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TWO RECENT DEVASTATING EARTHQUAKES THE 1999 M = 7.6 CHI-CHI (TAIWAN) 2010 M=6.4 KAOHSIUNG (TAIWAN) AND OTHER MODERATE SIZE EARTHQUAKES (6<M<7) OCCURRED IN TROPICAL MOUNTAINOUS AREAS SHORTLY AFTER WET TROPICAL CYCLONES (HURRICANE OR TYPHOON) HIT THE SAME AREAS. A SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF MAIN-SHOCK EARTHQUAKES AND THE SIX WETTEST TYPHOONS IN TAIWAN S PAST 50 YEARS REVEALS SIMILAR TEMPORAL RELATIONS BETWEEN M=5 EVENTS AND WET TYPHOONS. WE SUGGEST THAT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY IN TIME AND SPACE BETWEEN WET CYCLONES (TYPHOONS) AND M=5 EARTHQUAKES IN TAIWAN (AND LIKELY ELSEWHERE) REFLECTS CASCADING HAZARDS OCCURRENCE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE S HEAVY RAIN INDUCED LANDSLIDING AND RAPID EROSION WHICH RESULTED IN SURFACE UNLOADING AND REDUCTION OF NORMAL STRESS BENEATH THE ERODED AREA. THE REDUCED NORMAL STRESS BROUGHT INCLINED THRUST FAULTS CLOSER TO THEIR FAILURE CONDITIONS WHICH EVENTUALLY LED TO THE EARTHQUAKE RUPTURES WITHIN A SHORT TIME (3-38 MONTHS) AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT. THE PROPOSED PROJECT IS AIMED AT TESTING THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL HYPOTHESIS: MASSIVE EROSION INDUCED BY WET TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN TRIGGER EARTHQUAKES IN SEISMICALLY ACTIVE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. AS HEAVY RAIN EVENT ARE ALSO KNOWN TO TRIGGER SEISMIC ACTIVITY WE POSTULATED THE FOLLOWING COMPETING HYPOTHESIS: PORE FLUID INCREASE INDUCED BY WET CYCLONES CAN TRIGGER EARTHQUAKES IN THE SAME MOUNTAINOUS TECTONIC ENVIRONMENT. EACH OF THE TWO PROPOSED TRIGGERING MECHANISM IS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT TIME LAG BETWEEN THE HEAVY RAIN AND THE INDUCED SEISMICITY MONTHS-YEARS FOR SURFACE UNLOADING AND DAYS-MONTHS FOR PORE PRESSURE DIFFUSION. TO TEST THESE TWO HYPOTHESES WE PROPOSE TO CONDUCT THE FOLLOWING RESEARCH COMPONENTS: (1) EVALUATE THE AMOUNT AND TIMING OF EROSION FOLLOWING WET CYCLONES USING REMOTE SENSING AND SEDIMENT FLUX MEASUREMENTS IN TAIWAN (2) USE GEODETIC OBSERVATIONS (GPS) TO ASSESS SURFACE UNLOADING (3) CONDUCT SEISMIC AND GEODETIC MONITORING OF LANDSLIDES (4) EXTEND THE PRELIMINARY WET CYCLONE-EARTHQUAKE DELAY ANALYSIS TO LOWER MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKES (M=4) (5) EVALUATE SEISMICITY RATE CHANGES BETWEEN TROPICAL CYCLONES AND SUBSEQUENT EARTHQUAKES AND (6) CONDUCT DETAILED MODELING OF SUBSURFACE STRESS CHANGES BASED ON THE EROSIONAL UNLOADING ANALYSIS AND/OR PORE PRESSURE DIFFUSION. OUR PROPOSAL IS DIRECTLY RELEVANT TO THE SUBELEMENT 3 CALL IN NASA S INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH IN EARTH SCIENCES FOR UNDERSTANDING THE PHYSICAL LINKAGES BETWEEN THE INITIAL TRIGGER EVENT AND THE SUBSEQUENT HAZARDS . BY UTILIZING REMOTE SENSING AND OTHER IN SITU DATA WE WILL DEVELOP PHYSICAL MODELS THAT CAN EXPLAIN THE APPARENT TRIGGERING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WET TROPICAL CYCLONES LANDSLIDES AND SUBSEQUENT LARGE EARTHQUAKES AND USE THEM TO FORECAST OCCURRENCE OF THOSE CASCADING EXTREME EVENTS.

$1,197,930FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA

Florida International University, Miami FL

Investigators

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TWO RECENT DEVASTATING EARTHQUAKES THE 1999 M = 7.6 CHI-CHI (TAIWAN) 2010 M=6.4 KAOHSIUNG (TAIWAN) AND OTHER MODERATE SIZE EARTHQUAKES (6<M<7) OCCURRED IN TROPICAL MOUNTAINOUS AREAS SHORTLY AFTER WET TROPICAL CYCLONES (HURRICANE OR TYPHOON) HIT THE SAME AREAS. A SYSTEMATIC ANALYSIS OF MAIN-SHOCK EARTHQUAKES AND THE SIX WETTEST TYPHOONS IN TAIWAN S PAST 50 YEARS REVEALS SIMILAR TEMPORAL RELATIONS BETWEEN M=5 EVENTS AND WET TYPHOONS. WE SUGGEST THAT THE CLOSE PROXIMITY IN TIME AND SPACE BETWEEN WET CYCLONES (TYPHOONS) AND M=5 EARTHQUAKES IN TAIWAN (AND LIKELY ELSEWHERE) REFLECTS CASCADING HAZARDS OCCURRENCE. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE S HEAVY RAIN INDUCED LANDSLIDING AND RAPID EROSION WHICH RESULTED IN SURFACE UNLOADING AND REDUCTION OF NORMAL STRESS BENEATH THE ERODED AREA. THE REDUCED NORMAL STRESS BROUGHT INCLINED THRUST FAULTS CLOSER TO THEIR FAILURE CONDITIONS WHICH EVENTUALLY LED TO THE EARTHQUAKE RUPTURES WITHIN A SHORT TIME (3-38 MONTHS) AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT. THE PROPOSED PROJECT IS AIMED AT TESTING THE FOLLOWING CENTRAL HYPOTHESIS: MASSIVE EROSION INDUCED BY WET TROPICAL CYCLONES CAN TRIGGER EARTHQUAKES IN SEISMICALLY ACTIVE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. AS HEAVY RAIN EVENT ARE ALSO KNOWN TO TRIGGER SEISMIC ACTIVITY WE POSTULATED THE FOLLOWING COMPETING HYPOTHESIS: PORE FLUID INCREASE INDUCED BY WET CYCLONES CAN TRIGGER EARTHQUAKES IN THE SAME MOUNTAINOUS TECTONIC ENVIRONMENT. EACH OF THE TWO PROPOSED TRIGGERING MECHANISM IS ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENT TIME LAG BETWEEN THE HEAVY RAIN AND THE INDUCED SEISMICITY MONTHS-YEARS FOR SURFACE UNLOADING AND DAYS-MONTHS FOR PORE PRESSURE DIFFUSION. TO TEST THESE TWO HYPOTHESES WE PROPOSE TO CONDUCT THE FOLLOWING RESEARCH COMPONENTS: (1) EVALUATE THE AMOUNT AND TIMING OF EROSION FOLLOWING WET CYCLONES USING REMOTE SENSING AND SEDIMENT FLUX MEASUREMENTS IN TAIWAN (2) USE GEODETIC OBSERVATIONS (GPS) TO ASSESS SURFACE UNLOADING (3) CONDUCT SEISMIC AND GEODETIC MONITORING OF LANDSLIDES (4) EXTEND THE PRELIMINARY WET CYCLONE-EARTHQUAKE DELAY ANALYSIS TO LOWER MAGNITUDE EARTHQUAKES (M=4) (5) EVALUATE SEISMICITY RATE CHANGES BETWEEN TROPICAL CYCLONES AND SUBSEQUENT EARTHQUAKES AND (6) CONDUCT DETAILED MODELING OF SUBSURFACE STRESS CHANGES BASED ON THE EROSIONAL UNLOADING ANALYSIS AND/OR PORE PRESSURE DIFFUSION. OUR PROPOSAL IS DIRECTLY RELEVANT TO THE SUBELEMENT 3 CALL IN NASA S INTERDISCIPLINARY RESEARCH IN EARTH SCIENCES FOR UNDERSTANDING THE PHYSICAL LINKAGES BETWEEN THE INITIAL TRIGGER EVENT AND THE SUBSEQUENT HAZARDS . BY UTILIZING REMOTE SENSING AND OTHER IN SITU DATA WE WILL DEVELOP PHYSICAL MODELS THAT CAN EXPLAIN THE APPARENT TRIGGERING RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WET TROPICAL CYCLONES LANDSLIDES AND SUBSEQUENT LARGE EARTHQUAKES AND USE THEM TO FORECAST OCCURRENCE OF THOSE CASCADING EXTREME EVENTS. · GrantIndex