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ACCURATE DESCRIPTION OF THE SOLAR WIND AND INTERPLANETARY MAGNETIC FIELD ENVIRONMENT IS KEY TO BOTH SCIENTIFIC UNDERSTANDING OF DYNAMIC PLASMA PROCESSES OCCURRING THROUGHOUT THE INNER HELIOSPHERE AND TO SPACE WEATHER OPERATIONS. MOST CURRENT KNOWLEDGE OF THE STATE OF THE INNER HELIOSPHERE IS DERIVED FROM TIME-STATIONARY SIMULATIONS DRIVEN BY SYNOPTIC PHOTOSPHERIC MAGNETOGRAMS THAT TAKE A FULL SOLAR ROTATION ( 27 DAYS) TO ACCUMULATE. MEANWHILE EVEN DURING QUIET HELIOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THE SUN IS NEVER TRULY IN STEADY STATE AND THUS BOTH OUR UNDERSTANDING AND CHARACTER- IZATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT AT EARTH OTHER PLANETS AND MAN-MADE SPACECRAFT THROUGHOUT THE SOLAR SYSTEM IS HAMPERED BY THIS LIMITATION OF STATIONARITY. THE PRIMARY GOAL OF THIS PROJECT TO IMPLEMENT AND VALIDATE A ROBUST TIME-DEPENDENT MODEL OF THE INNER HELIOSPHERE DRIVEN BY DATA-ASSIMILATIVE PHOTOSPHERIC MAPS WITH AUTOMATED DOWN SELECTION OF THE BEST REALIZATIONS FROM THE ENSEMBLE. TO GO BEYOND THE STEADY-STATE PHOTOSPHERIC MAPS ADAPT MODEL WAS DEVELOPED THAT ASSIMILATES PHYSICS-BASED PREDICTIONS AND/OR OBSERVATIONS OF THE FAR SIDE OF THE SUN AND PRODUCES INSTANTANEOUS SNAPSHOTS OF THE GLOBAL PHOTOSPHERIC MAGNETIC FIELD DISTRIBUTION AT CADENCES OF 2-H OR LONGER. THESE TIME-EVOLVING MAPS CAN BE USED TO DRIVE MODELS OF THE SOLAR CORONA SUCH AS THE WSA CORONAL MODEL. THE LATTER IN TURN CAN BE USED TO DRIVE A TIME-DEPENDENT MODEL OF THE INNER HELIOSPHERE. THIS IS THE APPROACH THE PROPOSING TEAM TOOK IN RECENT WORK WHERE WE DEVELOPED THE FRAMEWORK FOR DRIVING OUR MHD MODEL OF THE INNER HELIOSPHERE WITH THESE TIME-DEPENDENT INPUTS AND SHOWED THAT IT HAS POTENTIAL TO DRAMATICALLY IMPROVE PREDICTIONS OF THE BACKGROUND SOLAR WIND AT THE EARTH S ORBIT. IN THIS PROJECT WE PROPOSE TO BUILD UPON THIS SUCCESSFUL PRELIMINARY WORK AND DEVELOP A HIGH PERFORMANCE ROBUST AND R2O-READY SIMULATION PIPELINE STARTING WITH TIME-EVOLVING ADAPT PHOTOSPHERIC MAPS AND ENDING WITH PREDICTIONS OF KEY PARAMETERS AT EARTH. TO THIS END WE WILL UNDERTAKE THE FOLLOWING TASKS: 1) DEVELOP AN INTERFACE FOR TIME-DEPENDENT ADAPT-WSA INPUTS INTO OUR MHD MODEL; 2) DEVELOP METRICS FOR DOWN SELECTION FROM THE ENSEMBLE OF RUNS; 3) PERFORM 4--6 YEARS WORTH OF WSA SIMULATIONS DRIVEN BY HIGHCADENCE (UP TO 2-H) ADAPT MAPS (THIS WILL REQUIRE RUNNING MANY WSA INSTANCES IN PARALLEL) AND DEVELOP AUTOMATIC TOOLS FOR SELECTION OF BEST REPRESENTATIONS BASED ON THE METRICS; 4) RUN CORRESPONDING SOLAR WIND MHD SIMULATIONS FOR THE SAME PERIOD OF TIME DRIVEN BY BEST REPRESENTATIONS; 5) MAKE RESULTS OF OUR SIMULATIONS AVAILABLE TO THE COMMUNITY VIA AN INTERACTIVE WEB INTERFACE. IN THIS PROJECT WE WILL USE A NEWLY DEVELOPED MHD MODEL GAMERA WHICH IS A RECENT FULL REWRITE OF OUR HIGH-HERITAGE LYON-FEDDER- MOBARRY (LFM) MHD CODE USED EXTENSIVELY FOR SOLAR WIND SIMULATIONS (KNOWN AS LFM-HELIO). GAMERA HAS BEEN WRITTEN IN MODERN FORTRAN IS HIGHLY FLEXIBLE AND PORTABLE. IT FEATURES MULTIPLE IMPROVEMENTS INCLUDING: MINIMAL EXTERNAL LIBRARY DEPENDENCE HIGH DEGREE OF OPTIMIZATION OPENMP AND MPI PARALLELISM ALLOWING USE OF HETEROGENEOUS ARCHITECTURES AND MULTIPLE NUMERICS UPGRADES. THUS WHILE PRESERVING ALL KEY NUMERICAL ALGO- RITHMS UNDERLYING THE LFM CODE GAMERA PROVIDES A ROBUST AND USER-FRIENDLY SOLUTION FOR SUSTAINABLE FUTURE WHICH LENDS ITSELF TO AN EASY AND STRAIGHTFORWARD IMPLEMENTATION IN AN OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT. THE PROJECT IS DIRECTLY RELEVANT TO BOTH NASA AND NOAA GOALS AND TO THE SPECIFIC OBJECTIVES OF THE HSW-O2R PROGRAM IN A NUMBER OF CRITICAL WAYS. THE PROJECT WILL CONTRIBUTE NEW SCIENTIFIC UNDERSTANDING BY INVESTIGATING HELIOSPHERIC CONSEQUENCES OF TIMEDEPENDENT PROCESSES AT THE SUN. THE PROPOSED MODEL IMPROVEMENTS AND DEVELOPMENT WILL ENABLE TRANSITION TO OPERATIONS CONTRIBUTE TO ADVANCEMENT OF OPERATIONAL SPACE WEATHER SERVICES AND ENABLE MECHANISMS FOR SCIENCE AND USER COMMUNITY FEEDBACK VIA INTERACTIVE WEB ACCESS TO THE SIMULATION RESULTS.

$203,903FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA

The Johns Hopkins University

Investigators

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