THE PRESSURE ON US FARMERS TO PRODUCE MORE OUTPUT HAS LED TO THE UNSUSTAINABLE USE OF LAND AND WATER RESOURCES IN MANY LOCATIONS. EXCESS NITROGEN LOADING IN STREAMS AND RIVERS IS CAUSING BIODIVERSITY LOSS AS WELL AS DAMAGES TO HUMAN HEALTH. WATER AVAILABILITY FOR IRRIGATION ALSO POSES A SUSTAINABILITY CHALLENGE, AS DOES THE CONVERSION OF ENVIRONMENTALLY SENSITIVE AND EROSIVE LANDS FOR FARMING. THE OVERALL GOAL OF THIS PROJECT IS TO IMPROVE THE EMPIRICAL FOUNDATIONS USED TO ASSESS THE LONG RUN SUSTAINABILITY OF US AGRICULTURE, AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR PUBLIC AND PRIVATE INTERVENTIONS TO IMPROVE THESE OUTCOMES. MORE SPECIFICALLY, THE PROPOSED RESEARCH WILL ENHANCE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF GLOBAL DRIVERS OF FINE-SCALE LOCAL SUSTAINABILITY STRESSES, EVEN AS WE CAPTURE THE MARKET-MEDIATED FEEDBACKS FROM LOCAL INTERVENTIONS TO NATIONAL AND GLOBAL MARKETS. WE WILL DO SO BY BUILDING THE EMPIRICAL FOUNDATIONS OF A LONG RUN, GRIDDED MODEL OF US AGRICULTURE, NESTED WITHIN A GLOBAL ECONOMIC FRAMEWORK. THIS WILL INCLUDE ECONOMETRIC ESTIMATION OF GRIDDED NITROGEN FERTILIZER USE, LAND SUPPLY ELASTICITIES, AS WELL AS FINE-SCALE IRRIGATION DEMAND RESPONSES. WE WILL ALSO ESTIMATE THE INTRA-US REGIONAL TRADE RESPONSES GOVERNING THE SPATIAL REDISTRIBUTION OF CROP PRODUCTION IN RESPONSE TO CHANGES IN RELATIVE COSTS. HISTORICAL VALIDATION OF THIS FRAMEWORK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ITS USEFULNESS TO STAKEHOLDERS, WHOM WE WILL ENGAGE IN DISCUSSIONS OF POTENTIAL SUSTAINABILITY SOLUTIONS. THE PROJECT WILL CONCLUDE WITH A FARM FOUNDATION FORUM AT THE NATIONAL PRESS CLUB DURING WHICH KEY FINDINGS WILL BE DISCUSSED AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS EVALUATED.

Purdue University, West Lafayette IN

Investigators