WE PROPOSE TO PROVIDE SATELLITE PRODUCTS EMISSIONS ESTIMATES AND CHEMICAL AND TRACER FORECASTS ACROSS MULTIPLE SCALES TO GUIDE FLIGHT PLANNING DURING THE FIRECHEM AIRCRAFT EXPERIMENT SIMILAR TO OUR ROLE IN PAST NASA AIRCRAFT CAMPAIGNS. OUR TEAM PRODUCES THE MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE RETRIEVALS OF CO FROM MOPITT AND HAS EXPERTISE IN SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS OF CHEMICAL COMPOSITION RELEVANT TO BIOMASS BURNING (O3 NO2 CH4 CO2 NH3 AOD ETC.) AS WELL AS FIRE DETECTIONS FROM A VARIETY OF INSTRUMENTS (TES IASI CRIS MODIS). THE FIRE INVENTORY OF NCAR (FINN) PRODUCED BY OUR GROUP WILL BE RUN IN NEAR-REAL-TIME WITH THE LATEST AVAILABLE SATELLITE DETECTIONS OF FIRE DETECTIONS FROM MODIS GOES-R AND VIIRS. RESULTING EMISSIONS WILL BE USED IN A VARIETY OF MODELS TO FORECAST PLUMES FROM WILDFIRES PRESCRIBED FIRES AND AGRICULTURAL BURNING. WE WILL RUN THE REGIONAL WEATHER RESEARCH AND FORECASTING (WRF) MODEL WITH ARTIFICIAL TRACERS INITIALIZED FROM THE NEAR REAL TIME (NRT) FIRE EMISSIONS SIMILAR TO FORECASTS USED SUCCESSFULLY DURING FRAPP /DISCOVER-AQ AND KORUS-AQ. WRF-CMAQ WILL BE RUN FOR THE SAME U.S. DOMAIN AND RESOLUTION WITH THE ASSIMILATION OF MODIS AOD PROVIDING A FULL CHEMICAL FORECAST OF AEROSOLS OZONE AND THEIR PRECURSORS. CAM-CHEM/DART WITH THE ASSIMILATION OF MOPITT CO WILL BE RUN FOR THE GLOBE THUS CAPTURING FIRES IN CANADA ALASKA AND FARTHER AWAY THAT MIGHT INFLUENCE THE STUDY REGION AS WELL AS PROVIDING A CHEMICAL FORECAST OF CO THAT HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH OBSERVATIONS AND LATERAL BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR THE REGIONAL MODELS. A TRAJECTORY MODEL FLEXPART WILL ALSO BE RUN INITIALIZED BY FIRE LOCATIONS TO PROVIDE A LAGRANGIAN VIEW OF AIR PARCELS ORIGINATING FROM FIRES AND INFLUENCED BY THE EMISSIONS. WE WILL PROVIDE ANALYSIS OF NRT AND FORECAST PRODUCTS AT DAILY FLIGHT PLANNING MEETINGS. THE FIRST YEAR OF THE PROJECT WILL BE USED TO DEVELOP SETUP AND REFINE THE FORECAST PRODUCTS. WE WILL BE ABLE TO TEST THEIR PERFORMANCE DURING SUMMER 2018 BY PARTICIPATING INFORMALLY IN THE NSF WE-CAN EXPERIMENT. DURING THE SECOND YEAR THE PRODUCTS AND MODELING SETUPS WILL BE FINALIZED AND THE FORECASTING SYSTEMS WILL BE IMPLEMENTED TO RUN AUTOMATICALLY EACH DAY WITH FORECAST GRAPHICS PROVIDED VIA A WEBSITE. DURING THE CAMPAIGN THE TEAM WILL PARTICIPATE IN DAILY FLIGHT PLANNING MEETINGS PRESENTING FORECASTS AND SUGGESTING FLIGHT OPPORTUNITIES. THE THIRD YEAR WILL BE USED TO ANALYZE THE OBSERVATIONS IN CONJUNCTION WITH OUR CHEMICAL BOX TRAJECTORY REGIONAL AND GLOBAL MODELS TO ADDRESS THE FIRECHEM SCIENCE QUESTIONS. OUR GROUP WILL FOCUS ON THE IMPROVEMENT OF FIRE EMISSIONS INVENTORIES INCLUDING EMISSIONS STRENGTHS AND CHEMICAL SPECIATION AND INJECTION HEIGHT. WE WILL ALSO STUDY THE CHEMICAL EVOLUTION OF FIRE PLUMES AND QUANTIFY THEIR IMPACT ON LOCAL REGIONAL AND DOWNSTREAM AIR QUALITY.
$524,976FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
University Corporation For Atmospheric Research