IF WE ARE EVER TO PREDICT THE MAGNETIC ORIENTATIONS AND HENCE SPACE-WEATHER IMPACT OF INTERPLANETARY CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS (ICMES) WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND HOW THEY EVOLVE FROM SUN TO EARTH. PROGRESS HINGES ON BEING ABLE TO ANSWER KEY QUESTIONS SUCH AS: HOW DOES INTERNAL MAGNETIC STRUCTURE INCLUDING MAGNETIC FLUX TOPOLOGY AND ORIENTATION AFFECT ICME EVOLUTION DURING PROPAGATION INCLUDING DISTORTION AND SHOCK FORMATION DEFLECTION AND ROTATION AND MAGNETIC RECONNECTION/EROSION? WHAT IS THE ROLE OF ICME/SOLAR-WIND INTERACTIONS IN THESE PROCESSES AND WHAT IS THEIR DEPENDENCY ON VARIATION IN PROPERTIES OF THE BACKGROUND SOLAR WIND SUCH AS MAGNETIC FIELD (STRENGTH AND STRUCTURE) DYNAMIC PRESSURE AND VELOCITY DISTRIBUTION? THESE QUESTIONS CENTRAL TO HELIOPHYSICS CANNOT BE ANSWERED BY MODELS OR OBSERVATIONS ALONE. OUR OVERARCHING GOAL IS TO DEVELOP A NEW METHOD FOR INCORPORATING SOLAR AND HELIOPHYSICS DATA INTO MODELS TO DESCRIBE AND INTERPRET ICME PROPAGATION AND EVOLUTION IN THE SOLAR WIND IN (NEAR)-REAL TIME. OUR OBJECTIVES ARE: TO COUPLE SOLAR-HELIOSPHERIC MODELS IN ORDER TO ANALYZE PHYSICAL PROCESSES DRIVING ICME EVOLUTION AND THE ROLE OF INTERNAL MAGNETIC STRUCTURE AND ICME/SOLAR-WIND INTERACTIONS TO COMPARE MODEL PREDICTIONS TO OBSERVATIONS IN A CLIMATOLOGICAL STUDY TO UNDERSTAND WHEN WHERE AND TO WHAT DEGREE THESE PHYSICAL PROCESSES OCCUR TO DEVELOP A DATA ASSIMILATION APPROACH THAT USES EVENT-SPECIFIC SOLAR AND HELIOSPHERIC DATA ALONG WITH CLIMATOLOGICAL CONSTRAINTS TO FORECAST ICME PROPERTIES AT 1 AU.
$840,204FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
University Corporation For Atmospheric Research