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THE ENERGY TO POWER SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS MUST ULTIMATELY ORIGINATE AT OR BELOW THE SOLAR PHOTOSPHERE AND IS LIKELY TO BUILD UP IN THE CORONAL MAGNETIC FIELD BEFORE RELEASE IN AN EVENT. IN ORDER TO FULLY UNDERSTAND FLARES AND CMES IT IS IMPORTANT TO BE ABLE TO ACCURATELY ESTIMATE THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY STORED IN THE CORONAL MAGNETIC FIELD. ONE OF THE MAJOR CHALLENGES IN ESTIMATING THE CORONAL ENERGY IS THAT THE RESULTS CANNOT EASILY BE TESTED ON DATA FOR WHICH THE ANSWER IS KNOWN. HOWEVER BY COMPARING THE FLUX INTO AND OUT OF THE CORONA WITH ESTIMATES OF THE ENERGY AT SPECIFIC TIMES OBTAINED FROM A VARIETY OF APPROACHES WE CAN CONSTRAIN THE RESULTS OF THE METHODS. FOR EXAMPLE IF THE FLUX INTO THE CORONA SUBSTANTIALLY EXCEEDS THE FLUX OUT OF THE CORONA OVER AN EXTENDED TIME INTERVAL THEN EITHER THE INPUT FLUX IS BEING OVERESTIMATED OR THE OUTPUT FLUX IS BEING UNDERESTIMATED. THE PROPOSED WORK ADDRESSES THE FIRST AND FOURTH HIGH LEVEL SCIENCE GOALS FROM THE HELIOPHYSICS DECADAL SURVEY NAMELY 1. "DETERMINE THE ORIGINS OF THE SUN'S ACTIVITY AND PREDICT THE VARIATIONS IN THE SPACE ENVIRONMENT" AND 4. "DISCOVER AND CHARACTERIZE FUNDAMENTAL PROCESSES THAT OCCUR BOTH WITHIN THE HELIOSPHERE AND THROUGHOUT THE UNIVERSE." THE PROPOSED INVESTIGATION WILL MODEL HOW THE ENERGY WHICH POWERS SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS IS STORED IN THE CORONA AND MAY LEAD TO NEW TOOLS FOR PREDICTING THE VARIATIONS IN THE X-RAY FLUX IN THE SPACE ENVIRONMENT. INSOFAR AS OTHER STARS ALSO HAVE MAGNETIZED CORONAE IT MAY CHARACTERIZE A PROCESS OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE UNIVERSE. TO TRACK THE FLOW OF FREE ENERGY THROUGH THE PHOTOSPHERE WE WILL USE DAVE4VM TO ESTIMATE THE PHOTOSPHERIC FLOWS AND FROM THESE COMPUTE THE POYNTING FLUX INTO THE CORONA. TO ESTIMATE THE ENERGY IN THE CORONA AT A GIVEN TIME WE WILL USE NONLINEAR FORCE-FREE FIELD (NLFFF) EXTRAPOLATIONS FROM INDIVIDUAL MAGNETOGRAMS. IN ADDITION WE WILL MODEL THE EVOLUTION OF THE CORONAL MAGNETIC FIELD USING A SEQUENCE OF MAGNETOGRAMS AS THE BOUNDARY CONDITION FOR AN MHD SIMULATION AND A TOPOLOGICAL METHOD; THE CORONAL ENERGY FROM THESE INDEPENDENT METHODS CAN BE EVALUATED AT THE SAME TIMES AS THE NLFFF EXTRAPOLATIONS. FINALLY WE WILL ESTIMATE THE ENERGY LOST FROM THE CORONA. THE RADIATIVE AND CONDUCTIVE LOSSES FOR EXAMPLE CAN BE ESTIMATED BASED ON DOING A DIFFERENTIAL EMISSION MEASURE ANALYSIS TO EXTRACT CORONAL TEMPERATURE AND DENSITY ESTIMATES AND USING THESE TO ESTIMATE RADIATIVE AND CONDUCTIVE LOSSES. FOR THIS INVESTIGATION WE WILL CONSIDER A SMALL SAMPLE OF ACTIVE REGIONS ON THE ORDER OF TEN AND FOCUS ON REGIONS WHICH ARE NOT THE LARGEST AND MOST COMPLICATED TO MAXIMIZE THE CHANCES OF SUCCESSFULLY MODELING THEM. WE WILL FOLLOW EACH REGION FOR AT LEAST A WEEK TRACKING THE FLUX OF ENERGY INTO THE CORONA AND THE ENERGY RELEASED FROM THE CORONA AS WELL AS ESTIMATING THE ENERGY CONTENT OF THE CORONAL MAGNETIC FIELD AT SPECIFIC TIMES. OUR INVESTIGATION WILL PRIMARILY UTILIZE DATA FROM NASA'S SOLAR DYNAMICS OBSERVATORY BOTH SEQUENCES OF MAGNETOGRAMS FROM THE HELIOSEISMIC AND MAGNETIC IMAGER (HMI) AND CORONAL IMAGES FROM THE ATMOSPHERIC IMAGING ASSEMBLY (AIA). THESE WILL BE SUPPLEMENTED BY MAGNETOGRAMS FROM THE SOLAR OPTICAL TELESCOPE (SOT) ON THE JOINT JAXA/NASA HINODE MISSION AND BY CORONAL IMAGES FROM HINODE'S X-RAY TELESCOPE (XRT).

$508,407FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA

Northwest Research Associates, Inc., Bellevue WA

Investigators

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