GLOBALLY, SEA-LEVELS ARE PREDICTED TO RISE BY 25CM TO 1METER ON AVERAGE BY 2100 AND HAVE WIDESPREAD HUMAN AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS. IN AGRICULTURE, ECONOMIC IMPACTS FROM SEA-LEVEL RISE WILL COME PRIMARILY THROUGH INCREASED SALINITY EXPOSURE, PARTICULARLY IN COASTAL-RICE PRODUCTION. BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THESE ECONOMIC IMPACTS IS UNKNOW. IN LINE WITH THE OVERALL PRIORITY OF THE AFRI ECONOMICS, MARKETS, AND TRADE PROGRAM AREA, THIS RESEARCH WILL GENERATE AND APPLY AN INNOVATIVE FRAMEWORK TO EVALUATE THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF A MAJOR AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION COVARIATE-RISK ASSOCIATED WITH SEA-LEVEL RISE - SALINITY INTRUSION - USING AN INTEGRATED HYDROLOGIC-ECONOMIC MODEL. THE FRAMEWORK WILL BE APPLIED IN THE MEKONG DELTA OF VIETNAM; A MAJOR WORLD RICE EXPORTING REGION THAT IS EXTREMELY VULNERABLE TO SEA-LEVEL RISE.THE RESEARCH WILL CHARACTERIZE CURRENT AND FUTURE IMPACTS OF SALINITY INTRUSION ON FARM HOUSEHOLDS. A HYDROLOGIC MODEL WILL MAP 0, 10, 25, 50, AND 100 YEAR DISTRIBUTIONS OF SALINITY INCIDENCE AND INTENSITY. PRODUCTION RESPONSES TO SALINITY WILL BE ESTIMATED USING FIXED EFFECT STATISTICAL MODELS AND TWO DATASETS FOR SALINITY-PRONE AREAS; A 2018-2020 THREE-WAVE HOUSEHOLD PANEL SURVEY AND A 2005-2018 DISTRICT-LEVEL PRODUCTION TIME-SERIES. ASSOCIATED LOCAL AND WORLD MARKET PRICE SPILLOVERS WILL BE SIMULATED WITH A SPAITAL PARTIAL-EQUILIBRIUM MODEL - RICEFLOW. PRODUCTION RESPONSES, PRICE CHANGES, AND HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA WILL BE COMBINED TO ESTIMATE THE ECONOMIC COSTS OF SALINITY INTRUSION, INCLUDING RISK COSTS FROM INCREASD VARIATION IN HOUSEHOLD RICE INCOME. THE ANALYSIS WILL ALSO ESTIMATE ECONOMIC BENEFITS FROM ADAPTIVE RESPONSES TO MITIGATE SALINITY IMPACTS, LIKE SALT TOLERANT VARIETIES AND PROTECTIVE GATE INFRASTRUCTURE.
$499,761FY2019National Institute of Food and AgricultureUSDA
Virginia Polytechnic Institute & State University