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THE PROPOSED WORK IS CONCERNED WITH THE ROLE OF THE INTERACTION OF AEROSOL WITH RADIATION AND CLOUDS IN DETERMINING THE SKILL AND PREDICTABLITY OF SUBSEASONAL AND SEASONAL FORECASTS. IT IS WELL ESTABLISHED THAT THE EMISSION AND TRANSPORT OF PARTICULATE MATTER FROM NATURAL AND ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN MODULATING THE EARTH S RADIATIVE BALANCE AND IMPACT THE GLOBAL CIRCULATION AND THE HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE. A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF INVESTIGATION HAS SHOWN THAT WHEN SUSTAINED OVER DECADES AEROSOL DIRECT AND INDIRECT EFFECTS HAVE A SIZABLE IMPACT ON CLIMATE. MUCH LESS EFFORT HAS BEEN DEVOTED TO UNDERSTANDING WHETHER SUCH IMPACTS MANIFEST OVER MONTHS OR EVEN DAYS HENCE THEIR RELEVANCE IN WEATHER FORECAST. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE REGARDING THE AEROSOL INDIRECT EFFECT. ONLY A SINGLE REPORT HAS BEEN PUBLISHED ON ITS POTENTIAL EFFECT ON SUBSEASONAL PREDICTION. YET THERE IS EVIDENCE OF SIGNIFICANT ASYMMETRICAL HEATING PATTERNS INDUCED BY AEROSOL FORCING THAT MAY PROPAGATE GLOBALLY THROUGH THE MODIFICATION OF LARGE SCALE CIRCULATION SYSTEMS. HERE A SYSTEMATIC APPROACH IS PROPOSED TO FILL SUCH A GAP IN OUR UNDERSTANDING OF ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES BY COMBINING REANALYSIS TECHNIQUES ATMOSPHERIC MODELING AND COUPLED ATMOSPHERIC-OCEAN FORECASTS. WE INVESTIGATE THE ROLE OF AEROSOL-CLOUD-RADIATION INTERACTIONS ON THE PREDICTABILITY AND PREDICTION SKILL OF SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL (S2S) FORECASTS. A NOVEL ASPECT OF OUR APPROACH IS THE EMPHASIS ON THE ROLE OF FORECAST OF OPPORTUNITY (FOO) PERIODS ON THE S2S FORECAST PERFORMANCE ASSESSED THROUGH THE USAGE OF REANALYSIS TECHNIQUES.

$319,120FY2021National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA

University Of Wyoming, Laramie WY

Investigators

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