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THE RECENT SHALE BOOM HAS FLOODED RURAL COMMUNITIES ACROSS AMERICA WITH MONEY AND PEOPLE, LEADING ONE ENERGY EXECUTIVE IN 2011 TO BOLDLY PROCLAIM THAT "IT WILL BE THE BIGGEST THING...SINCE THE PLOW", YET LITTLE IS KNOWN ABOUT HOW IT IS CHANGING FAMILIES IN DRILLING COMMUNITIES. COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE BEGUN DEVELOPING THEIR SHALE RESOURCES HAVE EXPERIENCED INFLUXES OF MOSTLY YOUNG, MALE OIL AND GAS WORKERS. FOR INSTANCE, WILLIAMS COUNTY NORTH DAKOTA, THE EPICENTER OF THE HIGHLY LUCRATIVE BAKKEN SHALE PLAY, SAW TOTAL EMPLOYMENT RISE FROM 12,000 TO OVER 43,000 BETWEEN 2007-2014[2]. MONEY FLOWS INTO THESE COMMUNITIES HAVE BEEN EQUALLY EXTRAORDINARY, WITH LOTTERY-WINNER TYPE WEALTH COMING TO MANY LANDOWNERS. MOST RESEARCH HAS FOCUSED SHALE DEVELOPMENT'S ECONOMIC IMPACT ON COMMUNITIES, BUT EVIDENCE OF HOW SUCH DRAMATIC CHANGES IN WEALTH AND DEMOGRAPHICS IMPACT THINGS LIKE MARRIAGE, DIVORCE, FERTILITY, AND OTHER FAMILY CHANGES IS SCANT. YET, UNDERSTANDING SHALE DEVELOPMENT'S IMPACT ONFAMILY FORMATION, DISSOLUTION, AND COMPOSITION IS CRITICAL BECAUSE STRONG FAMILIES ARE CENTRAL TO RURAL COMMUNITY VITALITY AND RESILIENCE. WHEN FAMILIES THRIVE, COMMUNITIES THRIVE. WHEN FAMILY RELATIONSHIPS DETERIORATE, SOCIAL ILLS LIKE ADDICTION, ABUSE, AND DESPAIR FOLLOW (WILSON 2015). A PRIMARY INNOVATION OF OUR PROPOSAL IS THAT IT FOCUSES ON FAMILY OUTCOMES IMPACTED BY SHALE DEVELOPMENT, WHEREAS MOST RESEARCH TO THIS POINT HAS FOCUSED ON ECONOMIC OUTCOMES.WITHOUT RESEARCH DEMONSTRATING SHALE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT'S IMPACT ON FAMILY OUTCOMES, COMMUNITY LEADERS, FAMILIES, AND INDIVIDUALS MAKE IMPORTANT DECISIONS BASED ON INCOMPLETE INFORMATION. OURLONG-TERM GOAL IS TO AMEND THIS PROBLEM BY PRODUCING RELIABLE QUANTITATIVE ESTIMATES OF THE IMPACTS OF THE BOOM AND BUST PHASES OF SHALE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT ON FAMILY FORMATION, DISSOLUTION, AND COMPOSITION IN DRILLINGCOMMUNITIES.OUR CENTRAL HYPOTHESIS IS THAT THE FLOOD OF MONEY AND PEOPLE FLOWING INTO SHALE DRILLING COMMUNITIES DURING THEBOOM--AND THE SUBSEQUENT REVERSAL OF RESOURCE FLOWS DURING THE BUST--SUBSTANTIALLY ALTERS FAMILY OUTCOMES IN THOSE COMMUNITIES AND DIFFERENTLY THAN ECONOMIC SHOCKS FROM OTHER INDUSTRIES. A SECOND KEY INNOVATION OF OUR PROPOSAL IS THAT WE WILL COMBINE TWO HIGH-QUALITY RESTRICTED-ACCESS DATA SETS WHICH HAVE YET TO BE USED TO ANSWER QUESTIONS REGARDING SHALE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT AND FAMILIES. PUBLICALLY AVAILABLE DATA ON FAMILY OUTCOMES AND OIL AND GAS ACTIVITY IS CENSORED FOR MANY SMALLER, RURAL AREAS WHERE THE MAJORITY OF SHALE ACTIVITY IS TAKING PLACE AND HAS PRECLUDED RESEARCHERS FROM INVESTIGATING A POTENTIAL LINK BETWEEN SHALE DEVELOPMENT AND FAMILY OUTCOMES. WE WILL OVERCOME THIS CHALLENGE BY ACCESSING AND ANALYZING GEOGRAPHICALLY-RESTRICTED MARRIAGE AND FAMILY DATA AT THE U.S. CENSUS BUREAU'S KENTUCKY RESEARCH DATA CENTER (KRDC) IN COMBINATION WITH DETAILED PROPRIETARY OIL AND GAS EMPLOYMENT DATA FROM ECONOMIC MODELING SPECIALISTS INTERNATIONAL. WE HAVE ASSEMBLED AN INTERDISCIPLINARY TEAM OF RESEARCHERS THAT HAVE PREVIOUSLY WORKED TOGETHER ON MULTIPLE PROJECTS INVESTIGATING QUESTIONS RELATED TO FAMILY AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN NATURAL RESOURCE EXTRACTION COMMUNITIES. CONSEQUENTLY, OUR TEAM IS WELL-POSITIONED TO NAVIGATE THE DATA, METHODOLOGICAL, AND THEORETICAL CHALLENGES THAT MAY ARISE THROUGHOUT THIS RESEARCH PROJECT.WE WILL ACCOMPLISH OUR LONG-TERM GOAL BY FIRST ACCESSING, COMPILING, AND ORGANIZING THE RELEVANT DATA INTO A NATIONAL DATABASE OF KEY VARIABLES BASED ON THE KRDC AND EMSI DATA. WE WILL THEN USE THIS DATABASE TO ANSWER A BROAD RANGE OF RESEARCH QUESTIONS THAT EXAMINE THE INFLUENCE OF SHALE DEVELOPMENT ON FAMILY OUTCOMES IN DRILLING COMMUNITIES. LAST, WE WILL DISSEMINATE OUR FINDINGS TO KEY STAKEHOLDERS IN DRILLING COMMUNITIES THROUGH AN ESTABLISHED NETWORK OF COMMUNITY PARTNERSHIPS.THIS RESEARCH PROJECT WILL CREATE A WEALTH OF NEW PRACTICAL KNOWLEDGE ABOUT THE ONGOING SHALE ENERGY REVOLUTION VITAL TO RURAL FAMILIES AND COMMUNITIES. OUR RESEARCH WILL BETTER PREPARE THE OVER 750 MOSTLY RURAL COUNTIES THAT SIT ATOP SHALE OIL AND GAS RESERVES FOR THE NEXT BOOM OR BUST. IT WILL DETERMINE WHETHER LOCAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH SHALE DEVELOPMENT TRANSLATE INTO BETTER MARRIAGES OR MORE DIVORCES; MORE TWO-PARENT FAMILIES OR MORE SINGLE MOTHERS; STRONGER FAMILIES OR WEAKER; AND ANSWERS TO A HOST OF OTHER FAMILY-RELATED QUESTIONS. THE ANSWERS TO THESE QUESTIONS HAVE PROFOUND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FUTURE OF--NOT ONLY THE THOUSANDS OF FAMILIES--BUT THE HUNDREDS OF COMMUNITIES ACROSS AMERICA IMPACTED BY SHALE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT. BETTER-INFORMED STAKEHOLDERS WILL IN TURN CREATE STRONGER, MORE RESILIENT RURAL COMMUNITIES, ULTIMATELY FOSTERING A HIGHER QUALITY OF LIFE FOR THEIR RESIDENTS.[1] HTTP://WWW.REUTERS.COM/ARTICLE/US-OHIO-SHALE-IDUSBRE89L04H20121022[2] BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS QCEW DATA SERIES ID ENU3810510010.

$499,021FY2018National Institute of Food and AgricultureUSDA

Ohio State University, The, Columbus OH

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