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THE CLOUD-RADIATION FEEDBACK IS BELIEVED TO BE ONE OF THE CRITICAL REASONS FOR THE AMPLIFICATION OF ARCTIC WARMING AMONG ALL CLIMATE COMPONENTS. AS THE ACCELERATED ARCTIC SEA ICE DECLINE HAS BEEN PROVEN BY SATELLITE RETRIEVALS IN PAST FEW DECADES THIS STUDY WILL INVESTIGATE THE ROLE OF SPRINGTIME (MARCH-JUNE) CLOUD-RADIATION FEEDBACK IN MODULATING SEASONAL-TO-INTER-ANNUAL SCALE ARCTIC SEA ICE CHANGE UTILIZING NASA SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS MERRA-2 DATASETS AND NCAR COMMUNITY EARTH SYSTEM MODEL (CESM) SIMULATIONS. THIS PROPOSED RESEARCH IS IN RESPONSE TO THE ANNOUNCEMENT OF NASA NESSF2018 EARTH SCIENCES PROGRAM TO ADDRESS ONE OF THE LONG-TERM GOALS "IMPROVE THE ABILITY TO PREDICT CLIMATE CHANGES BY BETTER UNDERSTANDING THE ROLES AND INTERACTIONS OF THE OCEAN ATMOSPHERE LAND AND ICE IN THE CLIMATE SYSTEM (CLIMATE VARIABILITY AND CHANGE)". TO ACHIEVE OUR GOAL THE FIRST STEP IS TO IDENTIFY THE DYNAMICAL TRIGGERS OF INITIAL SEA ICE MELTING IN THE ARCTIC AND THEN INVESTIGATE THE SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS OF CLOUD AND RADIATION ACCOMPANYING THE MELT OF ARCTIC SEA ICE IN SPRING AND SUMMER. THE ULTIMATE GOAL IS TO PROPOSE AND FULLY TEST A CLOUDRADIATION FEEDBACK MECHANISM THAT WORKS ACROSS INTER-ANNUAL TIMESCALES THROUGH AN INTEGRATIVE ANALYSIS OF SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS REANALYSIS AND MODEL SIMULATIONS. BASED ON PREVIOUS FINDINGS WE PROPOSE THE FOLLOWING HYPOTHESES REGARDING A MECHANISM OF THE ARCTIC CLOUD-RADIATION-SEA ICE FEEDBACK: INCREASING SPRINGTIME CLOUD AND NET SURFACE RADIATION TENDS TO ENHANCE SEPTEMBER SEA ICE RETREAT LEAVING MORE OPEN SEAS THEREFORE HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE CONTENT AND MORE CLOUDS IN THE FOLLOWING SPRING. THIS PROCESS WILL EFFECTIVELY CREATE A POSITIVE FEEDBACK LOOP THAT POTENTIALLY ACCELERATES SEA ICE DECLINE ACROSS INTER-ANNUAL TIME SCALES WHICH WILL BE TESTED THROUGH ONLINE SUPPRESSION EXPERIMENTS USING NCAR CESM. THE DEEP UNDERSTANDING OF CLOUD-RADIATION-SEA ICE FEEDBACK WILL NOT ONLY HELP US BETTER PREDICT THE GLOBAL STATE OF CLIMATE BUT WILL ALSO HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON LOCAL COMMUNITIES IN THE ARCTIC REGIONS INCLUDING TOURISM BUSINESSES MARINE TRANSPORT OPERATIONS AND RESOURCE EXTRACTION OPERATIONS.

$90,000FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA

University Of Arizona, Tucson AZ

Investigators

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