THIS PROJECT WORKS ON UNDERSTANDING HOW SWINE SHIPMENTS MIGHT IMPACT DISEASE SPREAD IN THE UNITED STATES (U.S.), HOW SURVEILLANCE FOR SWINE DISEASES AT SLAUGHTER COULD BE IMPROVED, AND WHICH CONTROL OPTIONS WOULD BE MOST USEFUL IN THE EVENT OF AN OUTBREAK OF CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER. WE FOCUS ON CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER FOR MULTIPLE REASONS. FIRST, CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER IS A HIGHLY INFECTIOUS DISEASE THAT REPRESENTS A MAJOR THREAT TO FOOD SAFETY AND SWINE HEALTH IN THE U.S. IT IS CONSIDERED A HIGH CONSEQUENCE DISEASE BY THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE (USDA TIER 1 DISEASE) AND IS RANKED SECOND BY THE SWINE INDUSTRY FOR RISK. ECONOMIC ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT A SINGLE OUTBREAK OF CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER IN THE U.S. COULD HAVE COSTS OF $2.6 - 4.1 BILLION. SECOND, CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER OCCURS IN DOMESTIC PIGS IN MULTIPLE CARIBBEAN COUNTRIES. BECAUSE CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER OCCURS IN COUNTRIES CLOSE TO THE U.S., UNDERSTANDING HOW TO PREVENT ITS INTRODUCTION OR TO RESPOND RAPIDLY IF THE DISEASE ISINTRODUCED IS CRITICAL. OUR PROJECT HAS THREE MAIN COMPONENTS. FIRST, UNDERSTANDING SWINE SHIPMENT IS A CRITICAL COMPONENT TO UNDERSTANDING AND MANAGING LONG-DISTANCE LIVESTOCK DISEASE SPREAD, BUT BECAUSE ALL ANIMAL SHIPMENTS ARE NOT RECORDED IN THE US, MODELS THAT ACCURATELY ESTIMATE SWINE SHIPMENTS ARE REQUIRED. WE WILL USE STATISTICAL MODELING METHODS TOGETHER WITH DATA ON SWINE SHIPMENTS AND INFRASTRUCTURE TO ESTIMATE THE NUMBER AND SIZE OF SWINE SHIPMENTS BETWEEN COUNTIES IN THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. SECOND, SURVEILLANCE AT SLAUGHTER FACILITIES IS THE MAJOR TYPE OF DISEASE SURVEILLANCE IN THE U.S. AND IS WHERE FIRST INDICATIONS OF UPTICKS IN DISEASE PREVALENCE FOR A NUMBER OF DISEASES COME FROM. SLAUGHTER SURVEILLANCE CURRENTLY TARGETS SPECIFIC PRODUCTION TYPES LIKE SOWS OR MARKET SWINE, BUT DOES NOT NECESSARILY HAVE OPTIMAL COVERAGE OF DIFFERENT SPATIAL LOCATIONS IN THE U.S. WITHOUT KNOWLEDGE OF SWINE SHIPMENTS, IT IS UNKNOWN HOW SLAUGHTER SURVEILLANCE EXACTLY CAPTURES THE PATTERNS OFDISEASE ACROSS THE DIFFERENT LOCATIONS THAT SHIP TO SLAUGHTER FACILITIES. WITHOUT UNDERSTANDING HOW THESE UPSTREAM LOCATIONS FLOW INTO SLAUGHTER SURVEILLANCE, SURVEILLANCE OPTIMIZATION IS NOT REALLY POSSIBLE AND THERE IS A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR THERE TO BE UNDER- OR OVER-SAMPLING OF GEOGRAPHIC AREAS OR OTHER ASPECTS OF THE INDUSTRY. THUS, WE PROPOSE TO USE INFORMATION ON SWINE SLAUGHTER LINKED TO OUR SWINE SHIPMENT PREDICTIONS IN ORDER TO BETTER UNDERSTAND THE GEOGRAPHIC AREAS THAT ARE CAPTURED BY SLAUGHTER SURVEILLANCE IN THE US AND TO SUGGEST DISTRIBUTION OF SLAUGHTER SURVEILLANCE EFFORTS THAT WOULD MORE EQUALLY CAPTURE MAJOR ASPECTS OF THE U.S. SWINE INDUSTRY. FINALLY, WE PLAN TO USE OUR PREDICTED SWINE SHIPMENTS TOGETHER WITH DATA ON PREVIOUS OUTBREAKS OF CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER IN OTHER COUNTRIES TO ESTIMATE THE POTENTIAL SIZE OF CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER OUTBREAKS IN THE U.S. WE WILL ALSO INVESTIGATE HOW DIFFERENT CONTROL OPTIONS LIKE QUARANTINE, SHIPMENT BANS, VACCINATION, AND CULLINGCAN BE USED TO REDUCE THE SIZE OF CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER OUTBREAKS IN THE U.S. IN ORDER TO INFORM PLANNING AND PREPAREDNESS FOR A POTENTIAL DISEASE OUTBREAK. OUR PROJECT HAS THREE SPECIFIC SCIENCE OBJECTIVES. THEY ARE TO: 1) DEVELOP THE UNITED STATES ANIMAL MOVEMENT MODEL FOR SWINE (USAMM-SWINE), A VALIDATED BAYESIAN HIERARCHICAL MODEL OF THE NUMBER AND SIZE OF SWINE SHIPMENTS BETWEEN ANY TWO COUNTIES IN THE CONTIGUOUS U.S. USING DATA FROM INTERSTATE CERTIFICATES OF VETERINARY INSPECTION, COMMUTER AGREEMENTS, AND THE NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE (E.G. SWINE INVENTORY); 2) USE USAMM-SWINE TO INFORM DISTRIBUTION OF SLAUGHTER SURVEILLANCE EFFORTS BY MAPPING THE AREAS OF INFLUENCE OF SLAUGHTER SURVEILLANCE USING DATA ON SLAUGHTER FACILITY LOCATIONS, VOLUMES, AND SUBMITTED SAMPLE RATES THAT WE WILL LINK TO USAMM-SWINE PREDICTIONS; AND 3) EVALUATE CONTROL OPTIONS FOR CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER USING THE UNITED STATES DISEASE OUTBREAK SIMULATION (USDOS), WHICH IS A PREMISES BASED SIMULATION MODEL OF LIVESTOCK DISEASE SPREAD THAT INCORPORATES LIVESTOCK SHIPMENTS PREDICTED BY USAMM-SWINE TOGETHER WITH DATA ON RATES OF CLASSICAL SWINE FEVER SPATIAL SPREAD FROM PREVIOUS OUTBREAKS.