CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE EASTERN CORN BELT REGION (ECBR) OF THE UNITED STATES IS PROJECTED TO BRING HIGHER TEMPERATURES MORE VARIABLE AND EXTREME LEVELS OF PRECIPITATION AND LONGER GROWING SEASONS. THESE CHANGES WILL INFLUENCE LAND USE AND MANAGEMENT ADAPTATIONS WHICH DEPEND ON THE BEHAVIORAL HETEROGENEITY OF INDIVIDUAL FAMERS AS WELL AS ECONOMIC POLICY AND TECHNOLOGICAL CONDITIONS IMPOSED BY BROADER HUMAN SYSTEMS. THESE BROADER SYSTEMS ALSO RESPOND TO ANTICIPATED CLIMATE VARIABILITY E.G. THROUGH CHANGES IN AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION SYSTEMS POLICIES AND MARKETS. THE ECBR IS EMBEDDED IN OTHER NATIONAL AND GLOBAL SYSTEMS AS WELL: CLIMATE CHANGE IS PROJECTED TO BE EVEN MORE SEVERE IN COASTAL AND DROUGHT-PRONE AREAS POTENTIALLY CREATING GREATER PRESSURE FOR FOOD PRODUCTION IN THE ECBR AND INDUCING HUMAN MIGRATION TO THE ECBR. WHILE THESE POSSIBILITIES IMPLY OPPORTUNITY FOR THE ECBR MANAGING CHANGE WILL BE INCREASINGLY CHALLENGING. STAKEHOLDERS AT HOUSEHOLD FIRM INDUSTRY COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL LEVELS NEED MORE INFORMATION AND A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF THE SYSTEM-WIDE IMPLICATIONS OF THESE CHANGES.WE PROPOSE RESEARCH THAT WILL ELEVATE THE CAPACITY OF DECISION MAKERS IN THE ECBR TO ADAPT TO AN INCREASINGLY VARIABLE CLIMATE AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANGES THAT THIS INCREASED VARIABILITY MAY BRING. TO DO THIS WE DEMONSTRATE AN INTEGRATED REGIONAL APPROACH THAT CAN BE APPLIED TO GUIDE MORE SUSTAINABLE AND RESILIENT AGROECOSYSTEMS ACROSS THE NATION. THE ECBR IS AN APPROPRIATE STUDY REGION GIVEN IT CONTAINS SOME OF THE MOST INTENSIVE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE MIDWEST AS WELL AS SIGNIFICANT URBAN AND FORESTED AREAS. OUR APPROACH IS TO IDENTIFY HOW CHANGING SEASONAL AND EXTREME PRECIPITATION PATTERNS INDUCE CHANGES IN ECBR LAND USE AND MANAGEMENT PATTERNS DUE TO ADAPTATIONS BY HETEROGENEOUS FARMERS AND THE BROADER HUMAN SYSTEM. BECAUSE THE ECBR AGROECOSYSTEM IS MANAGED WITH AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION CONSERVATION AND SOCIETAL WELL-BEING GOALS IN MIND WE WILL BUILD AN INTEGRATED SET OF MODELS OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM REGIONAL ECONOMY AND AGROECOLOGICAL OUTCOMES AND USE THIS TO EVALUATE POLICIES AND PROGRAMS BY PROJECTING THEIR IMPACTS ON THE SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE OF THIS REGIONAL AGROECOSYSTEM UNDER VARYING FUTURE SCENARIOS. A PARTICIPATORY MODELING APPROACH IS USED THROUGHOUT THE PROJECT TO ENGAGE A KEY GROUP OF STAKEHOLDERS IN DEVELOPING THE MODEL AND SCENARIOS AND IDENTIFYING RELEVANT ADAPTATIONS AND POLICIES.OUR TEAM INCLUDES OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY RESEARCHERS AFFILIATED WITH THE COLLEGE OF FOOD AGRICULTURE AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES ARTS AND SCIENCES COLLEGE AND THE BYRD POLAR AND CLIMATE RESEARCH CENTER WORKING COLLABORATIVELY ACROSS THE NATURAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES TO ADDRESS THE PROGRAM AREA PRIORITY OF CLIMATE LAND USE AND LAND MANAGEMENT. SPECIFICALLY OUR RESEARCH WILL INCREASE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF CLIMATE-AGROECOSYSTEMS INTERACTIONS AND THE IMPLICATIONS OF LAND USE AND MANAGEMENT ADAPTATIONS TO CLIMATE CHANGE FOR AGROECOSYSTEM SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE. OUR STAKEHOLDER ENGAGEMENT WILL ENSURE THAT THE OUTCOMES GENERATED WILL BE USEFUL TO DECISION MAKERS ACROSS THE AGRICULTURAL SYSTEM. THESE KEY OUTCOMES INCLUDE: (I) INNOVATIONS IN COUPLING DOWNSCALED CLIMATE PROJECTIONS WITH MODELS OF HETEROGENEOUS FARMER BEHAVIOR AND REGIONAL LAND USE AND MANAGEMENT MODELS; (II) INNOVATIONS IN MODELING THE IMPACTS OF FUTURE CLIMATE VARIABILITY ON A REGIONAL AGROECOSYSTEM THAT CAN BE APPLIED IN OTHER REGIONS; (III) INCREASED AWARENESS OF HOW CLIMATE HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST CENTURY IN THE ECBR; (IV) INCREASED UNDERSTANDING OF FUTURE CLIMATE SCENARIOS AND LIKELY AGROECOSYSTEM RESPONSES IN THE ECBR; AND (V) IMPROVED STAKEHOLDER CONFIDENCE IN THE ABILITY TO MITIGATE CLIMATE-INDUCED RISKS THROUGH MORE INFORMED PROGRAMS POLICIES AND LAND USE AND MANAGEMENT.
$1,154,306FY2018National Institute of Food and AgricultureUSDA
Ohio State University, The, Columbus OH