URBAN LAND DEVELOPMENT AFFECTS THE WEALTH OF FARM- AND FORESTRY-DEPENDENT RURAL COMMUNITIES THROUGH LAND MARKETS, WHICH CAPITALIZE THE FUTURE CONVERSION PRESSURE STEMMING FROM ANTICIPATED URBAN EXPANSION. THE PROPOSED ANALYSIS WILL FEATURE A NATIONWIDE STUDY OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN URBANIZATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND THE MARKETS FOR FARMLAND AND TIMBERLAND. GIVEN THE LARGE ROLE OF LAND MARKETS IN DETERMINING THE ECONOMIC WELL-BEING OF THE FARM AND FORESTRY SECTORS, OUR PROJECT WILL DEVELOP AN INNOVATIVE APPROACH TO STUDY THE DRIVERS OF RURAL LAND MARKETS AND CONNECTIONS WITH AGRICULTURAL AND TIMBER PRODUCTION AND LAND RESOURCE USE. OUR STUDY WILL FEATURE AN ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF LAND PRICES, IN WHICH WE WILL ACCOUNT FOR COMPONENTS RELATED TO CAPITALIZED FUTURE DEVELOPMENT AND CURRENT-USE RETURNS USING COMPREHENSIVE AGRICULTURAL AND FOREST LAND TRANSACTION PRICE DATA. FUTURE DEVELOPMENT RETURNS WILL BE MODELED IN A WAY THAT ALLOWS US TO RECONCILE LOCAL URBAN EXPANSION PATTERNS WITHTHE FUTURE DEVELOPMENT TIME IMPLIED BY LAND MARKET CAPITALIZATION. WE WILL ALSO ASSESS THE DRIVERS OF THE REMARKABLE DOWNTURN IN THE RATE OF URBAN LAND GROWTH OVER THE PAST TWO DECADES. CURRENT-USE RETURNS WILL BE MODELED AS A FUNCTION OF CLIMATE AND OTHER OBSERVABLE DRIVERS. USING THE ECONOMETRIC MODELS, WE WILL PROJECT PRIVATELY OPTIMAL LAND DEVELOPMENT TIMES UNDER ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS REGARDING POPULATION GROWTH, CLIMATE CHANGE, AND OTHER LAND MARKET DRIVERS. OUR RESEARCH WILL INFORM DISCUSSIONS CONCERNING RURAL LAND MARKET STRUCTURE AND PERFORMANCE, LAND-USE CHANGE AT THE RURAL-URBAN FRINGE, AND THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON AGRICULTURAL AND TIMBER PRODUCTION VALUE.

Montana State University, Bozeman MT

Investigators