THE ECONOMIC IMPACT FROM UNDER-FORECASTED WEATHER EVENTS IS NOT ONLY THE RESULT OF THE EVENT ITSELF BUT IS ALSO DRIVEN BY OUR LACK OF PREPAREDNESS. IT IS ESTIMATED THAT LAPSES IN PREPAREDNESS HAVE COST THE UNITED STATES OVER A TRILLION DOLLARS IN ECONOMIC LOSSES IN THE LAST 30 YEARS. TO IMPROVE OUR PREPAREDNESS EMERGENCY MANAGERS NEED MORE ACCURATE SUBSEASONAL FORECASTS (10 DAYS AND BEYOND). THIS IS A MULTI-FACETED PROBLEM THAT CAN BE REDUCED TO SEVERAL BASIC COMPONENTS: THE OBSERVATIONS OUR UNDERSTANDING OF COUPLED ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES AN ACCURATE INITIAL ATMOSPHERIC STATE AND THE FORECAST MODEL. THE OBSERVATIONS: A RECOGNIZED DEFICIENCY IN THE GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM IS AN ACCURATE DEPICTION OF THE 3D STRUCTURE OF THE GLOBAL WIND FIELD. KNOWLEDGE OF THE WIND FIELD IS ESSENTIAL TO OUR UNDERSTANDING OF GENERAL CIRCULATION AND TO ACCURATELY DEFINE THE ATMOSPHERIC STATE FOR INITIALIZATION OF NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODELS. HOWEVER THE 3D STRUCTURE OF THE GLOBAL WIND FIELD IS GENERALLY UNOBSERVED. IN TWO PREVIOUS NASA ROSES AWARDS UNDER THE THE SCIENCE OF TERRA AND AQUA (NNX11AE97G NNX14AI77G) WE DEVELOPED A 3D WINDS PRODUCT BY TRACKING MOISTURE FEATURES (TROPOSPHERE) AND OZONE GRADIENTS (STRATOSPHERE) FROM AIRS RETRIEVED VERTICAL PROFILES OF TEMPERATURE HUMIDITY AND OZONE. EVALUATION OF THE IMPACT OF THESE OBSERVATIONS IN THE NASA GMAO GEOS-5 MODEL WERE ENCOURAGING. RECENTLY WE HAVE CONDUCTED A DETAILED STUDY OF THE SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN FEATURE TRACKED WINDS. WE PROPOSE TO BUILD ON OUR PREVIOUS RESEARCH TO IMPROVE THE 3D WINDS PRODUCT IN TWO WAYS. (1) WE WILL ADAPT THE AIRS FEATURE TRACKING ALGORITHM FOR USE WITH CRIS ON SUOMI NPP AND JPSS-1 AND IASI ON THE METOP PLATFORMS WHICH WILL EXTEND THE SPATIAL COVERAGE FURTHER EQUATORWARD AND INCREASE THE NUMBER OF OBSERVATIONS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE AND STRATOSPHERE. (2) WE WILL USE MACHINE LEARNING TECHNIQUES DEVELOPED AT JPL TO PRODUCE ROBUST ESTIMATES OF THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE 3D WIND RETRIEVALS. THE CURRENT 3D WINDS PRODUCT IS GENERATED IN NEAR REAL-TIME FOR FORECAST APPLICATIONS SO THIS PROPOSAL IS IN RESPONSE TO SEC. 2.4 REAL OR NEAR REAL-TIME DATA ALGORITHMS. THE SCIENCE: THE PROPOSED 3D WINDS PRODUCT DESCRIBED ABOVE GIVE MORE INSIGHT INTO HIGH-LATITUDE DYNAMICAL SYSTEMS AND COUPLED STRATOSPHERIC/TROPOSPHERIC PROCESSES. THESE INCLUDE THE STRATOSPHERIC POLAR VORTEX EFFECT ON THE POSITION OF THE TROPOSPHERIC EXTRATROPICAL JET (AND VICE VERSA); MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ENERGY EXCHANGE BETWEEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES; AND THE ROLE OF ROSSBY WAVE BREAKING IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE JET. ALL OF THESE HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON THE SURFACE WEATHER AND ARE CRITICAL TO IMPROVING THE ACCURACY OF EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS. THIS EFFORT WILL IMPROVE OUR KNOWLEDGE OF STRATOSPHERE/TROPOSPHERE COUPLING WHEN EVALUATED IN TERMS OF IMPROVEMENT IN SUBSEASONAL GLOBAL FORECASTS USING THE GMAO GEOS-5 MODEL.
$355,311FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
University Of Wisconsin System, Madison WI