FRUITS AND VEGETABLES PLAY ESSENTIAL ROLES IN NUTRITIOUS DIETS, BUT PROSPECTS FOR CONTINUED INCREASES IN PRODUCTION ARE THREATENED BY THE COMBINATION OF ONGOING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE, LOSS OF FRESHWATER AVAILABILITY, AND COMPETITION FOR OTHER RESOURCES. SUCH CONCERNS OCCUR NATIONALLY, BUT ARE ESPECIALLY ACUTE IN CALIFORNIA, THE LEADING US SOURCE OF FRUITS AND VEGETABLES. WHILE SEVERAL MODEL-BASED ASSESSMENTS HAVE ASSESSED CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND POSSIBLE LAND USE CHANGE FOR STAPLE CROPS, NONE HAVE FOCUSED ON FRUITS AND VEGETABLES. THE ABSENCE OF SUCH INFORMATION PREVENTS DECISION MAKERS FROM ACTING TO MAINTAIN THESE ESSENTIAL COMPONENTS OF A NUTRITIOUS NATIONAL FOOD SUPPLY.THIS PROJECT FILLS THAT GAP BY USING A HOLISTIC, SYSTEMS APPROACH BASED ON CROP, ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING TO IDENTIFY AND TEST CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION INTERVENTION STRATEGIES THAT CAN BE APPLIED TO ENHANCE SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SUPPLY CHAINS IN THE US. THE FOCUS IS ON ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND LAND USE CHANGE RESULTING FROM RELOCATION OF SUCH CROPS FROM CALIFORNIA TO PRODUCTION REGIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST.THE RESEARCH WILL IDENTIFY CRITICAL POINTS OF INTERVENTION ALONG SUPPLY CHAINS THAT HAVE THE GREATEST CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION POTENTIAL, ACCOUNTING FOR THE BEHAVIOR OF BOTH BIOPHYSICAL AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEMS. STAKEHOLDERS AND DECISION MAKERS WILL BE ENGAGED THROUGHOUT, TO ENSURE MODELS REFLECT REALISTIC PRACTICES AND THAT OUTPUTS PROVIDE USEFUL, ACTIONABLE INFORMATION TO PRODUCE SUSTAINABLE FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SUPPLY CHAINS - THEREBY ENHANCING THE ENVIRONMENT AND MAINTAINING NUTRITIOUS FOOD - WHILE MITIGATING RISKS AND CONSEQUENCES RESULTING FROM INCREASING CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE.UP UNTIL NOW, MOST RESEARCH ON CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION OPPORTUNITIES IN THE AGRICULTURE HAS FOCUSED ON THE MAJOR GRAIN STAPLE CROPS: CORN, RICE, SOYBEANS, AND WHEAT. FRUIT AND VEGETABLE PRODUCTION SYSTEMS DRAMATICALLY DIFFER FROM SUCH GRAIN PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN MANY IMPORTANT WAYS. THEY TEND TO BE HIGHER-VALUE, IRRIGATED SYSTEMS, AND HAVE EVOLVED IN THE US TO BECOME HIGHLY "VERTICALLY INTEGRATED," SUCH THAT FOOD ITEMS PICKED IN THE MORNING (OFTEN BY HAND, REQUIRING A LARGE SEASONAL LABOR FORCE) WILL EITHER BE SENT TO MARKET, OR OTHERWISE PROCESSED/PACKAGED LATER THAT SAME DAY. ANOTHER IMPORTANT DISTINGUISHING FEATURE OF NEARLY ALL FRUITS IS THAT THEY ARE PERENNIAL CROPS, WHICH UNDERGO A LENGTHY JUVENILE PERIOD PRIOR TO BEARING FRUIT AND REQUIRE EXTENSIVE IRRIGATION.IN THE US, AND PARTICULARLY IN CALIFORNIA, THESE FEATURES HAVE CAUSED FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SYSTEMS TO BECOME CONCENTRATED IN AREAS WHERE IRRIGATION WATER AND LABOR ARE PLENTIFUL, AND WHICH ARE LOCATED NEAR PROCESSING AND PACKING FACILITIES. SUCH A HIGH CONCENTRATION OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLE PRODUCTION IN A REGION WITH RECURRING AND INCREASING CONCERNS ABOUT WATER AVAILABILITY RAISES SERIOUS QUESTIONS ABOUT THE LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY OF SUCH A PRODUCTION STRATEGY.EARLIER IN THE NATION'S HISTORY, THE CROPS THAT ARE NOW BASED IN CALIFORNIA WERE GROWN PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHEASTERN US, BUT SEVERAL FACTORS PREVENT THEIR RETURN. FRUITS AND VEGETABLES ARE NOW GROWN BY A RELATIVELY SMALL NUMBER OF HIGHLY EXPERIENCED INDIVIDUALS WHO POSSESS THE NECESSARY LEVELS OF MOTIVATION, FINANCIAL RESOURCES, AND RISK MANAGEMENT EXPERTISE. THE EXTENSIVE BUILT INFRASTRUCTURE THAT SUPPORTS PRODUCTION OF THESE FOOD CROPS (EFFICIENT IRRIGATION SYSTEMS, MARKET ACCESS, COOLING PLANTS, PACKING SHEDS) IS NO LONGER PRESENT IN NON-PRODUCTION REGIONS. IN ADDITION, MODERN CULTIVARS ARE BASED ON SEEDS LOCALLY ADAPTED FOR THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE CURRENT PRODUCTION REGIONS. DESPITE THE DIFFICULTY OF SHIFTING THESE PRODUCTION SYSTEMS, CURRENT CLIMATE MODEL PROJECTIONS SUGGEST THAT SUCH RELOCATION IS LIKELY TO BECOME A NECESSARY ADAPTATION STRATEGY, DUE TO EXPECTED EXTREME TEMPERATURES AND WATER RESOURCE CONSTRAINTS.THE SPECIALIZED AND INTEGRATED CHARACTER OF THE FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SECTOR REQUIRES CONSIDERATION OF THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WHEN EVALUATING CLIMATE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION RESPONSES TO CLIMATE CHANGE-DRIVEN SHIFTS IN PRODUCTION. THUS, A LIFE-CYCLE PERSPECTIVE, CONSIDERING BOTH UPSTREAM INPUTS (IRRIGATION WATER, FERTILIZER, FUEL, SEEDS, ETC.) AND DOWNSTREAM OUTCOMES (LOSS AND WASTE, PROCESSING, TRANSPORT, MARKETS) IS A NATURAL PARADIGM FOR EVALUATION OF THE ENTIRE PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION SUPPLY CHAIN.SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE IN AGRICULTURE ARE MULTIDIMENSIONAL, ENCOMPASSING NOT ONLY ENVIRONMENTAL BUT ALSO ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ASPECTS. EVALUATION OF BOTH MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES MUST INCLUDE CONSIDERATION OF THE COSTS AND BENEFITS AND BE TRANSPARENT IN IDENTIFICATION OF TRADE-OFFS. AS AN EXAMPLE, IF CLIMATE CHANGE LEADS TO THE RELOCATION OF PRODUCTION AWAY FROM CALIFORNIA, A POTENTIAL FORCED TRADE OFF WILL BE INCREASED COSTS AND EMISSIONS FROM LONGER TRANSPORT DISTANCES, DUE TO THE LACK OF PROCESSINGINFRASTRUCTURE IMMEDIATELY AVAILABLE IN THE NEW LOCATION. THUS, MITIGATION STRATEGIES FOCUSING ON TRANSPORTATION LOGISTICS AND FUEL EFFICIENCY MAY BECOME MORE IMPORTANT.IT IS WITH ALL THIS IN MIND THAT THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA AND THE ILSI RESEARCH FOUNDATION ASSEMBLED A SKILLED, MULTI-DISCIPLINARY, MULTI-INSTITUTIONAL TEAM OF RESEARCHERS, EDUCATORS, AND EXTENSION SPECIALISTS TO DEVELOP A PROJECT PROPOSAL TO USDA/NIFA ENTITLED, "CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION IN FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SUPPLY CHAINS." THE OTHER PARTNER ORGANIZATIONS ARE THE INTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE (IFPRI), UNIVERSITY OF ARKANSAS, UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS, WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY, AND THE WORLD AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL SERVICES (WAEES). THE OVERALL GOAL OF THE PROJECT IS TO IDENTIFY AND TEST CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION INTERVENTION STRATEGIES THAT CAN BE APPLIED TO ENHANCE SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SUPPLY CHAINS IN THE US, THEREBY PROVIDING ACTIONABLE STRATEGIES TO MAINTAIN A NUTRITIOUS, RELIABLE, AFFORDABLE AND ENVIRONMENTALLY-SOUND FOOD SUPPLY.THE RESEARCHERS WILL USE CROP MODELING TO DETERMINE CURRENT AND FUTURE CLIMATE AND WATER AVAILABILITY IMPACTS ON YIELD AND QUALITY OF SELECTED FRUIT AND VEGETABLE CROPS IN CURRENT AND POTENTIAL FUTURE PRODUCTION STATES, WITH A FOCUS ON ADAPTATION STRATEGIES AND LAND USE CHANGE RESULTING FROM RELOCATION OF CROPS FROM CALIFORNIA TO NEW PRODUCTION REGIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. ECONOMIC MODELING WILL BE COUPLED TO CROP MODELING RESULTS TO DETERMINE CURRENT AND FUTURE PRICES AND PRODUCTION COSTS OF SELECTED FRUIT AND VEGETABLE CROPS: CARROTS, GREEN BEANS, ORANGES, POTATOES, SPINACH, STRAWBERRIES, SWEET CORN, AND TOMATOES.A PARTICULAR FORM OF ENVIRONMENTAL MODELING (LIFE-CYCLE ASSESSMENT OR LCA) WILL BE LINKED TO THE CROP AND ECONOMIC MODELING AND THEREBY USED TO EXAMINE CURRENT AND POTENTIAL FUTURE FRUIT AND VEGETABLE VALUE CHAINS TO IDENTIFY AND EVALUATE COST-EFFECTIVE CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION OPPORTUNITIES. THE TEAM WILL ENGAGE STAKEHOLDERS AND DECISION MAKERS THROUGHOUT THE MODELING ACTIVITIES TO ENSURE THAT THE MODELS REFLECT REALISTIC PRACTICES AND THAT THE OUTPUTS PROVIDE USEFUL, ACTIONABLE INFORMATION, WHICH WILL THEN BE COMMUNICATED THROUGHOUT FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SUPPLY CHAINS. THE COMMUNICATION STRATEGY WILL ALSO INCLUDE THE TRADITIONAL EDUCATION AND EXTENSION FUNCTIONS OF BOTH THE UNIVERSITY OF FLORIDA AND WASHINGTON STATE UNIVERSITY.USING THIS INTEGRATED, COLLABORATIVE APPROACH, THE TEAM MEMBERS INVOLVED IN THE PROJECT WILL IDENTIFY AND TEST CLIMATE ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION INTERVENTION STRATEGIES THAT CAN BE APPLIED TO ENHANCE SUSTAINABILITY AND RESILIENCE OF FRUIT AND VEGETABLE SUPPLY CHAINS IN THE US, THEREBY PROVIDING ACTIONABLE STRATEGIES TO MAINTAIN A NUTRITIOUS, RELIABLE, AFFORDABLE AND ENVIRONMENTALLY-SOUND FOOD SUPPLY.?