SUMMARY: THERE IS AN URGENT CHALLENGE TO IDENTIFYING WHEN AND WHERE ILLEGAL UNREPORTED AND UNREGULATED (IUU) FISHING AND BY WHOM. IT IS A GLOBAL CHALLENGE WITH IUU ACTIVITIES HAPPENING WORLDWIDE AND ONE THAT IS DIFFICULT TO SOLVE BECAUSE ANY VESSEL COMMITTING ILLEGAL ACTIVITIES OFTEN GOES DARK THAT IS VESSELS TURN OFF THEIR GPS TRANSPONDERS. OUR INABILITY TO KNOW WHERE FISHING OCCURS AND WHY AND TO TRACK VESSELS IN REAL- TO NEAR-REAL TIME MAKES PRECISE SHORT AND LONG-TERM FORECASTS OF ILLEGAL FISHING PRESENTLY IMPOSSIBLE. THIS IS A DIRECT CHALLENGE TO THE UN S SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOAL 14 TO CONSERVE AND SUSTAINABLY USE THE OCEANS AND DISPROPORTIONATELY HARMS COASTAL COMMUNITIES WITH LIVELIHOODS AND ECONOMIES BASED ON LEGAL FISHING. OUR PROPOSED RESEARCH OFFERS A PROMISING WAY FORWARD FOR MEASURING SDG INDICATOR 14.4.1 (THE PROPORTION OF FISH STOCKS WITHIN BIOLOGICALLY SUSTAINABLE LEVELS) BY IMPROVED MONITORING OF ILLEGAL FISHING THROUGH EARLY-WARNING SIGNALS OF ANOMALOUS SPATIAL BEHAVIOR OF OBSERVED FLEETS. THIS PROJECT WILL IMPROVE ESTIMATES THROUGH A SYNTHESIS AND ADVANCED ANALYSIS OF NEW GLOBAL DATASETS BASED ON NASA SATELLITE DATA. PROPOSED RESEARCH: THE OVERARCHING GOAL OF THIS PROJECT IS TO IMPROVE ESTIMATES OF SDG INDICATOR 14.4.1 PREDICTING LEGAL AND ILLEGAL FISHING EFFORT. WE WILL MAKE SIGNIFICANT ADVANCES THROUGH A SYNTHESIS OF NEW DATASETS INCLUDING RECENTLY CREATED DATA ON GLOBAL VESSEL LOCATIONS ANALYZED WITH NEW BIG DATA ALGORITHMS. THESE DATA ALONE HAVE LIMITED VALUE AND THIS PROPOSED RESEARCH WILL EXPAND THAT VALUE THROUGH A SYNTHESIS WITH OTHER IMPORTANT (GLOBAL) DATA PRODUCTS: 1) SYNTHESIZE GLOBAL GEOSPATIAL DATASETS DAILY ESTIMATES OF BIOPHYSICAL DRIVERS OF FISHING EFFORT BASED ON GLOBAL REMOTE SENSING TIME SERIES DATA (2012-2018) GLOBAL AIS MARITIME VESSEL LOCATION DATA COLLECTED EVERY 5 MINUTES (2012-2018) GLOBAL DAILY RASTER FISHING EFFORT DERIVED FROM AIS LOCATION DATA AT 0.01DEGREE SPATIAL RESOLUTION (2012-2018). 2) IMPROVE MONITORING OF FISHING VESSELS USING NASA S BLACK MARBLE NIGHTTIME LIGHTS PRODUCT AND AIS DATA (GLOBALLY 2012-2018 SEE FIGURE 2). 3) DEVELOP STATISTICAL AND MACHINE LEARNING MODELS TO EXPLAIN AND PREDICT PATTERNS OF FISHING BASED ON BIOPHYSICAL VARIABLES. 4) USE METHODS FROM BEHAVIORAL ECOLOGY GEOSPATIAL STATISTICS AND COMPLEX SYSTEMS SCIENCE TO PREDICT ILLEGAL FISHING FROM THE ANOMALOUS SPATIAL BEHAVIOR OF OBSERVED FLEETS. FOCUS ON AREAS OF HIGH VESSEL DENSITY: THE PATAGONIA SHELF OFF SOUTH AFRICA AND THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND INDONESIA. 5) IDENTIFY PAST TRENDS IN ANOMALOUS SPATIAL BEHAVIOR AND PROJECT PATTERNS OF FISHING EFFORT INTO THE FUTURE USING CMIP5 DATA; COMPARE AGAINST FISHERIES METRICS (E.G. MULTISPECIES MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE YIELD) TO INFORM SDG INDICATOR 14.4.1. BROADER IMPACTS: THIS IS A TYPE A: RESEARCH PROPOSAL AS THE TOOLS AVAILABLE TO ESTIMATE LEGAL AND ILLEGAL FISHING AT GLOBAL SCALES (IN NEAR REAL-TIME) NEED SIGNIFICANT BASIC ADVANCES BEFORE APPLICATION BY USER ORGANIZATIONS. OUR BASIC RESEARCH DIRECTLY ADDRESSES THE SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT GOAL 14 ITS TARGET AND INDICATOR. IN QUANTIFYING ILLEGAL (AND LEGAL) FISHING THIS WORK WILL ALSO INFORM INDICATOR 14.2.1 (PROPORTION OF NATIONAL EXCLUSIVE ECONOMIC ZONES MANAGED USING ECOSYSTEM-BASED APPROACH) AND INDICATOR 14.5.1 (COVERAGE OF PROTECTED AREAS IN RELATION TO MARINE AREAS). FURTHERMORE OUR WORK WILL HAVE IMPACTS BEYOND A FOCUS ONLY ON MONITORING PROGRESS. MANY INDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES SEAFOOD SUPPLYING COMPANIES INTERGOVERNMENTAL (E.G. INTERPOL) AND QUASIGOVERNMENTAL ORGANIZATIONS (E.G. REGIONAL FISHERIES MANAGEMENT ORGANIZATIONS) AND NGOS ARE ALSO ALL KEENLY INTERESTED IN TRACKING APPREHENDING DETERRING ILLEGAL FISHING. HENCE WHILE OUR CORE OBJECTIVE IS TO INFORM SDG 14 OUR RESULTS HAVE UTILITY TO A MUCH BROADER GROUP OF CONSTITUENTS AND IN SERVICE OF ENFORCEMENT AND DETERRENCE NOT JUST MONITORING THE PROGRESS OF SDG 14.