MANAGING WATER FOR AGRICULTURE UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE ADAPTATION MEASURES IN ORDER TO MAINTAIN OR INCREASE EXISTING PRODUCTIVITY. IN REGIONS SUCH AS THE U.S. CORN BELT, WHERE PRECIPITATION HAS HISTORICALLY BEEN WELL DISTRIBUTED THROUGH THE GROWING SEASON, AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL INTENSITY WILL LEAD TO LESS INFILTRATION AND MORE RUNOFF, WHILE SUMMER DROUGHTS WILL INTENSIFY CROP WATER. THIS INCREASED VOLATILITY OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO NEGATIVELY IMPACT CORN AND SOYBEAN YIELDS.CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION TECHNOLOGY THAT INCREASES WATER STORAGE IN THE AGRICULTURAL LANDSCAPE CAN INCREASE RESILIENCY TO BOTH WATER EXCESS AND WATER SCARCITY. DRAINAGE WATER RECYCLING (DWR), IN WHICH RUNOFF AND DRAINAGE WATER ARE STORED IN PONDS DURING THE NON-GROWING SEASON AND IRRIGATED BACK ONTO CROPS IN THE SUMMER WHEN CROP WATER USE IS HIGH, IS A CAPITAL-INTENSIVE YET EFFECTIVE PRACTICE THAT WOULD INCREASE RESILIENCY OF AGRICULTURE TO CLIMATE CHANGE. IT WOULD IMPROVE AGRICULTURAL WATER USE BY REDUCING GROUNDWATER WITHDRAWALS FOR IRRIGATION WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY REDUCING NUTRIENT LOSSES TO DOWNSTREAM WATERS. HOWEVER, ONLY A SMALL PORTION OF FARMERS HAVE ADOPTED THIS PRACTICE.ONE BARRIER TO ADOPTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION TECHNOLOGY LIKE DWR MAY BE THE BELIEF HELD BY 59% OF FARMERS THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS NOT OCCURRING OR IT IS PRIMARILY A NATURAL CYCLE THAT THEY HAVE LITTLE CONTROL OVER, OR THE BELIEF HELD BY 89% OF FARMERS THAT THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE TO JUSTIFY CHANGING THEIR AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES (MORTON ET AL., IN REVIEW).A SECOND POSSIBLE BARRIER IS THAT FARMERS DO NOT YET KNOW WHAT CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS ARE AVAILABLE OR EFFECTIVE. TO ADDRESS THIS POTENTIAL BARRIER DUE TO LACK OF KNOWLEDGE, USDA NIFA HAS FUNDED NUMEROUS RESEARCH AND EXTENSION PROJECTS OVER THE LAST SIX YEARS TO DEVELOP AND DISSEMINATE KNOWLEDGE ON EFFECTIVE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION. THREE COORDINATED AGRICULTURAL PROJECTS THAT HAVE RECEIVED MORE THAN $60 MILLION TO FOCUS ON AGRICULTURE AND CLIMATE CHANGE, AND DOZENS OF SMALLER PROJECTS THAT HAVE CREATED EXTENSIVE EXTENSION NETWORKS FOR DISSEMINATING ADAPTATION STRATEGIES. THE TRANSFORMING DRAINAGE PROJECT IS WORKING TO ADVANCE DWR AND SIMILAR WATER STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES. YET DESPITE THIS SUBSTANTIAL PUBLIC INVESTMENT IN INCREASING KNOWLEDGE OF ADAPTATION TECHNOLOGIES, ADOPTION REMAINS LOW.A THIRD POSSIBLE BARRIER APPLIES TO FARMERS WHO DO BELIEVE THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS REAL, THAT IT WILL AFFECT THEIR FUTURE CROP YIELDS, AND THAT EFFECTIVE ADAPTATION TECHNOLOGIES ARE AVAILABLE. THESE FARMERS MAY CALCULATE SUBSIDIZED CROP INSURANCE IS A MORE ECONOMICAL RISK MANAGEMENT STRATEGY THAT ADOPTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION TECHNOLOGIES LIKE DWR, AND THEREFORE DECIDE NOT TO ADOPT. THIS PROJECT FOCUSES ON THIS THIRD BARRIER, AND WILL INVESTIGATE THE SUBSTITUTION POTENTIAL OF SUBSIDIZED CROP INSURANCE AND THE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION TECHNOLOGY OF DWR IN ORDER TO BETTER UNDERSTAND DECISIONS AND BEHAVIOR CONNECTED TO AGRICULTURAL WATER USE. WE PROPOSE A FIRST ATTEMPT TO UNRAVEL THE INTERMINGLING OF PRODUCER DECISIONS RELATED TO MITIGATING THE POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE THROUGH A WATER STORAGE AND USE TECHNOLOGY LIKE DRAINAGE WATER RECYCLING. DWR AND CROP INSURANCE ARE POTENTIAL SUBSTITUTES, AND GOVERNMENT INCENTIVES DIRECTED TOWARD ADOPTION OF ONE WILL ACT AS A DISINCENTIVE TO THE OTHER. OUR PROJECT WILL DETERMINE THE DEGREE OF THE SUBSTITUTION EFFECT FOR DWR AS AN EXAMPLE OF AN EFFECTIVE, BUT CAPITAL-INTENSIVE, CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION TECHNOLOGY.DETERMINING THIS SUBSTITUTION EFFECT WILL INVOLVE LINKING SOCIOLOGICAL, ECONOMIC, AND TECHNICAL UNDERSTANDING OF PRODUCERS' UNDERLYING ATTITUDES AND DECISION PROCESSES TO THEIR ADOPTION RESPONSE. TECHNICAL AND ASSOCIATED SUNK COSTS OF DWR IMPLEMENTATION WILL BE IDENTIFIED IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE CURRENT REQUIREMENTS FOR PARTICIPATING IN CROP INSURANCE. PRODUCERS' DECISIONPROCESS AND BEHAVIOR RELATED TO DRAINAGE WATER RECYCLING AND CROP INSURANCE WILL BE DETERMINED FROM SURVEY RESPONSES. WE WILL SUPPLEMENT THIS BEHAVIOR DETERMINATION WITH AN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY OF DWR CONSIDERING PRODUCERS WITH AND WITHOUT CROP INSURANCE. IN A REAL OPTIONS FRAMEWORK, THE INCREASE IN THE OPTION VALUE WILL BE DETERMINED FOR PRODUCERS WITH CROP INSURANCE. THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS OPTION VALUE CHANGE DETERMINES THE DEGREE OF THE DRAINAGE WATER RECYCLING/INSURANCE SUBSTITUTION EFFECT. POSSIBLE GOVERNMENT MECHANISMS FOR REDUCING THE RETARDING EFFECT OF CROP INSURANCE ON DWR ADOPTION WILL THEN BE CONSIDERED, WHICH MAY TAKE THE FORM OF REDUCED CROP-INSURANCE SUBSIDIES FOR PRODUCERS WHO CHOOSE NOT TO ADOPT, OR MODIFICATIONS TO SUBSIDIES FOR ADOPTION. SUCH GOVERNMENT MECHANISMS WILL BE DEVELOPED IN THE LIGHT OF PRODUCERS' ATTITUDES TOWARD DWR AND CROP INSURANCE ELICITED FROM SURVEY RESPONSES AND THE IMPACT THESE MECHANISMS HAVE ON THE OPTION VALUE TO ADOPT DWR WITH AND WITHOUTCROP INSURANCE.
$462,479FY2017National Institute of Food and AgricultureUSDA
Purdue University, West Lafayette IN