEL OUTPUTS AND CREATE A STRATEGIC CRISIS COMMUNICATION PLAN WILL ENSURE THAT THE COMMUNITY IS BOTH SMART AND CONNECTED - AN APPROACH THAT IS TRANSLATABLE TO VULNERABLE COMMUNITIES IN THE UNITED STATES AND BEYOND. THIS PROJECT WILL PROVIDE EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES IN MULTI-DISCIPLINARY, COLLABORATIVE RESEARCH FOR PHD STUDENTS, RESEARCH AND LEADERSHIP OPPORTUNITIES FOR EARLY CAREER SCIENTISTS, AND PLACE-BASED CURRICULUM FOR SCIENCE AND SOCIAL STUDIES CLASSROOMS IN LAKE COUNTY HIGH SCHOOLS, AND THE BROADER CALIFORNIA SCIENCE EDUCATION COMMUNITY.

$1,700,000FY2021National Institute of Food and AgricultureUSDA

Mississippi State University, Mississippi State MS

Investigators

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