THIS PROJECT WILL ADVANCE RESEARCH AND KNOWLEDGE ON THE RESILIENCE OF U.S. AGRICULTURAL CREDIT MARKETS. ACCESS TO DEBT FINANCING IS CRITICAL FOR BOTH FARM SECTOR COMPETITIVENESS AND SURVIVAL DURING DOWNTURNS. THE U.S. FARM SECTOR HAS EXPERIENCED AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW COMMODITY PRICES, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL VOLATILITY AND UNCERTAINTY STEMMING FROM THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC. EXPECTED LONG-TERM INCREASES IN WEATHER VOLATILITY AND DISASTERS MAY FURTHER CHALLENGE FINANCIAL MARKETS.FARM POLICY AND NONFARM POLICIES (E.G. MONETARY POLICY) HAVE A PROFOUND INFLUENCE ON FINANCIAL MARKETS. GOVERNMENT PROGRAMS THAT PROVIDE PAYOUTS DURING LOW REVENUE PERIODS SUPPORT BOTH CREDIT ACCESS AND LAND MARKETS. THESE CHALLENGES ARE OCCURRING IN AN AGRICULTURAL CREDIT ENVIRONMENT THAT HAS EVOLVED SUBSTANTIALLY SINCE THE 1980S FARM CRISIS. WHILE COMMERCIAL BANKS AND THE FARM CREDIT SYSTEM HAVE UNDERGONE SUBSTANTIAL CONSOLIDATION, NEW ENTRANTS AND INNOVATION HAVE ENSURED THAT FARMS BUSINESSES CAN CHOOSE FROM A WIDE VARIETY OF FINANCIAL SERVICE PROVIDERS AND PRODUCTS. THIS EVOLUTION OF CREDIT MARKETS CREATES BOTH OPPORTUNITIES AND RISKS THAT ARE NOT YET WELL UNDERSTOOD. THE COMBINED EXPERTISE OF THE PROJECT TEAM MEMBERS IN FINANCE, FARM POLICY, CLIMATE IMPACTS ON AGRICULTURE, AND EMPIRICAL METHODS WILL PROVIDE FORWARD-LOOKING INSIGHTS ON AGRICULTURAL CREDIT MARKETS AND LAY GROUNDWORK FOR EMERGING RESEARCH IN THIS AREA. WE WILL CONDUCT NOVEL EMPIRICAL RESEARCH ANALYZING (1) THE EFFECTS OF WEATHER SHOCKS ON BANK PERFORMANCE AND CREDIT SUPPLY, (2) THE IMPACTS OF CHANGING CREDIT MARKETS ON AGRICULTURE VIA QUANTITATIVE EASING AND BANK CONSOLIDATION; AND (3) THE INFLUENCE OF COUNTERCYCLICAL FARM PROGRAMS ON AGRICULTURAL LAND VALUES.