FORECASTING VOLCANIC UNREST FOR VULNERABLE POPULATIONS REQUIRES UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMICS OF THE UNDERLYING MAGMA RESERVOIRS BY LINKING VOLCANIC UNREST OBSERVATIONS TO ERUPTION POTENTIAL. THE APPLICATION OF A MODEL-DATA FUSION FRAMEWORK BASED ON THE ENSEMBLE KALMAN FILTER (ENKF) HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE A POWERFUL METHOD FOR PROVIDING UPDATES OF THE VOLCANIC STORAGE MODELS THROUGH TIME (GREGG AND PETTIJOHN 2016; ZHAN AND GREGG 2017; ZHAN ET AL. 2017). HOWEVER THIS APPROACH IS STILL IN ITS INITIAL STAGES OF DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH A LARGE NUMBER OF SOPHISTICATED AND COMPUTATIONALLY EXPENSIVE NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED TO STUDY THE GEODYNAMICAL EVOLUTION OF MAGMA RESERVOIRS THE LACK OF A SUPERCOMPUTER WORKFLOW LIMITS OUR ABILITY TO IMPLEMENT A MONTE CARLO DATA ASSIMILATION APPROACH. TO TAKE FULL ADVANTAGE OF OBSERVATIONAL DATA (E.G. INSAR) AND TO TEST MORE SOPHISTICATED FINITE ELEMENT MODELS (FEMS) I PROPOSE (1) TO DEVELOP NEW HIGH-PERFORMANCE COMPUTING (HPC) TECHNIQUES TO CONDUCT THE ENKF DATA ASSIMILATION BY DISTRIBUTING THE ENSEMBLE FEMS ONTO HUNDREDS OR THOUSANDS OF COMPUTER PROCESSORS TO RUN SIMULTANEOUSLY. (2) BASED ON THE HPC-ENKF WORKFLOW I WILL ESTABLISH A 3D MAGMA RESERVOIR MODEL TO INVESTIGATE UNREST OF THE ATKA VOLCANIC CENTER AND THE 2006 ERUPTION OF THE KOROVIN VOLCANO. ATKA IS AN IDEAL TARGET TO TEST HPC-ENKF BECAUSE OF EXTENSIVE INSAR AND SEISMIC DATA AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXCELLENT COVERAGE OF THE 2006 ERUPTION AND SUBSEQUENT ACTIVITY (LU AND DZURISIN 2014). ADDITIONALLY ~50 000 PASSENGERS FLY OVER THE ALEUTIAN ARC EACH DAY AND ACTIVE VOLCANOES IN THIS REGION SUCH AS THE ATKA VOLCANIC CENTER POSE A SIGNIFICANT AVIATION RISK (PERSONAL COMM. M. COOMBS AVO). I WILL TEST WHETHER A CENTRAL MAGMA PLUMPING MODEL CAN TRIGGER THE 2006 KOROVIN ERUPTION WITHOUT DEVIATING FROM THE OBSERVED DEFORMATION PATTERN (FROM INSAR DATA) OR GENERATING EARTHQUAKE SWARMS ALONG THE PATHWAY (LU AND DZURISIN 2014). THE PROPOSED STUDY WILL IMPROVE OUR UNDERSTANDING OF VOLCANO HAZARDS FORECASTING IN TWO WAYS. (1) THE HPC-ENKF CAPABILITY WILL SIGNIFICANTLY FACILITATE TESTING THE EFFECTS OF TOPOGRAPHY CHAMBER GEOMETRY CRUSTAL HETEROGENEITY THERMAL EFFECTS AND MAGMAROCK INTERACTION ON THE SURFACE DEFORMATION REVEALED BY THE GEODETIC (INSAR AND GPS) AND GEOPHYSICAL DATA. THESE COMPLEXITIES MAY PLAY IMPORTANT ROLES IN VOLCANIC UNRESTS AND TRIGGERING ERUPTIONS. (2) THE SATELLITE-OBSERVABLE PRECURSORY INDICATORS PRIOR TO THE 2006 ERUPTION OF THE KOROVIN VOLCANO MAY REVEAL THE MECHANISM OF A PARTICULAR KIND OF MAGMA FEEDING SYSTEM WHICH WILL INSPIRE RESEARCH ON OTHER CALDERA SYSTEMS IN ALASKA SUCH AS OKMOK AND WESTDAHL WHOSE INFLATING MAGMA RESERVOIRS ARE ALSO OFFSET AWAY FROM THEIR ERUPTION VENTS.
$90,000FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA
University Of Illinois