THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) IS THE MOST DOMINANT MODE OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL VARIABILITY THAT AFFECTS THE GLOBAL WEATHER PATTERNS INCLUDING HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER LIKE DROUGHT HEAT WAVES FLOODING AND TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. ONE OF THE MOST CHALLENGING ASPECTS IN PREDICTING THE MJO IS ITS PROPAGATION ACROSS THE MARITIME CONTINENT (MC) A REGION OF ISLANDS AND SEAS IN THE INDO-PACIFIC WARM POOL BETWEEN THE INDIAN AND PACIFIC OCEANS. THE MC IS OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING OF MJO PRECIPITATION AND EASTWARD PROPAGATION WITH 40% OF MJO EVENTS DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE WESTERN PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH THE REASON FOR THIS MC BARRIER EFFECT ON THE MJO IS UNCLEAR IT IS THOUGHT TO BE LINKED TO THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG DIURNAL CYCLE (DC) OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE ISLANDS AND ADJACENT SEAS. NEITHER THE MJO NOR THE DC OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE MC ARE FULLY UNDERSTOOD AND THEY ARE BOTH POORLY REPRESENTED IN CLIMATE AND NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS WHICH CAN UNDERMINE MODEL CAPABILITY OF FORECASTING GLOBAL INFLUENCES OF THE MJO.
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University Of Washington, Seattle WA