THE GOAL OF THIS PROJECT IS TO DEVELOP A BAYESIAN FRAMEWORK TO CALCULATE THE PROBABILITY THAT A DIRECTLY IMAGED PLANET IS A) HABITABLE AND B) DEMONSTRATES SIGNS OF LIFE. TO DETERMINE WHETHER THE PLANET IS HABITABLE WE WILL PROBABILISTICALLY CONSTRAIN ITS ORBITAL PROPERTIES AND COMPOSITION BASED ON OUR CURRENT UNDERSTANDING OF EXOPLANET STATISTICS AND STELLAR PROPERTIES. TO DETERMINE IF LIFE CAN BE DETECTED ON THE PLANET WE WILL COMPARE THE MEASURED CHEMICAL ABUNDANCES OF ITS ATMOSPHERE TO THOSE OF CURRENT THEORETICAL MODELS FOR ABIOTIC AND BIOTIC ATMOSPHERES. FINALLY WE WILL INCORPORATE RESULTS FROM ADJACENT FIELDS SUCH AS GEOLOGY AND BIOPHYSICS TO FURTHER REFINE OUR PRIORS. THE CODE WE USE TO IMPLEMENT THIS FRAMEWORK WILL BE PUBLISHED UPON THE CONCLUSION OF THE PROJECT. THROUGHOUT ALL OF THESE STEPS WE WILL SET UP MOCK SURVEYS TO EVALUATE THE SCIENTIFIC POTENTIAL OF TWO PROPOSED DIRECT IMAGING SPACE MISSION CONCEPTS: HABEX AND LUVOIR. IN PARTICULAR WE WILL DETERMINE WITH WHAT DEGREE OF CERTAINTY THE MISSIONS WILL BE ABLE TO DETECT HABITABLE PLANETS AND LIFE AND WE WILL ASSESS THE WAYS IN WHICH THEY WILL BENEFIT OUR GENERAL UNDERSTANDING OF EXOPLANET COMPOSITIONS AND ATMOSPHERES. THESE RESULTS WILL BE DELIVERED TO THE COMMUNITY IN ADVANCE OF THE 2020 DECADAL SURVEY. BY DEVELOPING A ROBUST STATISTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR THE INTERPRETATION OF IMAGING DATA FOR POTENTIALLY HABITABLE EXOPLANETS WE WILL ENABLE FUTURE OBSERVERS TO ASSIGN A DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE TO POTENTIAL DETECTIONS OF HABITABLE PLANETS AND OF LIFE. BY ASSESSING THE PROPOSED IMAGING MISSIONS AND ADJACENT TECHNOLOGIES TO BE USED IN THIS SEARCH WE WILL HELP THE COMMUNITY TO BEST DIRECT ITS INSTRUMENTATION EFFORTS OVER THE NEXT DECADE. IN DOING SO WE WILL CONTRIBUTE SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE PLANETARY SCIENCE DIVISION'S GOAL TO EXPLORE AND FIND LOCATIONS WHERE LIFE COULD HAVE EXISTED OR MAY EXIST TODAY.
$130,269FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
University Of Arizona, Tucson AZ