THE GOAL OF THIS PROJECT IS TO OPTIMIZE THE FLOW OF ECOSYSTEM SERVICES FROM AGROECOSYSTEMS UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE BY DEVELOPING INNOVATIVE MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES. CRITICAL ECOSYSTEM SERVICES PROVIDED BY FORESTS IN THE WESTERN US ARE AT RISK OF DECLINE UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE AND ALTERED DISTURBANCE REGIMES. WE PROPOSE TO DEVELOP AND ASSESS A SERIES OF MANAGEMENT APPROACHES DESIGNED TO EASE TRANSITIONS AND ADAPT FORESTS TO NEW CONDITIONS. WE WILL USE COUPLED STATE-OF-THEART FOREST LANDSCAPE MODELS TO SIMULATE CLIMATE DRIVEN CHANGES IN FOREST DYNAMICS AND DISTURBANCE REGIMES (PROGRAM GOAL 2). THE MODELING WILL INCORPORATE CLIMATE IMPACTS ON FOREST GROWTH, WILDFIRE, INSECT OUTBREAKS, AND DROUGHT WITHIN A SPATIALLY INTERACTIVE LANDSCAPE. IN COOPERATION WITH NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGERS, WE WILL USE THE RESULTS FROM INITIAL LANDSCAPE OUTCOMES TO DEVELOP A SERIES OF TARGETED MANAGEMENT STRATEGIES (PROGRAM GOAL 1). WE WILL THEN RE-APPLY THE LANDSCAPE SIMULATION MODEL TO ASSESS THE RELATIVE EFFECTIVENESS OF THE NEW STRATEGIES. FOR EACH MANAGEMENT SYSTEM WE WILL CHARACTERIZE TIMBER STOCKS, CARBON STOCK AND FLOW, AND TREE SPECIES DIVERSITY. RESULTS WILL BE USED TO IDENTIFY THE STRATEGIES AND TRADE-OFFS THAT MAINTAIN OR INCREASE THE OVERALL OUTPUTS OF THESE ECOSYSTEM SERVICES. WE SELECTED THREE STUDY LANDSCAPES ALONG A LATITUDINAL ANDDISTURBANCE REGIME GRADIENT IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. WE EXPECT TO IDENTIFY UNIQUE REGIONAL TRENDS IN FOREST RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND DEVELOP APPROPRIATE TARGETED FOREST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES FOR VALUED ECOSYSTEM SERVICES. THE RESULTS WILL ENABLE MANAGERS TO PRIORITIZE TREATMENTS FOR TESTING IN THE FIELD AND EVENTUALLY IMPLEMENTING AT THE LANDSCAPE SCALE.

University Of Central Arkansas, Conway AR

Investigators