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ALTHOUGH SEA LEVEL RISE IS A GLOBAL PHENOMENON THE IMPACTS ARE LOCAL AND ARE HAPPENING NOW. PLANNING FOR ADAPTING TO AND MITIGATING CURRENT AND FUTURE SEA LEVEL HAS NECESSARILY BEGUN IN MANY THREATENED AREAS. EXPENSIVE DECISIONS - BOTH IN ECONOMIC AND SOCIETAL TERMS - ARE ALREADY BEING MADE. THE URGENCY IN ADDRESSING SEA LEVEL RISE (SLR) THAT IS APPARENT ACROSS THE GLOBE RUNS COUNTER TO THE NOTION THAT SLR IS A PROBLEM OF THE FUTURE WHICH IS STILL PREVALENT IN BOTH SCIENTIFIC AND PUBLIC SETTINGS. THIS IS PERHAPS BEST EVIDENCED BY AND IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE WIDE-SPREAD FOCUS ON PROJECTIONS OF GLOBAL MEAN SEA LEVEL IN 2100 THAT OFTEN SERVE AS THE SCIENTIFIC FOUNDATION UPON WHICH PLANNING EFFORTS ARE BASED. THE PREVALENCE OF THESE LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS CREATES A DILEMMA ESPECIALLY FOR THE PLANNING HORIZONS OF 10-20 YEARS THAT ARE COMMON FOR COASTAL DEVELOPMENTS AND INFRASTRUCTURE. AT DECADAL TIMESCALES INTERNAL CLIMATE OSCILLATIONS LEAD TO REGIONAL SEA LEVEL TRENDS THAT DEVIATE SUBSTANTIALLY FROM THE GLOBAL RATE OF RISE WHICH GREATLY REDUCES THE UTILITY OF CENTURY-SCALE PROJECTIONS. UNFORTUNATELY RELIABLE REGIONAL PROJECTIONS DECADAL TIMESCALES DO NOT EXIST AND PLANNERS RELY ON THE LONG-TERM GLOBAL SEA LEVEL PROJECTIONS OUT TO 2100 WITH RELATIVELY SIMPLE ADJUSTMENTS THAT ACCOUNT FOR DIFFERENT TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL SCALES. IN THIS PROPOSAL WE FOCUS ON IDENTIFYING EXPLAINING AND QUANTIFYING THE TWO DOMINANT CONTRIBUTORS TO REGIONAL SEA LEVEL CHANGE ON INTERANNUAL TO DECADAL TIMESCALES: INTERNAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND LAND MOTION. WE WILL APPLY THESE RESULTS TO IMPROVE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF REGIONAL SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND BY EXTENSION IMPROVE PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE. THE PRIMARY SCIENTIFIC GOAL OF THIS PROPOSAL IS TO USE NASA SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH AVAILABLE IN SITU AND MODEL DATA TO EXHAUSTIVELY STUDY INTERANNUAL TO DECADAL SLR CULMINATING IN REGIONAL RELATIVE SLR PROJECTIONS FOR THE COMING DECADE. SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS ARE KEY ON THESE SHORT TIMESCALES AND OUR INVESTIGATION IS DESIGNED TO DEMONSTRATE THE DIRECT WAY IN WHICH NASA SATELLITES CAN BE USED TO IMPROVE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF FUTURE SEA LEVEL. ACCURATE AND RELIABLE KNOWLEDGE OF LOCAL SEA LEVEL CHANGE ON DECADAL TIMESCALES IS ESSENTIAL TO PLANNING ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION PROJECTS AS WELL AS GATHERING SUPPORT AMONG CITIZENS BUSINESSES AND COMMUNITY CONSTITUENTS TO FINANCE THE MEASURES. TO ACCOMPLISH OUR GOALS AND DEVELOP DECADAL SEA LEVEL PROJECTIONS WE WILL ADOPT A MULTIVARIATE APPROACH ATTEMPTING TO UNDERSTAND PAST PRESENT AND FUTURE SEA LEVEL BY INVESTIGATING LINKS BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT COMPONENTS OF THE EARTH CLIMATE SYSTEM. OUR METHOD IS NOVEL IN ITS NON-PARAMETRIC NATURE ESCHEWING COMMON STATISTICAL DEFINITIONS OF LARGE-SCALE INTERANNUAL TO DECADAL CLIMATE SIGNALS AND INSTEAD FOCUSING ON A PROCESS-BASED AND PHYSICAL UNDERSTANDING OF THE VARIABILITY. BY ESTABLISHING A PHYSICAL FOUNDATION FOR INTERANNUAL TO DECADAL SEA LEVEL CHANGE WE WILL IMPROVE OUR ABILITY TO PROJECT THE SEA LEVEL VARIABILITY MEASURED BY NASA SATELLITES INTO THE FUTURE. IN SUMMARY IN THIS PROJECT WE WILL UNDERTAKE AN EXTENSIVE STUDY ON A COMPONENT OF SEA LEVEL VARIABILITY (INTERANNUAL TO DECADAL INTERNAL VARIABILITY) THAT IS UNDERSTUDIED GIVEN ITS SIGNIFICANCE AND CONTRIBUTION TO RELATIVE SEA LEVEL RISE BOTH IN THE PRESENT AND IN THE FUTURE. WE WILL CREATE CONTEXT FOR THE SHORT SATELLITE RECORDS IMPROVING OUR ABILITY TO INTERPRET THE SEA LEVEL VARIABILITY OBSERVED IN RECENT YEARS WHILE DEMONSTRATING THE IMPORTANCE OF NASA SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS TO THE UNDERSTANDING OF SEA LEVEL BY STUDYING THE TIMESCALES AT WHICH THEY CAN MOST DIRECTLY BE APPLIED. FINALLY THROUGH THE PROPOSED WORK WE WILL CREATE REGIONAL RELATIVE SEA LEVEL PROJECTIONS ON TIMESCALES THAT ARE OF INTEREST TO A WIDE RANGE OF PLANNERS STAKEHOLDERS AND DECISION MAKERS.

$303,643FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA

Old Dominion University Research Foundation, Norfolk VA

Investigators

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