THE PUBLIC HEALTH CRISIS CREATED BY THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC HAS LED TO THE SHUTDOWN OF MANY RESTAURANTS DEEMED NONESSENTIAL, WITH AN ESTIMATED 15% OF U.S. RESTAURANTS CLOSED PERMANENTLY OR LIKELY TO AFTER JUST THE FIRST 3 WEEKS OF SHUTDOWNS (NATIONAL RESTAURANT ASSOCIATION, 2020). THE MAGNITUDE OF BUSINESS CLOSURES AND EMPLOYEE LAYOFFS HAS RESULTED IN AN UNPARALLELED SHOCK TO THE U.S. ECONOMY. THE COMBINED EFFECT OF BUSINESS CLOSURES AND REDUCED DISCRETIONARY SPENDING OF CONSUMERS ARE HAVING STRONG NEGATIVE ECONOMIC EFFECTS, THE LENGTH OF WHICH IS UNKNOWN. ECONOMIC RELIEF AND STIMULUS PACKAGES ARE EXPECTED TO AMELIORATE SOME DEGREE OF NEGATIVE EFFECTS, BUT THE LENGTH OF TIME FOR CONSUMER DEMAND TO FULLY REBOUND IS ALSO UNKNOWN. KEY QUESTIONS FOR U.S. AQUACULTURE PRODUCERS WILL BE THE EXTENT OF CHANGES IN CONSUMER DEMAND, HOW LONG THOSE CHANGES WILL LAST, AND WHAT MARKETING STRATEGIES WILL BE MOST EFFECTIVE TO RESTORE SALES. THIS PROJECT WILL MAKE A SINGULAR SCIENTIFIC CONTRIBUTION BY ANALYZING THE EVOLUTION OF CHANGES IN SEAFOOD CONSUMER BEHAVIOR THROUGHOUT THE ECONOMIC RECOVERY FROM THE PANDEMIC. EXTERNAL ECONOMIC SHOCKS AND ECONOMIC DOWNTURNS HAVE OCCURRED PREVIOUSLY, OF COURSE, BUT EFFECTS ON CONSUMER BEHAVIORS HAVE NOT BEEN WELL STUDIED; WE FOUND NO STUDIES ON SEAFOOD CONSUMER BEHAVIORS DURING SUCH TIMES. CONSUMER BEHAVIOR CHANGES DURING TIMES OF ECONOMIC RECESSION (LATHAM AND BRAUN 2010), BUT THE TYPES OF CHANGE VARY WITH GEOGRAPHIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC DIFFERENCES, BY PRODUCT, AND THE NATURE OF THE CRISIS. FOOD PURCHASES DURING ECONOMIC CRISES, FOR EXAMPLE, WERE LESS AFFECTED THAN PURCHASES OF NONESSENTIAL GOODS (ANG ET AL. 2000). THE RATE OF CHANGE IN CONSUMER SPENDING ALSO DIFFERS WITH CONSUMERS REDUCING SPENDING QUICKLY IN SOME CASES (DELEERSNYDER ET AL. 2004), BUT MORE SLOWLY IN OTHERS (ZURAWICKI AND BRAIDOT 2005). VALAŠKOVA AND KLIEŠTIK (2015) SUGGESTED THAT SPENDING BEHAVIOR IS RELATED TO LENGTH OF THE CRISIS AND DEGREE OF CHANGE IN DISPOSABLE INCOME. FEWER STUDIES HAVE FOLLOWED CONSUMER SPENDING THROUGHOUT THE CRISIS AND RECOVERY; DELEERSNYDER ET AL. (2004) REPORTED THAT THE RETURN TO PREVIOUS SPENDING PATTERNS OCCURRED MORE SLOWLY THAN THE ABRUPT INITIAL REDUCTIONS.CONSUMER ATTITUDES AND PREFERENCES ALSO CHANGE DURING ECONOMIC CRISES. CONSUMERS WERE FOUND TO EMPHASIZE VALUE CONSCIOUSNESS MORE IN TIMES OF CRISIS WITH INCREASED PREFERENCE FOR SALES AND PRICE DISCOUNTS BELOW PREMIUM, AND WHOLESALE MARKETS (SHAMA 1978; VALAŠKOVA AND KLIEŠTIK 2015;). DURING ECONOMIC CRISES, CONSUMERS TENDED TO BECOME MORE THOUGHTFUL, THRIFTY, AND ECONOMICAL, SPENDING MORE TIME PLANNING, MAKING LISTS, COMPARING PRICES, AND AVOIDING IMPULSE PURCHASES (VOINEA AND FILIP 2011; HAMPSON AND MCGOLDRICK 2013; VALAŠKOVA AND KLIEŠTIK 2015). PREFERENCES MOVED TOWARDS SIMPLE, UNCOMPLICATED, BUT SAFE PRODUCTS, WITH LESS SPENDING ON "ETHICAL" PRODUCTS (I.E., ORGANIC, FAIR TRADE) (HAMPSON AND MCGOLDRICK 2013). CONSUMERS PREFERRED SMALLER PACKAGES AND MORE INFORMATIVE ADVERTISEMENTS DURING ECONOMIC CRISES (ANG ET AL. 2000).HOWEVER, NOT ALL CONSUMERS CHANGE BEHAVIORS DURING ECONOMIC CRISES (SHAMA 1978; SHIPCHANDLER 1982; ANG ET AL. 2000; LAMEY ET AL. 2007). ONLY 50% OF NEW YORK CITY SHOPPERS CHANGED HABITS DURING THE 1970 OIL CRISIS (SHAMA 1978). IN THE 1970S RECESSION, 24% OF CONSUMERS INCREASED CONSUMPTION OF FROZEN/PREPARED FOODS, BUT 17% INCREASED EXPENDITURES IN EXPENSIVE RESTAURANTS (SHIPCHANDLER 1982). THUS, IT IS IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND REACTIONS OF DIFFERENT CONSUMER SEGMENTS TO ECONOMIC CRISES, AND MARKETING STRATEGIES MUST BE ADAPTED TO CHANGING CONSUMER ATTITUDES, PREFERENCES, AND BEHAVIORS DURING SUCH TIMES. TIMELY AND ACCURATE MARKET INFORMATION IS ESSENTIAL DURING TIMES OF ECONOMIC CHANGE.IN THE U.S., CONSUMER PREFERENCE STUDIES HAVE FOCUSED ON ATTITUDES AND PREFERENCES FOR SPECIES AND PRODUCT FORM BY REGION, IRRESPECTIVE OF ECONOMIC CONDITIONS. AN EARLY NATIONAL MARKETING STUDY ON CATFISH, THE LARGEST SECTOR OF U.S. AQUACULTURE, SURVEYED RESTAURANTS, SUPERMARKETS, AND CONSUMERS, FROM WHICH KEY GEOGRAPHIC MARKETS AND CONSUMER PROFILES WERE IDENTIFIED (ENGLE ET AL. 1990). HANSON ET AL. (1994) IDENTIFIED CATFISH CONSUMER PROFILES BY DIFFERENTIATING CLUSTERS BY PRICING PREFERENCES AND EASE OF PREPARATION. NAUMAN ET AL. (1995) IDENTIFIED "FARM-RAISED" AND "HEALTHINESS" AS POSITIVE INFLUENCERS OF CONSUMER DECISIONS TO PURCHASE FRESH HYBRID STRIPED BASS, TROUT, AND SALMON. CONSUMER SEGMENTS WERE IDENTIFIED FOR WHOLE VERSUS VALUE-ADDED TROUT (FOLTZ ET AL. 1999) AND FRESH VERSUS FROZEN TROUT (DASGUPTA ET AL. 2000). KEY INFLUENCERS OF U.S. CATFISH CONSUMPTION WERE AVAILABILITY AND FRESHNESS (KUMAR ET AL. 2008). CONSUMER PREFERENCES WERE LATER FOUND TO VARY BY CITY (SINGH ET AL. 2014), EVEN THOSE LOCATED IN CLOSE PROXIMITY. OTHER STUDIES FOCUSED ON CONSUMER PREFERENCES FOR FROZEN SEAFOOD PURCHASED IN SUPERMARKETS (DEY ET AL. 2014, 2017; SURATHKAL ET AL. 2017). PREFERENCES FOR OYSTERS VARIED BETWEEN FIRST-TIME AND REGULAR OYSTER CONSUMERS, WITH EXPERIENCED CONSUMERS PREFERRING FARM-RAISED OYSTERS (KECINSKI ET AL. 2017). HIGHER-INCOME CONSUMERS WHO VALUED SIZE AND SPECIFIC HARVEST LOCATIONS WERE FOUND TO BE LIKELIER TO PAY MORE THAN OLDER CONSUMERS (LI ET AL. 2017). FOR U.S. AQUACULTURE PRODUCERS DURING THE CURRENT PUBLIC HEALTH AND ECONOMIC CRISIS, THE GROWING INTEREST IN LOCAL FOODS (DARBY ET AL. 2008) MAY OFFER OPPORTUNITIES. SEVERAL STUDIES HAVE SHOWN PREFERENCES FOR LOCALLY RAISED OYSTERS (PETROLIA ET AL. 2014; CHEN 2017; AND BRAYDEN ET AL. 2018). INCREASED ACCESSIBILITY OF ONLINE INFORMATION AND SALES MAY PROVIDE NEW MARKET OPPORTUNITIES PARTICULARLY DURING THE CURRENT CRISIS (A.C. NIELSEN 2020). NOT ALL DIGITAL MARKETING STRATEGIES, HOWEVER, ARE EQUALLY EFFECTIVE, EVEN TO DEMOGRAPHIC GROUPS THAT RELY HEAVILY ON ONLINE SALES. FOR EXAMPLE, SMITH (2012) FOUND THAT SUCCESSFUL ONLINE STRATEGIES INVOLVED COMPETITIVE PRICING, DISCOUNT COUPONS, AND GOOD SHIPPING RATES. EMAILUPDATES, REWARDS, AND GIFTS WERE POSITIVE INCENTIVES, WHEREAS POP-UP ADS WERE STRONGLY DISLIKED. MILLENNIALS RESPONDED POSITIVELY TO A PERSONAL TOUCH AND WELL-DESIGNED GRAPHICS ON WEB SITES. YOUTUBE VIDEO ADVERTISING WAS STILL EFFECTIVE, BUT DECREASINGLY SO. ONLINE REVIEW OPTIONS WERE POPULAR AND OFFER OPPORTUNITIES FOR EXTENDED PROMOTION THROUGH WORD-OF-MOUTH ADVERTISING THAT HAS BECOME MORE IMPORTANT GIVEN SOCIAL MEDIA ENGAGEMENT (ALLSOP ET AL. 2007; KELLER 2007; AND EMARKETER 2010).THE RESEARCH LITERATURE ON CONSUMER BEHAVIORS DURING ECONOMIC CRISES AND THE LACK OF STUDIES ON SEAFOOD CONSUMERS UNDERSCORE THE NEED TO MEASURE ON-GOING CHANGES IN ATTITUDES, PREFERENCES, AND BEHAVIORS OF U.S. CONSUMERS DURING THE OUTBREAK AND THE RECOVERY PERIOD. NOT ALL CONSUMERS REACT IN THE SAME WAY, AND REACTIONS ARE AFFECTED BY VARIOUS FACTORS. THE CURRENT SITUATION IS UNIQUE IN THE COMBINATION OF A MAJOR EXTERNAL SHOCK, ECONOMIC SHUTDOWN, SOCIAL DISTANCING, AND EXTRAORDINARY ECONOMIC RELIEF AND STIMULUS PACKAGES. NO ONE KNOWS WHEN THE COVID-19 OUTBREAKS WILL BE CONTAINED SUFFICIENTLY FOR ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES TO RESUME, NOR HOW EFFECTIVE THE STIMULUS PACKAGES WILL BE. THUS, U.S. AQUACULTURE BUSINESSES MUST PREPARE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MARKET UNCERTAINTY. THE KEY TO NAVIGATE SUCH UNCERTAINTY IS THROUGH ACCESS TO ACCURATE CONSUMER MARKET INFORMATION THAT PROVIDES INSIGHTS INTO THOSE CONSUMER SEGMENTS AND MARKETS LIKELIEST TO SEEK THEIR PRODUCTS AND UNDER WHAT CONDITIONS (I.E., DELIVERY METHODS, PRICES, PRODUCT FORM, VOLUMES) FOR BOTH PREPARED MEALS AWAY-FROM-HOME AND AT-HOME AS WELL AS GROCERIES FOR AT-HOME PREPARATION.
$307,041FY2020National Institute of Food and AgricultureUSDA
Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University