SEMI-ARID ECOSYSTEMS, SUCH AS THOSE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US, PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN REGULATING THE AMOUNT OF CARBON IN THE ATMOSPHERE. THESE ECOSYSTEMS ARE WATER LIMITED AND DURING HIGH PRECIPITATION YEARS CAN SEQUESTER LARGE AMOUNTS OF CARBON FROM THE ATMOSPHERE. IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US, REGIONAL CLIMATE MODELS PROJECT WARMER TEMPERATURES, DECREASED WINTER PRECIPITATION, AND MORE VARIABLE SUMMER RAINFALL REGIMES. AS A CONSEQUENCE, WIDESPREAD CONIFER MORTALITY IS PROJECTED FOR THIS REGION, DRIVEN BY INCREASING ARIDITY AND SEVERE, CLIMATE CHANGE TYPE DROUGHTS. WIDESPREAD CONIFER MORTALITY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SUBSTANTIALLY ALTER CARBON CYCLE DYNAMICS. IN ADDITION TO DROUGHT RELATED TREE MORTALITY, WILDFIRES IN FORESTED ECOSYSTEMS HAVE INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE WESTERN US SINCE THE 1970S AND THE IMPACTS OF INCREASING FREQUENCY OF LARGE WILDFIRES ON BOTH SOCIETY AND NATURAL SYSTEMS HAVE BEEN PROFOUND. POST-FIRE REFORESTATION EFFORTS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO INFLUENCE BOTH FUTURE CARBON DYNAMICS AND THE SERVICES THAT FORESTS PROVIDE TO SOCIETY, BUT THE SUITABILITY OF TREE SPECIES UNDER WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THIS OVERALL GOAL OF THIS RESEARCH PROJECT IS TO UNDERSTAND HOW POTENTIAL CHANGES IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF DIFFERENT TREE SPECIES WILL BE ALTERED BY CHANGING CLIMATE AND HOW POST-FIRE TREE ESTABLISHMENT SUCCESS WILL AFFECT CARBON DYNAMICS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN US.TO ACCOMPLISH THIS GOAL, WE WILL USE A COMMON GARDEN EXPERIMENT WITH TREE SEEDLINGS. THIS APPROACH INVOLVES PLANTING TREE SPECIES FROM DIFFERENT FOREST TYPES IN COMMON LOCATIONS AT DIFFERENT ELEVATIONS. THIS EXPERIMENT WILL ALLOW US TO UNDERSTAND HOW INDIVIDUAL TREE SPECIES ARE ABLE TO COPE WITH DIFFERENT TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION REGIMES. WE WILL USE THIS INFORMATION AND DATA COLLECTED WITH SATELLITES AND UNMANNED AERIAL SYSTEMS TO MODEL HOW TERRAIN VARIABILITY AND VEGETATION INFLUENCE SEEDLING ESTABLISHMENT SUCCESS IN A POST-FIRE LANDSCAPE. WE WILL THEN USE BOTH THE COMMON GARDEN AND REMOTE SENSING RESULTS TO IMPROVE A SIMULATION MODEL. THE SIMULATION MODEL WILL ALLOW US TO SIMULATE HOW FOREST COVER AND TREE SPECIES COMPOSITION WILL CHANGE AS A FUNCTION OF WILDFIRE, DROUGHT, AND HIGHER TEMPERATURES.THE RESULTS FROM THIS RESEARCH WILL HELP IMPROVE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF HOW DIFFERENT TREE SPECIES RESPOND TO CHANGING CLIMATE AND DISTURBANCE PATTERNS. THIS INFORMATION WILL BE USEFUL FOR UNDERSTANDING HOW BEST TO MANAGE POST-FIRE LANDSCAPES TO ACHIEVE REFORESTATION OBJECTIVES ACROSS LARGE BURNED AREAS.