INSECT OUTBREAKS AND LAND MANAGEMENT ACTIVITIES TO REDUCE DAMAGE CAN EXERT CONSIDERABLE INFLUENCE ON LONG-TERM FOREST PRODUCTIVITY AND REGIONAL PROVISION OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES. EASTERN SPRUCE BUDWORM IS A NATIVE DEFOLIATOR THAT PERIODICALLY (EVERY 30-50 YEARS) CAUSES WIDESPREAD DEFOLIATION AND MORTALITY OF BALSAM FIR AND SPRUCE TREES IN NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND EASTERN CANADA. IN MAINE, THE LAST OUTBREAK KILLED 20 TO 25 MILLION CORDS OF WOOD BETWEEN 1972 AND 1988, COSTING LANDOWNERS MILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN REVENUE AND ONGOING SUPPLY ISSUES. POPULATION INDICATORS SUGGEST THE EMERGING OUTBREAK WILL SOON SPREAD FROM CANADA TO NORTHERN MAINE, WHERE >20% OF THE FOREST IS ESTIMATED TO BE AT RISK. OUR GOAL IS TO PROVIDE THE SCIENCE-BASED INFORMATION FOREST MANAGERS NEED TO REDUCE BUDWORM DAMAGE WITHOUT COMPROMISING IMPORTANT ECOSYSTEM SERVICES, THROUGH INNOVATIVE USE OF MACHINE LEARNING AND FOREST LANDSCAPE MODELING. WE WILL IMPROVE PREDICTION OF LOCAL AND REGIONAL OUTBREAK EFFECTS BY INCORPORATING NEW EMPIRICAL ESTIMATIONS AND SPATIAL REPRESENTATIONS OF RISK AND FOREST PRODUCTIVITY, FROM REMOTE SENSING AND FIELD MEASUREMENTS, INTO THE WIDELY-USED FOREST LANDSCAPE MODEL LANDIS-II. PROJECTIONS WILL EVALUATE INTERACTIONS BETWEEN OUTBREAK INTENSITY AND CHANGES IN LAND USE FROM TIMBER PRODUCTION TO RISK MITIGATION. OUR PROPOSED RESEARCH IS DIRECTLY RESPONSIVE TO BNRE GOALS IN OUR INTENT TO PROVIDE ACTIONABLE KNOWLEDGE AND DECISION SUPPORT TO FORESTLAND OWNERS AND MANAGERS ABOUT THE LONG-TERM CONSEQUENCES TO FOREST HEALTH, RESILIENCE, AND PRODUCTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT MITIGATION STRATEGIES TO LIMIT INSECT DAMAGE IN A FOREST ECOSYSTEM THAT HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED AS VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECTS.

University Of Maine System

Investigators