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CLIMATE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY PROJECTED A DRYING TREND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AIDING SPECULATION OF INCREASING DUST STORMS IN THIS REGION. NEWLY RECONSTRUCTED LONG-TERM DUST CLIMATOLOGY REVEALS DIRECT EVIDENCE OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF DUST STORM ACTIVITY OVER AMERICAN DESERTS IN THE PAST DECADES IN CONTRAST TO REPORTED DECREASING TRENDS IN ASIA AND AFRICA. THE FREQUENCY OF WINDBLOWN DUST STORMS HAS INCREASED 240% FROM 1990S TO 2000S. THE INCREASING DUST ACTIVITY IMPOSES IMMINENT RISKS TO HUMAN HEALTH AND LOCAL ECONOMY IN NUMEROUS WAYS. THERE WAS AN 800% INCREASE IN THE INFECTION RATE OF VALLEY FEVER (COCCIDIOIDOMYCOSIS) AN INFECTIOUS DISEASE CAUSED BY INHALING SOIL-DWELLING FUNGUS IN THE SAME REGION FREQUENTED BY DUST STORMS. EFFECTIVE CONTROL AND PREVENTION MEASURES OF VALLEY FEVER ARE STILL NOT AVAILABLE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS IN LIEU OF KNOWLEDGE-BASED DECISION SUPPORT USUALLY ADOPT COMMON-SENSE PREVENTION MEASURES (E.G. ROADSIDE BILLBOARD TO ADVISE RESIDENTS TO STAY INSIDES DURING WINDY DAYS) TO REDUCE INFECTION. BESIDES VALLEY FEVER THERE ARE OTHER IMMINENT ENVIRONMENTAL AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF RISING DUST STORMS INCLUDING OTHER RESPIRATORY DISEASES HIGHWAY ACCIDENTS AIR TRANSPORTATION DISRUPTION EFFICIENCY LOSS OF SOLAR ENERGY GENERATION SYSTEMS CROP DAMAGES AND LOSS OF SOIL FERTILITY ALL OF WHICH NEGATIVELY AFFECT LOCAL AND REGIONAL ECONOMIES. CONSIDERING THE LARGE STAKES ASSOCIATED WITH THESE HAZARDS IT IS THEREFORE IMPORTANT TO PROVIDE ROBUST DUST FORECASTING SERVICES TO AIR QUALITY HEALTH AND SAFETY AGENCIES TO MITIGATE THE IMPACT OF DUST STORMS IN ORDER TO REDUCE LIFE AND PROPERTY LOSSES. WE PROPOSE TO APPLY NASA SATELLITE PRODUCTS AND NOVEL DATA ASSIMILATION TECHNIQUES TO IMPROVE THE NATION&#1048651S OPERATIONAL DUST STORM FORECASTING SYSTEM SO THAT THE ENHANCED DUST PREDICTION CAN BE INTEGRATED INTO THREE DECISION-SUPPORT SYSTEMS: AIR QUALITY MANAGEMENT VALLEY FEVER SURVEILLANCE AND HIGHWAY SAFETY. OUR TEAM COMPRISED OF DUST FORECASTERS EARTH SCIENTISTS AIR QUALITY AND HEALTH EXPERTS PROPOSES TO CONDUCT THE FOLLOWING TASKS: 1) ENHANCE DUST STORM FORECASTING UNDER THE NATIONAL AIR QUALITY FORECAST CAPABILITY (NAQFC). WE WILL USE MODIS/VIIRS NDVI MODIS/VIIRS BLACK-SKY ALBEDO AND SMAP SOIL MOISTURE TO IMPROVE SOURCE EMISSION THROUGH EMISSION DATA ASSIMILATION. MISR AEROSOL HEIGHT PRODUCT WILL BE USED TO CONSTRAIN VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION AND TRANSPORT. FINALLY WE WILL UTILIZE SATELLITE SUBORBITAL AND GROUND OBSERVATIONS (MODIS/VIIRS/GOES-R AOD AND DUST MASK DISCOVER-AQ AND AIRNOW PM2.5) TO EVALUATE DUST MODEL PERFORMANCE 2) DEVELOP THREE DUST APPLICATIONS. LED BY THREE END-USER ORGANIZATIONS WE WILL INTEGRATE DUST PREDICTION AND OTHER REAL-TIME DATA INTO THREE TAILORED DATA PORTALS TO SUPPORT CORRESPONDING APPLICATIONS. THE FIRST APPLICATION LED BY THE CENTER FOR DISEASE CONTROL AND PREVENTION (CDC) WILL OVERLAY DUST PREDICTION AND OBSERVATIONS WITH INFORMATION ON SOIL MOISTURE CONDITION AND VULNERABLE POPULATIONS TO IMPROVE VALLEY FEVER SURVEILLANCE WITH AN ULTIMATE GOAL TO DEVELOP A MORE EFFECTIVE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR FUTURE OUTBREAKS. THE SECOND APPLICATION LED BY ARIZONA DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY (AZDEQ) WILL UTILIZE THE DUST FORECASTING TO ISSUE EMISSION PERMITS THAT MAY RESULT IN ADDITIONAL DUST EMISSION (E.G. CROPLAND TILLING AND MINING OPERATIONS) AND TO IDENTIFY EXCEEDANCES OF THE NATIONAL AMBIENT AIR QUALITY STANDARDS CAUSED BY WINDBLOWN DUST STORMS. IN OUR THIRD APPLICATION WE WILL PARTNER WITH NEW MEXICO DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION TO DEVELOP A REAL-TIME ROAD VISIBILITY PRODUCT THAT COMBINES MODEL FORECASTING WITH GROUND/SATELLITE OBSERVATIONS AND SOCIAL MEDIA INFORMATION TO PROVIDE RAPIDLY UPDATED VISIBILITY ANOMALY AND HAZARDOUS DRIVING WARNING THROUGH SMART PHONE APPS AND/OR ROADSIDE BILLBOARD.

$928,603FY2020National Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNASA

George Mason University, Fairfax VA

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