A TRANSFORMATION OF THE FOOD-ENERGY-WATER (FEW) SYSTEM IS EMERGING THROUGH POLICIES AND MARKETS THAT SUPPORT THE CONVERSION OF AGRICULTURAL LANDS FOR DISTRIBUTED SOLAR AND WIND GENERATION. MOTIVATED BY FEDERAL AND STATE SUBSIDIES AND DRASTIC DECLINES IN THE COST OF PHOTOVOLTAIC CELLS AND WIND TURBINES, ENERGY COMPANIES ARE LEASING AGRICULTURE LANDS TO SITE RENEWABLE ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE. THESE "AG-TO-ENERGY" LAND CONVERSIONS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO ALTER LAND VALUE AND REMOVE LARGE SWATHS OF FARMLAND FROM PRODUCTION, WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR THE PRODUCTION OF FOOD AND FUELS, AS WELL AS THE QUANTITY OF WATER USED AND NUTRIENT POLLUTION OF THE NATION'S FRESHWATER AND COASTAL ZONES. MOREOVER, CLIMATE VARIATIONS AND TRENDS IN WIND SPEEDS, CLOUD COVER AND RESULTANT INSOLATION, TEMPERATURE, AND RAINFALL CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE PRODUCTIVITY OF BOTH RENEWABLE ENERGY FACILITIES AND AGRICULTURAL LANDS, AS WELL AS WATER USE AND WATER QUALITY, WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE RESILIENCE OF THE INTEGRATED FEW SYSTEM. TO DATE, THE TRANSFORMATION OF THE FEW SYSTEM THROUGH MARKET-DRIVEN AG-TO-ENERGY LAND CONVERSIONS AND THE POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE FEW SYSTEM RESILIENCE REMAIN POORLY UNDERSTOOD.THIS PROJECT WILL DEVELOP AN UNDERSTANDING OF THE COMPLEX LINKAGES AND FEEDBACKS BY WHICH AG- TO-ENERGY LAND CONVERSIONS WILL TRANSFORM THE FEW SYSTEM, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR FEW SYSTEM RESILIENCE TO CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE AND OTHER EXOGENOUS SYSTEM DRIVERS. A GENERALIZABLE SYSTEMS MODELING FRAMEWORK WITH COUPLED ECONOMIC, AGRONOMIC, HYDROLOGIC, ENERGY, AND CLIMATE COMPONENTS IS PROPOSED FOR THIS PURPOSE. THIS MODELING WILL ADDRESS THE IMPACT OF AG-TO-ENERGY TRANSITIONS ON: (1) LAND MARKET DYNAMICS, (2) AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, (3) NEW WATER INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS, (4) NUTRIENT LEACHING AND TRANSPORT, (5) GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, (6) GRID-SCALE RESPONSES TO INCREASED RENEWABLE PENETRATION, AND THE INTERACTIONS AMONG THESE COMPONENTS. ANEW SPACE-TIME CLIMATE SIMULATOR WILL BE DEVELOPED AND COUPLED WITH SCENARIOS OF OTHER SYSTEM DRIVERS AND STATE-OF-THE- ART DECISION-ANALYTICS TO EXPLORE THE FUTURE RESILIENCE OF THE TRANSFORMED FEW SYSTEM. THE MODELING FRAMEWORK WILL BE APPLIED TO NEW YORK STATE, AN IDEAL TEST-BED DUE TO THE STATE'S INCENTIVES TO ACHIEVE 50% RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY BY 2030; A WATER SYSTEM THAT IS LARGELY SELF-CONTAINED WITHIN STATE BOUNDARIES; AND A THRIVING AGRICULTURAL SECTOR AT HIGHER RISK IN RECENT YEARS DUE TO CLIMATE IMPACTS.THE MODELING AND ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK DEVELOPED IN THIS WORK WILL PROVIDE INNOVATIONS OVER EXISTING APPROACHES, TRANSFORMING FUTURE FEW SYSTEM ANALYSES. THESE INCLUDE A NOVEL ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF LAND USE DYNAMICS, LOOSELY COUPLED WITH LANDSCAPE-SCALE, PROCESS-LEVEL MODELS OF AGRICULTURAL, WATER, AND ENERGY SYSTEMS. THE INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK OF COUPLED MODELS WILL PROVIDE NEW OPPORTUNITIES TO STUDY THE UNDERLYING MECHANISMS THAT DRIVE THE SPACE-TIME EVOLUTION OF FEW SYSTEMS,AS MANIFEST THROUGH LOCAL LAND MARKETS. A NOVEL CLIMATE SIMULATION MODEL WILL ADVANCE OUR ABILITY TO ASSESS SYSTEM RESILIENCE TO MULTI-SCALE CLIMATE PROCESSES, ACCOUNTING FOR STRUCTURE IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM RELEVANT TO FEW SYSTEMS AND CONSIDERING POTENTIAL, ALBEIT UNCERTAIN, CHANGES IN THE CLIMATE. FOR THE FIRST TIME, WE WILL COUPLE SUCH MULTI-SCALE CLIMATE SIMULATIONS WITH DECISION-ANALYTIC APPROACHES TO EXPLORE SYSTEM RESILIENCY IN A HIGH- DIMENSIONAL SPACE OF UNCERTAIN SYSTEM STRESSORS.THE RESULTS OF THIS WORK WILL PROVIDE A SCIENTIFIC BASIS TO IMPROVE NATIONAL, STATE, AND REGIONAL POLICY DECISIONS RELATED TO LAND USE, AGRICULTURE, RENEWABLE ENERGY, AND ENERGY PRICES OVER TIME AND SPACE TO PROMOTE FEW SYSTEM SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE AND MAXIMIZE NET BENEFITS TO SOCIETY. THE PIS HAVE STRONG RELATIONSHIPS WITH POLICY-MAKERS AND PRACTITIONERS IN ALL FEW SYSTEMS ACROSS THE STATE, AS WELL AS NETWORKS SUCH AS THE WATER RESOURCES INSTITUTE AND CORNELL COOPERATIVE EXTENSION TO LEVERAGE OUR OUTREACH EFFORTS. WE WILL DEVELOP FACT SHEETS AND POLICY BRIEFS SUMMARIZING OUR RESULTS TO LANDOWNERS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCERS, PUBLIC OFFICIALS, AND STATE AGRICULTURAL, ENERGY, AND ENVIRONMENTAL AGENCY STAFF. RESULTS WILL BE PRESENTED TO A PROJECT ADVISORY BOARD REPRESENTING THE FEW SYSTEM COMPONENTS, COMPOSED OF MEMBERS FROM NY DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL CONSERVATION (NYSDEC), ENERGY RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT AUTHORITY (NYSERDA), AND DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE AND MARKETS (NYSDAM). THE ADVISORY BOARD WILL MEET ANNUALLY, CONVENED BY THE NY WATER RESOURCES INSTITUTE (DIRECTED BY PI WALTER) TO PROVIDE POLICY-RELEVANT FEEDBACK AND EXPERT DOMAIN KNOWLEDGE FROM THE STATE.