A. OVERVIEWCLIMATE-CHANGE DRIVEN SHIFTS IN PRECIPITATION AND WATER STORAGE IN THE SIERRA NEVADA A MOUNTAIN RANGE THAT PROVIDES OVER 50% OF CALIFORNIA'S (CA) WATER SUPPLY ARE STRESSING ONE OF THE NATION'S MAIN FOOD-PRODUCING REGIONS. CALIFORNIA PRODUCES OVER A THIRD OF THE NATION'S VEGETABLES AND TWO-THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY'S FRUITS AND NUTS IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. CALIFORNIA'S WATER RESOURCES AND ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPED DURING A CLIMATE REGIME THAT NO LONGER EXISTS IS NOW ON THE BRINK OF NOT MEETING THE GROWING DEMANDS OF AGRICULTURE AND SOCIETY. SYSTEM STRESSORS INCLUDE REDUCTIONS IN SEASONAL SURFACE-WATER STORAGE CONTINUED GROUNDWATER OVERDRAFT REDUCED HYDROPOWER MORE-INTENSE STORM RUNOFF AND INCREASING DEMANDS FOR WATER AND ENERGY. TAKEN TOGETHER THESE STRESSORS PRESENT A UNIQUE CHALLENGE FOR THE FUTURE OF IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE. RECOGNIZING THE NEED FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE CALIFORNIA IS ADVANCING BOTH REQUIREMENTS AND INCENTIVES FOR IMPROVEMENT OF WATER AND ENERGY MANAGEMENT. ANALYZING THE FOOD-ENERGY-WATER SYSTEM AS COUPLED WILDLAND-WATER STORAGE-CROPLAND SUBSYSTEMS THIS RESEARCH WILL ASSESS HOW DIFFERENT CLIMATE-ADAPTION PATHWAYS AFFECT THIS SYSTEM'S RESILIENCE VULNERABILITY AND SUSTAINABILITY. MANAGEMENT AND ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS WILL BE ANALYZED USING A COUPLED HUMAN AND NATURAL SYSTEM (CHANS) FRAMEWORK THAT FULLY INTEGRATES BIOPHYSICAL ENGINEERING SOCIOECONOMIC AND HUMAN DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES AND FEEDBACKS.B. INTELLECTUAL MERITALIGNING AGRICULTURAL GROWTH GROUNDWATER SUSTAINABILITY CARBON NEUTRALITY AND THE BASIN-INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF WATER-RESOURCES SYSTEMS IS A CRITICAL NEED FOR OUR NATION'S CRITICAL FOOD-PRODUCING AREAS. TRANSFORMING THE TRADITIONALLY DISJOINTED DECISION-MAKING IN THESE SEPARATE SECTORS USING AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK THAT TAKES ADVANTAGE OF INTERDEPENDENCIES AND PROMOTES SHARED UNDERSTANDING IS BOTH CHALLENGING AND ACHIEVABLE. TRANSPARENT DATA AND INFORMATION INTEGRATED THROUGH CREDIBLE MANAGEMENT-FOCUSED MODELING TOOLS PROVIDE A FOUNDATION FOR CONDUCTING ALTERNATIVE FUTURES ANALYSES BUILDING DECISION SUPPORT AND ULTIMATELY PROMOTING MORE RESILIENT CALIFORNIA'S FOOD-ENERGY-WATER SYSTEM DECISION-MAKING. OUR PROPOSED MODELING FRAMEWORK WILL ADVANCE CURRENT CALIFORNIA'S FOOD-ENERGY-WATER SYSTEM PARADIGM IN THREE DIFFERENT WAYS:1. QUANTIFY FEEDBACKS AMONG CALIFORNIA'S WILDLANDS WATER-STORAGE AND CROPLANDS SUBSYSTEMS. MODELS OF HYDROLOGY ENERGY AND AGRICULTURAL SUBSYSTEMS WILL BE INTEGRATED USING ENVISION A GIS-BASED SPATIALLY EXPLICIT MULTIPARADIGM MODELING-FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYSIS OF CHANS AND ALTERNATIVE FUTURE SCENARIOS. THIS WILL ADVANCE INTEGRATED PROCESS UNDERSTANDING BY IDENTIFYING: INTERACTIONS FEEDBACKS NONLINEARITIES AND THRESHOLDS WITHIN THESE SUBSYSTEMS AND CA'S FEWS AS A WHOLE.2. EVALUATE THE DEGREE TO WHICH THESE SUBSYSTEMS ARE VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE. THE ENVISION MODEL WILL SIMULATE HOW AGRICULTURE CAN BESTADAPT TO THE UNPRECEDENTED CHANGES IN CLIMATE AND WATER AVAILABILITY CONTROLLED IN PART BY SIMULTANEOUS CHANGES IN WILDLAND AND STORAGE SUBSYSTEMS. THIS INVOLVES CONSIDERATION OF MULTIPLE CLIMATIC AND NON-CLIMATIC FACTORS THAT INFLUENCE VULNERABILITY AND RESILIENCE OF COUPLED FOOD-ENERGY-WATER SYSTEM.3. IDENTIFY THE MANAGEMENT AND POLICY STRATEGIES THAT BEST ADAPT THIS COUPLED FOOD-ENERGY-WATER SYSTEM TO CLIMATE CHANGE. THROUGH THIS COUPLED FOOD-ENERGY-WATER SYSTEM MODELING AND CLIMATE VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT AS WELL AS STAKEHOLDER INVOLVEMENT VIA OUR FACILITATED KNOWLEDGE-TO-ACTION NETWORK WE WILL IDENTIFY STRESSES RISKS AND EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES FOR ACHIEVING CO-BENEFITS WITHIN THIS FOOD-ENERGY-WATER SYSTEM.C. BROADER IMPACTSTHE HIGH VALUE OF WATER AND AGRICULTURE IN THE REGION THE WIDE VARIETY OF STAKEHOLDERS THE MAJOR PROJECTED IMPACTS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE RECENT REGULATORY PRESSURES MAKE THIS AN IDEAL LOCATION. THE MODELING TOOL WE DEVELOP WILL BE APPLICABLE TO OTHER REGIONS PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SEMI-ARID WESTERN UNITED STATES AND WORLDWIDE WHERE INTEGRATED WILDLAND STORAGE AND CROPLAND SYSTEMS ARE FACING SIMILAR ISSUES. CALIFORNIA IS COMMITTED TO TRANSFORMING ITS ECONOMY TO ONE BASED ON RENEWABLE ENERGY BY 2030; IMPORTANT KNOWLEDGE GAPS REMAIN REGARDING HOW THAT WILL BE ACHIEVED FOR THIS REGION. THE REGION ALSO NEEDS TO ADAPT TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE. THE PROPOSED RESEARCH WILL INFORM BOTH CONTEMPORARY DECISION-MAKING ON THESE ISSUES AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO EDUCATING THE NEXT GENERATION OF ENVIRONMENTAL AND WATER PROFESSIONALS. USING AVAILABLE AND CREDIBLE DATA FROM THE REGION SELECTIVE MODELING TO EXTEND THOSE DATA AND AN ACTIVE PROGRAM OF STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT THIS RESEARCH WILL GO FAR BEYOND JUST THE DEVELOPMENT OF TOOLS. IT WILL PROVIDE A FOUNDATION FOR BROADER ANALYSIS THAT CAN DRIVE REGIONAL COOPERATION IN PLANNING AND DECISION-MAKING TOWARD A MORE SUSTAINABLE FUTURE WITH CONSEQUENTIAL IMPACTS FOR THE NATION AND THE WORLD.