FLOODING DUE TO STORM SURGE OFTEN POSES THE GREATEST THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY DURING A HURRICANE. THE PRIMARY GENERATING FORCE BEHIND SURGE IS THE NEAR-SURFACE WIND (ALONG WITH SECONDARY CONTRIBUTIONS FROM PRESSURE) WHICH CAN ACT TO PUSH WATER TOWARDS THE SHORE. AS SURGE APPROACHES COASTAL AREAS THE EXTENT AND SEVERITY OF FLOODING DEPENDS CRITICALLY ON STORM MAXIMUM WINDS AND STORM RADIUS AS WELL AS ON A NUMBER OF FACTORS INCLUDING THE ANGLE OF APPROACH CHARACTERISTICS OF THE CONTINENTAL SHELF AND THE GEOMETRY AND PROPERTIES OF COASTAL FEATURES AND FLOOD-PROTECTION SYSTEMS. OBTAINING ACCURATE FORECASTS OF STORM SURGE FROM HYDRODYNAMIC MODELS SUCH AS THE ADVANCED CIRCULATION (ADCIRC) MODEL THEREFORE REQUIRES THE INPUT OF ACCURATE METEOROLOGICAL FORCING. TO A LARGE EXTENT THE ACCURACY OF STATE-OF-THE-ART STORM SURGE MODELS IS LIMITED BY THE ACCURACY OF THE METEOROLOGICAL FORCING. WHILE FORECASTED METEOROLOGICAL FIELDS COULD BE OBTAINED FROM LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC MODELS OPERATIONAL STORM SURGE MODELS GENERALLY MAKE USE OF SIMPLER PARAMETRIC WIND MODELS THAT GENERATE WIND (AND PRESSURE) FIELDS BASED ON ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PARAMETERS (E.G. THE STORM TRACK RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS ETC.). THE UNIQUE SPACE AND TIME COVERAGE OF WIND SPEED MEASUREMENTS PROVIDED BY THE CYGNSS CONSTELLATION OFFERS POTENTIAL OPPORTUNITIES TO IMPROVE THE ESTIMATION OF STORM PARAMETERS AND THEREBY TO IMPROVE STORM SURGE PREDICTIONS. ALTHOUGH CYGNSS MEASUREMENTS OCCUR ONLY IN "TRACKS" THAT MAY NOT OBSERVE THE COMPLETE EXTENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE THE COMBINATION OF MULTIPLE CYGNSS MEASUREMENTS CAN ENABLE THE ESTIMATION OF PARAMETERS REPRESENTING AN ENTIRE STORM. THIS PROCESS HAS BEEN DEMONSTRATED INITIALLY WITH STANDARD WIND SPEED ESTIMATES OBTAINED FROM THE CYGNSS "COMPRESSED DDM" MEASUREMENT; THE AVAILABILITY OF CYGNSS "RAW IF" MODE OBSERVATIONS FOR STORMS IN 2017 ALSO MOTIVATES EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL ADVANTAGES OF THE EXTENDED SPATIAL COVERAGE AVAILABLE FROM SUCH DATA. THE PROPOSED PROJECT WILL DEVELOP AND VALIDATE NEW STORM PARAMETER ESTIMATION APPROACHES USING CYGNSS DATA USING BOTH STANDARD AS WELL AS RAW-IF MODE MEASUREMENTS. THE PARAMETER ESTIMATION METHODS WILL BE DEVELOPED INITIALLY USING SIMULATED CYGNSS OBSERVATIONS AND THEN APPLIED TO 2017 SEASON STORMS USING CYGNSS MEASUREMENTS. THE PARAMETER ESTIMATES SO OBTAINED WILL ALSO BE APPLIED IN THE ADCIRC MODEL TO INVESTIGATE THEIR IMPACT ON STORM SURGE PREDICTIONS. SPECIFICALLY HINDCAST SIMULATIONS USING ADCIRC WILL BE PERFORMED AND QUANTITATIVELY ASSESSED UNDER SCENARIOS WITH AND WITHOUT THE INCLUSION OF CYGNSS DATA. THE PROJECT ULTIMATELY WILL ALSO APPLY THE METHODS DEVELOPED TO STORM SURGE HINDCASTS AND FORECASTS WITH CONCURRENT CYGNSS DATA IN ORDER TO DEMONSTRATE THE UTILITY OF CURRENT AND FUTURE GNSS-R SYSTEMS FOR STORM SURGE PREDICTION.
$445,329FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
Ohio State University, The, Columbus OH