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ADEQUATE REPRESENTATIONS OF CUMULUS CONVECTION AND ITS INTERACTION WITH ENVIRONMENT IN GLOBAL CLIMATE MODELS (GCMS) IS A PREREQUISITE FOR GCMS TO ACCURATELY SIMULATE THE WATER AND ENERGY CYCLES IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM AND THEIR CHANGES IN THE FUTURE. CUMULUS CLOUDS CANNOT BE EXPLICITLY RESOLVED IN CONTEMPORARY GCMS AND THEREFORE NEED TO BE PARAMETERIZED. DESPITE ITS IMPORTANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF CUMULUS PARAMETERIZATIONS HAS BEEN NOTABLY SLOW PRIMARILY DUE TO OUR LACK OF UNDERSTANDING OF CUMULUS CONVECTION. CONSIDERING THAT MANY GCM BIASES STEM FROM IMPERFECT PARAMETERIZATIONS OF CUMULUS CONVECTION THE PROCESSORIENTED DIAGNOSTICS THAT COULD PROVIDE DIRECT CLUES ABOUT DEFICIENCY OF PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES WILL HELP ACCELERATING THE GCM DEVELOPMENT. THE PROPOSED RESEARCH TARGETS TWO SPECIFIC PROCESSES WHOSE REPRESENTATIONS IN GCMS ARE HEAVILY AFFECTED BY CONVECTION AND LARGESCALE CLOUD SCHEMES IN GCMS MOISTURE-CONVECTION COUPLING AND CLOUD-RADIATION FEEDBACKS. A SET OF THE PROCESS-ORIENTED DIAGNOSTICS FOR THE TARGET PROCESSES WILL BE PRODUCED WITH MULTIPLE DATASETS THAT INCLUDES THE NEWLY AVAILABLE NASA OBSERVATIONS (GPM) AND REANALYSIS PRODUCT (MERRA2). UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROCESS-ORIENTED DIAGNOSTICS THAT WILL BE PRODUCED UNDER THE PROPOSED RESEARCH WILL BE QUANTIFIED BY COMPARING DIAGNOSTIC RESULTS MADE WITH NASA DATASETS TO THOSE MADE WITH DATA FROM OTHER SOURCES. PERTURBED-PHYSICS ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS WILL BE CONDUCTED WITH THE NASA GISS GCM BY VARYING KEY PARAMETERS IN THE CONVECTION AND LARGE-SCALE CLOUD SCHEMES. THE SIMULATION RESULTS WILL BE ANALYZED WITH THE PROCESS-ORIENTED DIAGNOSTICS TO IDENTIFY LINKS BETWEEN THE GCM'S PARAMETERIZATION SCHEMES AND THE GCM REPRESENTATION OF THE TARGETED PROCESSES. THE PROCESS-ORIENT DIAGNOSTICS PRODUCED UNDER THE PROPOSED RESEARCH WILL BE USED TO EVALUATE CMIP6 SIMULATIONS TO PINPOINT NECESSARY MODEL IMPROVEMENTS IN REGARDING THE TARGET PROCESSES. THE PRODUCTION AND APPLICATION OF THE PROCESS-ORIENTED DIAGNOSTICS PACKAGE WILL BE PERFORMED BY BUILDING UPON THE PI S EXTENSIVE EXPERIENCE AND EXPERTISE ON THE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION PROCESS-ORIENTED DIAGNOSTICS DEVELOPMENT AND EVALUATION OF MULTI-MODEL SIMULATIONS. THE PROPOSED WORK WILL CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVE UNDERSTANDING OF THE MOISTURE-CONVECTION COUPLING AND CLOUD-RADIATION FEEDBACK PROCESSES IN THE TROPICS. REGARDING THE TIGHT ASSOCIATION OF MOISTURE-CONVECTION COUPLING AND CLOUD-RADIATION FEEDBACK PROCESSES WITH TROPICAL CONVECTION AN ENHANCED UNDERSTANDING OF THESE PROCESSES WILL HELP US BETTER UNDERSTAND THE NATURE OF TROPICAL CONVECTION. THE ANTICIPATED RESULTS OF THE PROPOSED PROJECT WILL THEREBY CONTRIBUTE TO ENHANCE THE REPRESENTATION OF TROPICAL CONVECTION AND ITS INTERACTION WITH ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE AND RADIATION IN GCMS. THE PROCESS-ORIENTED DIAGNOSTICS DEVELOPED UNDER THE PROPOSED RESEARCH WILL CONTRIBUTED TO AN ENHANCED REPRESENTATION OF THE TARGET PROCESS IN GCMS WHICH WILL LIKELY BE ACHIEVED BY IMPROVED REPRESENTATIONS OF TROPICAL CONVECTION. THEREFORE IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE OUTCOME OF THE PROPOSED WORK WILL ACCELERATE GCM DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY THE PARAMETERIZATIONS OF CONVECTION AND LARGE-SCALE CLOUDS WHICH WILL REDUCE THE UNCERTAINTY OF PREDICTIONS BASED ON THE GCMS.

$513,226FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA

University Of Washington, Seattle WA

Investigators

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