A GEO VISION FOR ENERGY (GEO-VENER) GOAL INCLUDES THE AVAILABILITY AND LONG-TERM ACQUISITION OF DATA FROM SATELLITE AND IN-SITU INSTRUMENTS AND MODELS TO MAKE POSSIBLE THE EFFECTIVE DEPLOYMENT OPERATION AND MAINTENANCE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS AND THEIR INTEGRATION IN THE GRID . THE CHALLENGE IN RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS IS MANAGING THE HIGH SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL VARIABILITY OF RENEWABLE RESOURCES. THE ADVERSE EFFECTS OF THIS HIGH VARIABILITY IN ENERGY PRODUCTION CAN BE MITIGATED VIA ACCURATE PREDICTIONS OF THE RENEWABLE RESOURCES (E.G. SOLAR IRRADIANCE). SHORT TERM PREDICTIONS OF UP TO A FEW HOURS (I.E. NOWCASTING) OF SOLAR IRRADIANCE ARE ALREADY BEING USED TO MANAGE RENEWABLE SYSTEMS. NOWCASTING SYSTEMS HELP OPERATORS ENSURE GRID STABILITY AND POWER PLANT PERFORMANCE. STANDARD NOWCASTING METHODOLOGIES INCLUDE THE USE OF RETRIEVALS FROM EARTH OBSERVING SATELLITES TO DETECT AND ADVANCE THE CLOUDS. THIS METHODOLOGY FACES LIMITATIONS WHEN CLOUDS GROW OR DECAY OR THEY ARE ANCHORED TO VARIOUS TERRAIN FEATURES. FULL CLOUD PROCESSES ARE BETTER REPRESENTED IN NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION (NWP) MODELS. HOWEVER NOWCASTING SYSTEMS BASED ON NWP MODELS DO NOT ALWAYS RETAIN ACCURATE SATELLITE-BASED CLOUD INITIALIZATION. WE THEREFORE PROPOSE TO BLEND A SATELLITE-BASED INITIALIZATION SYSTEM (MADCAST) WITH A NWP-BASED NOWCASTING APPROACH (WRF-SOLAR) TO CREATE AN IMPROVED END-TO-END SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECAST SYSTEM CALLED MAD-WRF. THE PROPOSED WORK WILL PROGRESS ALONG THE FOLLOWING STEPS. FIRST WE WILL OPTIMIZE THE CLOUD ANALYSIS. WE WILL IMPROVE THE ESTIMATIONS OF CLOUD TOPS USING SATELLITE RETRIEVALS AND QUANTIFY THE PERFORMANCE OF DIFFERENT COMBINATIONS OF SATELLITE RETRIEVALS (MOSTLY FROM NASA SATELLITES) TO DETERMINE THE PRODUCTS THAT WILL INITIALIZE MAD-WRF. THEN WE WILL BLEND WRF-SOLAR AND MADCAST. THIS REQUIRES FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS OF MADCAST TO COUPLE THE SIMULATED CLOUDS TO THE SHORTWAVE RADIATION PARAMETERIZATION. IN ADDITION WE WILL INITIALIZE THE CLOUDS IN WRF-SOLAR USING A TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE TO FACILITATE ITS BLENDING WITH MADCAST. THE BLENDING WILL USE THE INFORMATION FROM THIS TIME-LAGGED ENSEMBLE TO FIND TEMPERATURE WATER VAPOR AND HYDROMETEORS THAT ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE MADCAST CLOUDS. THEN THE WRF-SOLAR STATE WILL BE NUDGED TOWARD THOSE VARIABLES AS THE WRF-SOLAR IS INTEGRATED IN TIME. THE NUDGING MAKES THE WRF-SOLAR MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE CLOUD FRACTION FROM MADCAST WHILE RETAINING THE SUPERIOR MADCAST CLOUD FRACTIONS OVER SHORT LEAD TIMES. TO QUANTIFY THE IMPROVEMENTS IN SOLAR IRRADIANCE MAD-WRF AS WELL AS WRF-SOLAR AND MADCAST WILL BE RUN IN A FORECAST MODE DURING THE LAST YEAR OF THE PROJECT TO DEMONSTRATE THE BENEFITS OF THE NEW SYSTEM TO HELP ACHIEVE GEOVENER GOALS.
$583,126FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
University Corporation For Atmospheric Research