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ANTHROPOGENIC CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2) EMISSIONS ARE A DOMINANT SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET. REPORTING PROGRAMS LIKE THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE OFTEN LACK ROBUST MEASUREMENT VALIDATION AND ARE UNLIKELY TO KEEP PACE WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING INFRASTRUCTURE PARTICULARLY IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD. GLOBAL INVENTORIES OF FOSSIL CO2 EMISSIONS OFTEN RELY ON ACCOUNTING OF FUEL CONSUMPTION POPULATION DYNAMICS AND OTHER ACTIVITY DATA. THESE FACTORS RESULT IN AN ESTIMATED UNCERTAINTY OF GLOBAL ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 EMISSIONS IN EXCESS OF 1.0 GTC/YR. POINT SOURCE EMISSIONS (E.G. CO2 FROM COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS) DRIVE MORE THAN ONE THIRD OF THE ANTHROPOGENIC BUDGET SO UNCERTAINTY REDUCTION FOR THESE CO2 POINT SOURCES WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RECONCILING GLOBAL FOSSIL FUEL CO2 EMISSIONS. WHETHER WE CAN REDUCE THIS UNCERTAINTY USING SPACE-BASED REMOTE SENSING IS AN OPEN QUESTION. WITH ACTIVE TARGETING OF EXISTING SATELLITES WE CAN DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 BUDGET CAN BE CONSTRAINED WITH CURRENT CAPABILITIES AND HOW MUCH MORE INFORMATION WE CAN ANTICIPATE WITH FUTURE PLANNED MISSIONS. QUANTIFYING AND ULTIMATELY REDUCING CO2 EMISSIONS FROM STRONG DISCRETE POINT SOURCES IS AN URGENT CLIMATE MITIGATION PRIORITY. THIS INVESTIGATION WILL DEMONSTRATE THE FEASIBILITY OF MONITORING CO2 EMISSIONS FROM GLOBAL POWER PLANTS USING SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING. BY EXTENSIVELY ANALYZING RETRIEVED CO2 INFORMATION FROM A SUBSET OF GLOBAL FACILITIES THE PROJECT PLANS TO ANSWER (1) HOW MUCH THIS POPULATION DEVIATES FROM BOTTOM-UP GLOBAL INVENTORIES AND (2) THE THRESHOLD FOR POINT SOURCES WE CAN DETECT ESTABLISHING AN EMPIRICAL DETECTION LIMIT. THROUGH THE PROPOSED DATA ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK A DATA SYSTEM WILL BE BUILT THAT WILL BE SCALABLE FOR FUTURE SATELLITE MISSIONS (CO2M GEOCARB MICROCARB GEMS TEMPO SBG AND CHIME ETC.). DEVELOPING THE FRAMEWORK WITH SENSORS CURRENTLY ON-ORBIT AND VALIDATING EXTENSIVELY WITH CEMS WILL INSTILL CONFIDENCE IN METHODS AS WE INTEGRATE NEW SATELLITE SENSOR OBSERVATIONS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR OBSERVATIONS OF CO2 POINT SOURCE EMISSIONS IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD WHERE THERE IS POOR BOTTOM UP OR INVENTORY KNOWLEDGE OF CO2 EMISSIONS.

$126,000FY2021National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA

University Of Arizona, Tucson AZ

Investigators

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ANTHROPOGENIC CARBON DIOXIDE (CO2) EMISSIONS ARE A DOMINANT SOURCE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET. REPORTING PROGRAMS LIKE THE UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE OFTEN LACK ROBUST MEASUREMENT VALIDATION AND ARE UNLIKELY TO KEEP PACE WITH RAPIDLY CHANGING INFRASTRUCTURE PARTICULARLY IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD. GLOBAL INVENTORIES OF FOSSIL CO2 EMISSIONS OFTEN RELY ON ACCOUNTING OF FUEL CONSUMPTION POPULATION DYNAMICS AND OTHER ACTIVITY DATA. THESE FACTORS RESULT IN AN ESTIMATED UNCERTAINTY OF GLOBAL ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 EMISSIONS IN EXCESS OF 1.0 GTC/YR. POINT SOURCE EMISSIONS (E.G. CO2 FROM COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS) DRIVE MORE THAN ONE THIRD OF THE ANTHROPOGENIC BUDGET SO UNCERTAINTY REDUCTION FOR THESE CO2 POINT SOURCES WOULD HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON RECONCILING GLOBAL FOSSIL FUEL CO2 EMISSIONS. WHETHER WE CAN REDUCE THIS UNCERTAINTY USING SPACE-BASED REMOTE SENSING IS AN OPEN QUESTION. WITH ACTIVE TARGETING OF EXISTING SATELLITES WE CAN DETERMINE HOW MUCH OF THE ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 BUDGET CAN BE CONSTRAINED WITH CURRENT CAPABILITIES AND HOW MUCH MORE INFORMATION WE CAN ANTICIPATE WITH FUTURE PLANNED MISSIONS. QUANTIFYING AND ULTIMATELY REDUCING CO2 EMISSIONS FROM STRONG DISCRETE POINT SOURCES IS AN URGENT CLIMATE MITIGATION PRIORITY. THIS INVESTIGATION WILL DEMONSTRATE THE FEASIBILITY OF MONITORING CO2 EMISSIONS FROM GLOBAL POWER PLANTS USING SATELLITE REMOTE SENSING. BY EXTENSIVELY ANALYZING RETRIEVED CO2 INFORMATION FROM A SUBSET OF GLOBAL FACILITIES THE PROJECT PLANS TO ANSWER (1) HOW MUCH THIS POPULATION DEVIATES FROM BOTTOM-UP GLOBAL INVENTORIES AND (2) THE THRESHOLD FOR POINT SOURCES WE CAN DETECT ESTABLISHING AN EMPIRICAL DETECTION LIMIT. THROUGH THE PROPOSED DATA ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK A DATA SYSTEM WILL BE BUILT THAT WILL BE SCALABLE FOR FUTURE SATELLITE MISSIONS (CO2M GEOCARB MICROCARB GEMS TEMPO SBG AND CHIME ETC.). DEVELOPING THE FRAMEWORK WITH SENSORS CURRENTLY ON-ORBIT AND VALIDATING EXTENSIVELY WITH CEMS WILL INSTILL CONFIDENCE IN METHODS AS WE INTEGRATE NEW SATELLITE SENSOR OBSERVATIONS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT FOR OBSERVATIONS OF CO2 POINT SOURCE EMISSIONS IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD WHERE THERE IS POOR BOTTOM UP OR INVENTORY KNOWLEDGE OF CO2 EMISSIONS. · GrantIndex