ONE OF THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTIES ON AIR QUALITY FORECASTS CORRESPONDS TO SMOKE PREDICTIONS FROM BIOMASS BURNING EMISSIONS. THE FIRE IMPACTS ON REGIONAL TO GLOBAL SCALES: EMISSIONS CHEMISTRY TRANSPORT AND MODELS (FIRECHEM) CAMPAIGN REPRESENTS A UNIQUE OPPORTUNITY TO CONSOLIDATE MULTIPLE FORECAST SYSTEMS TO ASSESS THEIR PERFORMANCE AND FIND WAYS TO REDUCE UNCERTAINTIES. AT THE SAME TIME FLIGHT-PLANNING ACTIVITIES FOR FIRECHEM WOULD GREATLY BENEFIT BY HAVING ALL THESE FORECASTS READILY AVAILABLE AND DISPLAYED IN A STANDARDIZED WAY OVER THE REGIONS OF INTEREST. THIS WOULD ALSO HELP WITH THE COORDINATION WITH THE PARTNER FIELD CAMPAIGNS OCCURRING SIMULTANEOUSLY. WE PROPOSE AN EFFORT TO COORDINATE MULTIPLE FORECAST SYSTEMS THAT WILL BE AVAILABLE DURING FIRE-CHEM (10 OPERATIONAL/FUNDED 4 PENDING FUNDING) TO SUPPORT FLIGHT PLANNING AND PERFORM POST-CAMPAIGN ANALYSIS. WITH THIS EFFORT WE EXPECT TO FACILITATE THE SAMPLING REQUIRED BY THE FIRECHEM OBJECTIVES HELP ANSWERING FIRECHEM SCIENCE QUESTIONS AND SUPPORT COORDINATION WITH PARTNER CAMPAIGNS. THE FOLLOWING TASKS WILL BE PERFORMED: 1. NEAR-REAL-TIME AND POST-CAMPAIGN EVALUATION OF THE FORECASTS. WE PLAN TO EVALUATE THE PREDICTIONS FROM THE FORECAST SYSTEMS IN AN AUTOMATED WAY USING SATELLITE AND GROUND-BASED DATA THAT ARE AVAILABLE IN NEAR-REAL-TIME. THESE PERFORMANCE METRICS WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE FORECASTING BRIEFINGS AND WILL HELP DETERMINE THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECASTS WHEN PLANNING THE FLIGHTS. WE WILL THEN INCORPORATE CAMPAIGN DATA TO PERFORM A MORE THOROUGH ASSESSMENT WHERE LOCAL AND INTERNATIONAL AIR QUALITY FORECAST MODELS ALONG WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE SMOKE EMISSIONS WILL BE EVALUATED TO HELP CONSTRAIN NORTH AMERICAN FIRE EMISSIONS AND ASSESS PROCESS REPRESENTATION (E.G. PLUME INJECTION DIURNAL CYCLE OF EMISSIONS SMOKE AGING) WITHIN THE FORECASTS. THE FORECASTS USE SATELLITE DATA AS INPUT AT DIFFERENT LEVELS (E.G. COMPUTING EMISSIONS ASSIMILATION) THUS ASSESSING THEIR PERFORMANCE WILL PROVIDE INSIGHTS INTO THE IMPORTANCE OF THE SATELLITE DATA FOR NORTH AMERICAN FIRE PREDICTION. 2. ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS. COMBINING FORECASTS FROM MULTIPLE SYSTEMS IN AN OPTIMAL WAY GENERALLY PROVIDES BETTER PREDICTIONS THAN EACH INDIVIDUAL MEMBER AND IT ALLOWS QUANTIFICATION OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THUS WE PROPOSE TO PROVIDE AN ENSEMBLE PREDICTION USING THE FORECAST SYSTEMS. WE WILL PROVIDE STATISTICAL PRODUCTS SUCH AS THE ENSEMBLE MEDIAN MEAN SPREAD AND PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING CONCENTRATION THRESHOLDS. ALSO THE INDIVIDUAL AND ENSEMBLE FORECASTS WILL BE IMPROVED BY APPLYING BIAS CORRECTION TECHNIQUES BASED ON GEOSTATIONARY AOD RETRIEVALS. 3. STANDARDIZATION OF THE FORECAST SYSTEMS. FORECASTING GROUPS DURING FIELD CAMPAIGNS TYPICALLY PLOT THEIR RESULTS IN DIFFERENT COLOR SCALES AND DIFFERENT PROJECTIONS AND POST THEM ON DIFFERENT WEBSITES MAKING THE INTERPRETATION OF THE FORECASTS A DIFFICULT AND TIME CONSUMING TASK. WE PROPOSE TO GATHER MODEL OUTPUTS OF KEY PARAMETERS FROM MULTIPLE FORECASTS AND DISPLAY THEM UNDER THE SAME FRAMEWORK TO FACILITATE THE INTER-COMPARISON IN DAILY FORECASTING BRIEFINGS. THIS WILL HELP THE FORECASTER TO FOCUS ON THE ANALYSIS OF THE FORECASTS RATHER THAN ON THE COMPILATION OF THE DATA. IN SHORT DURING Y1 OF THE PROJECT WE WILL PERFORM A DRY-RUN OF THESE ACTIVITIES WITH THE AVAILABLE FORECAST SYSTEMS IN Y2 ALONG WITH THE TASKS MENTIONED ABOVE WE WILL BE PRESENT IN THE FIELD TO INTERPRET THE FORECASTS AND PARTICIPATE IN FLIGHT PLANNING AND IN Y3 WE WILL SUMMARIZE THE FORECAST PERFORMANCE IN RESEARCH PAPERS. WE HAVE ASSEMBLED A TEAM OF SCIENTISTS REPRESENTING MULTIPLE CHEMICAL FORECAST SYSTEMS FROM NASA NOAA NCAR NRL ECCC ECMWF AND US UNIVERSITIES. THE PI HAS PREVIOUS COLLABORATION WITH SEVERAL OF THESE GROUPS AND HAS PARTICIPATED IN MULTIPLE NASA FIELD CAMPAIGNS (SEAC4RS KORUS-AQ ORACLES) IN BOTH FORECASTING AND FLIGHT PLANNING. THE TEAM ALSO INCLUDES EXPERTS ON ENSEMBLE PREDICTION AND WEB INTERFACES.