IN A SERIES OF SEMINAL PAPERS NASA FUNDED RESEARCH PUT FORTH THE BROWN OCEAN THEORY. THE BROWN OCEAN THEORY IS BASED ON THE GREEN OCEAN ANALOGY THAT HAS BEEN PUT FORTH TO DESCRIBE THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF THE AMAZON FOREST TO THE REGIONAL HYDROCLIMATE REGIME. IN THE BROWN OCEAN UGA STUDIES DEFINED THE NEW TERMINOLOGY TO DESCRIBE TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT MAINTAIN OR INCREASE STRENGTH AFTER LANDFALL. IN POSSIBLY THE FIRST GLOBAL ASSESSMENT OF TROPICAL CYCLONE MAINTENANCE/INTENSIFICATION (TCMI) EVENTS THESE STUDIES EVALUATED POST-LANDFALL STRUCTURE AND STRENGTH OF INLAND TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THE MAJOR BASINS. THE STUDY EVALUATED STORMS FROM 1979 TO 2008 USING NOAA IBTRACS DATA. NASA'S MODERN ERA RETROSPECTIVE-ANALYSIS FOR RESEARCH AND APPLICATIONS (MERRA) DATA WERE USED TO DIAGNOSE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND ATMOSPHERIC STRUCTURE. OUT OF 227 CASES 45 INCREASED OR MAINTAINED STRENGTH AS DETERMINED BY WIND SPEED OR PRESSURE. THE HOTSPOT FOR TCMI EVENTS WAS AUSTRALIA BUT CASES WERE ALSO FOUND IN THE UNITED STATES AND CHINA. THE ANALYSIS SUGGESTED THAT BROWN OCEAN ENVIRONMENT CONSISTS OF THREE OBSERVABLE CONDITIONS: (1) A BAROTROPIC LOWER ATMOSPHERE WITH MINIMAL TEMPERATURE VARIATIONS (2) SUFFICIENT ANTECEDENT SOIL MOISTURE AND (3) LATENT HEAT FLUX VALUES FROM EVAPORATION THAT REACH AT LEAST 70 WATTS AVERAGED PER SQUARE METER. BECAUSE INLAND RAINFALL AND WIND IMPACTS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONES ARE SIGNIFICANT MORE RIGOROUS EVALUATION IS REQUIRED. NASA S OBSERVATIONAL AND MODELING ASSETS INCLUDING THE SOIL MOISTURE ACTIVE AND PASSIVE (SMAP) MISSION AND THE NASA UNIFIED WRF (NUWRF) AND COUPLED LAND INFORMATION SYSTEM (LIS) MODELS ARE IDEAL FOR CONFIRMING THE BROWN OCEAN CONCEPT WITH A MORE RIGOROUS SCIENTIFIC TREATMENT. SPECIFIC RESEARCH QUESTIONS INCLUDE: 1) HOW DO NATURAL VARIABILITY AND HETEROGENEITY OF LAND SURFACE MOISTURE (I.E. SIGNIFICANT WET/DRY ANOMALIES DRIVEN BY PRECIPITATION IMPACTS OF INLAND WATER BODIES SUCH AS LAKES) CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF AN INLAND TC? 2) DO HUMAN- MANAGED LANDSCAPES SUCH AS IRRIGATED AREAS CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTENSIFICATION OF AN INLAND TC THROUGH THE AVAILABILITY OF SEASONAL LAND SURFACE MOISTURE? 3) TO WHAT DEGREE DOES SATELLITE-BASED SOIL MOISTURE ASSIMILATION (E.G. SMAP) IMPROVE TC INTENSIFICATION PREDICTION? WE WILL DEVELOP A CYCLONE-BASIN SPECIFIC COMPOSITE SOIL MOISTURE CLIMATOLOGIES FOR THE PERIOD OF RECORD OF SMAP AND COMPARE THAT WITH LONGER-TERM CLIMATOLOGIES GENERATED BY MERRA-2. WE ARE PARTICULARLY INTERESTED IN IDENTIFYING RELATIVE HOTSPOTS DURING THE SMAP PERIOD OF RECORD RELATIVE TO A 30-YEAR MERRA-2 NORMAL. THE 36-KM SMAP RADIOMETER BASED PRODUCTS WILL PRIMARILY BY UTILIZED IN THIS ANALYSIS. WE WILL ALSO COLLABORATE WITH NASA TO CONDUCT A SERIES OF LAND DATA ASSIMILATION (DA) EXPERIMENTS USING THE NASA UNIFIED WRF (NU-WRF) MODEL COUPLED TO THE LAND INFORMATION SYSTEM (LIS). THIS WORK WILL STRONGLY LEVERAGE CURRENT NASA FIELD MODELING AND OBSERVATIONAL ACTIVITIES. WE ARE DIRECTLY ADDRESSING THE NASA REQUEST FOR THE MODELING ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION (MAP) THEMES OF (RFP SECTION 3) A) EXTREMES IN THE EARTH SYSTEM (HURRICANE INTENSITY AND STRUCTURE) B) COUPLING IN THE EARTH SYSTEM (LAND-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTIONS) AND C) ASSIMILATION (ABILITY TO ASSIMILATE SHORT-TERM RECORDS OF SOIL MOISTURE).
$313,322FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
University Of Georgia Research Foundation, Inc.